朱嘉明:區塊鏈對深入改革的意義何在?

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"區塊鏈技術的功能和制度意義"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"研究院的柏亮和張洪爲兩位同事,已經對區塊鏈的來龍去脈、基本概念和技術原理、政策和產業發展做了比較系統的介紹。現在我談談區塊鏈值得強調的幾個方面:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一、如何理解區塊鏈是一種技術?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"區塊鏈是一種技術,但是,區塊鏈既不屬於是典型的硬技術,也不屬於通常意義的軟技術。例如,一個機械發明是硬技術,無人駕駛飛機也是近年來的硬技術。對於這樣的硬技術,大家看得見、摸得着。軟技術,人們近年來接觸的越來越多,像支付寶、餘額寶就是進入到日常生活的軟技術。而區塊鏈即有硬技術含量,又有軟技術含量。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在教室和講堂向聽衆展現什麼是區塊鏈,這是相當困難的事情。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1.  區塊鏈的基礎是數學和密碼學"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"多少年來,密碼學是數學的一個重要分支。很多諜戰片都涉及發報和收報,其基礎就是數字組成的密碼。設計和破譯密碼,都需要密碼學。著名的摩爾密碼就是密碼學的重要成就。但是,沒有人想到在21世紀之後,密碼學催生出來了區塊鏈。大家解釋區塊鏈如此的困難,因爲區塊鏈的核心基礎是數學和密碼學。如果能夠輕而易舉的把密碼學說清楚,那麼今天就很容易理解區塊鏈,而密碼學是很難在短時間內說清楚的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2.  區塊鏈涉及了相當廣泛的硬技術和軟技術"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"介紹和解釋區塊鏈就要涉及相當多的概念,進而發生概念A需要概念B解釋,B需要C解釋,C又回到A概念的情況,概念套概念。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果一個概念不清楚,會阻礙下一個概念和原理。這是今天理解區塊鏈的最大困難。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"過去兩三年中,國內出版區塊鏈的書不下幾十種。我也爲至少其中的五、六本寫過序言。但是,並沒有一本書可以被公認爲是一個權威的區塊鏈書籍,大學也沒有權威的區塊鏈教科書,這是今天的現狀。爲了解決這樣的困境,數字資產研究院在主持編寫一部區塊鏈詞典,所涉及的相關名詞達到了數千條。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所以,對於沒有接觸區塊鏈的朋友們來講,在短時間內理解區塊鏈並非易事。即使在區塊鏈領域中打滾了兩三年的人,能理解和說明區塊鏈的全部特徵和全部功能也是相當大的挑戰。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"二、塊鏈與傳統經濟和數字經濟是怎樣的關係?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"區塊鏈是一個連接傳統經濟和數字經濟的橋樑。傳統經濟大家都非常清楚,第一、第二、第三產業,都是看得見、摸得着,或能體驗到的產業。例如,在第三產業中有看電影、去餐館喫飯,都是身心可以直接感受的過程。第二產業的加工業,生產出物質產品,無論是鞋還是汽車,人們都可以體驗其使用價值。至於第一產業,特別是農業,“民以食爲天”,與人們生產生活更是息息相關。進入到21世紀,通過傳統產業,已經在世界範圍內大體解決了民衆的溫飽和基本生存問題,完全飢寒交迫、衣不遮體的時代在世界的整體範圍內變成非常少數的局部現象。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"與傳統經濟不同,數字經濟是一種新型經濟形態。兩者最大的差別是:數字經濟是將所有的經濟行爲數字化和數據化。這個數字化和數據化是以計算機0和1語言爲基礎的。對於傳統實體經濟而言,也離不開數字,例如,產值、成本、利潤、工資,向國家交稅,都離不開數字的。但是,這種數字不是數字經濟的數字,因爲不是基於計算機的語言,計算機的程序,和0和1編碼的數字。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"爲了說明這個差別,以音樂產品爲例。原本的音樂傳播,主要通過歌唱家的真實演唱會。歌唱家提供藝術服務,聽衆享受音樂藝術付款,所以,屬於典型的第三產業。之後,通過錄音設備製作了唱片、磁帶,但是,其傳播有限,在後來,CD引入了數碼技術,只是到了移動互聯網時代,音樂可以通過智能手機無障礙傳播。爲什麼?因爲音樂產業實現了通過0和1的代碼改造的數字化。電影和電視產品也是如此。也就是說,音樂、電影和電視產品,同時具備傳統經濟和數字經濟的特徵。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在不知不覺的過程中,現在每一個人都處於既在傳統經濟中生活、生存、工作,也同時在數字經濟中生活、生存與工作的狀態。於是,就產生了一個問題,如何完成從傳統經濟到數字經濟的轉化?怎麼能夠使這個轉化具有真實可信的基礎?區塊鏈應運而生。或者說,沒有區塊鏈也可以完成傳統經濟到數字經濟的轉化,但是不能保證你從實體經濟到數字經濟轉化的真實性和準確性。由此,區塊鏈構成了新的經濟基礎。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人們常說,眼見爲實。但是,現實生活運行不可能都通過每個人的“眼見爲實”。以煤炭爲例:一噸煤就是一噸煤,如果把一噸煤從這個地方運到另一個地方證明一噸煤的存在,實在勞民傷財,於是需要把一噸煤變成以數據形態表示的煤。但是,怎麼證明以數字體現的這噸煤是真實存在的?過去方法很多,但是,都有缺陷和漏洞。現在,區塊鏈是最可信的技術。區塊鏈的溯源功能不僅可以證明一噸煤存在的真實性,而且還可以證明這一噸煤的品種和質量。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"現代經濟是不斷擴展的過程,從農村到城市,從城市到國家,從國家到全球,所有的物流和信息流都需要被證明。證明的方法不是把什麼東西都運來運去,這是沒有可能的。現在產生了一個技術,就是區塊鏈。區塊鏈是人類經濟活動不斷擴大、規模不斷擴展之後,減少相互信任和相互證明成本的唯一道路。在未來日益複雜的世界,在難以對每個人都驗明真身的情況下,區塊鏈徹底解決了如何證明“我媽是我媽”的問題。沒有區塊鏈,當代世界的信任成本會無限增大。進一步說,區塊鏈就是將平行的實體經濟和數字經濟連接在一起的橋樑。沒有這個橋樑,兩者是沒有辦法平行和對接的。而今天全世界必須向數字化轉型,沒有區塊鏈不能完成這樣的轉型。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"三、區塊鏈具有哪些基本功能?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"關於區塊鏈的功能有不同的說法,我更傾向於這樣三個方面:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1.  區塊鏈是一種新基礎結構"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"區塊鏈就像電、水、公路、互聯網一樣,已經成爲了一個新的基礎結構。在未來的設計中,沒有區塊鏈的基礎結構是殘缺的,甚至不能運行。這個未來不會很久遠,大概需要幾年的時間。正像十多年前,每個人都要用電子郵件,人們不能想象電子郵件是可以被超越的。微信、推特等社交工具的普及,大概不過十年左右的時間。現在我們正在向區塊鏈大衆化階段過渡。區塊鏈進入社會生產、產業體系、政府管理、甚至家庭生活,僅僅是時間問題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2.  區塊鏈是一種經濟組織"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3.  區塊鏈推動信息價值化,實現數據轉變爲生產要素"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"現在世界處於新冠疫情狀態,與疫情相關的數據是海量的,天文數字級別的,各國處理這些數據的工作是極爲艱鉅的,最主要的工作是甄別真假數據。區塊鏈普及之後,基於區塊鏈的數據和信息,具有天然的可信度。這樣的困難就相對容易解決。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"四、區塊鏈如何推動傳統產業數字化轉型?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"傳統產業完成數字化的轉型,區塊鏈可以提供關鍵技術。從去年開始,人們聚焦區塊鏈應用的兩條思路。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一條思路是區塊鏈和新型產業結合,形成新型產業化的區塊鏈,進展相對的容易。例如,像“抖音”天然貼近數字化。所以抖音這類產業是很容易被區塊鏈化的,因爲它本來就基於數字經濟產生的。因爲疫情,導致“釘釘”和“zoom”的用戶快速膨脹,因爲“釘釘”和“zoom”本身就是數字技術公司,如果這類產業區塊鏈化,相當簡單。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一條思路是區塊鏈與傳統產業結合,併爲傳統產業數字化轉型賦能。現在的關鍵是要解決如何是改造傳統產業,怎樣實現應用和賦能?進展相對困難的多。例如,餐飲業是典型的傳統行業,餐飲業要不要區塊鏈?又怎麼樣區塊鏈?一般來說,餐飲業區塊鏈需要實現從上游到下游的“供應鏈”和“價值鏈”的雙重區塊鏈。在技術上,需要將鏈條分解成不同的環節,把不同的環節連接在一起。這個過程可以用聯盟鏈來解決。不是說整個飲食業可以由一個聯盟鏈組成,海底撈可以有它自己供應鏈上的聯盟鏈,麥當勞也可以有它自己的,整個產業會被無數的不同的聯盟鏈重構。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從去年末到今年初,翟紅董事長多次提出區塊鏈和煤炭產業結合的課題。這無疑是一個意義重大,也是個極有挑戰的課題。因爲,探討和試驗區塊鏈與煤炭產業的結合,涉及到區塊鏈和煤炭工業兩個領域,這可能不僅在中國,很可能在世界範圍內也是首次。我反覆思考區塊鏈與煤炭產業的結合問題,煤炭產業引進和應用區塊鏈具有巨大的發展空間,有以下三點與大家分享:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1.  加速煤炭資源數字化"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"煤炭首先是一個天然礦產資源,開採出來的煤炭僅僅是煤炭資源的一個部分。整體的和動態的煤炭資源需要數字化和數據化。現在思路已經十分清楚,唯有通過區塊鏈,煤炭資源,例如煤炭儲量的數據最終實現可以追溯、不可更改,高度可信。不僅如此,唯有通過區塊鏈才能夠把煤炭儲量這樣的數字變成數字資產。這個意義很大,涉及到煤炭資源可否像石油資源一樣數字化、金融化,實現可持續開發。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2.  實現煤炭產業價值鏈重組"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"煤炭產業雖然歷史悠久,但是也在不斷現代化,煤炭產業鏈和價值鏈呈現不斷拉長的趨勢。區塊鏈有助於以原煤開發爲中心的煤炭產業從開採、發電、煤化工、以及支持煤炭產業的技術、金融板塊的重組。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3.  推動煤炭產業管理創新"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"炭工業曾經是勞動密集產業,現在正在向技術密集型產業轉型。所以,煤炭產業需要通過區塊鏈實現管理形態和管理方式的創新,空間極大,其中核心部分是建立新的員工激勵體制。在這方面,張洪爲已經做了具體的說明,我就不展開了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"五、區塊鏈對深入改革的意義何在?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自1970年代末期所實行的經濟改革,並非簡單地否定傳統的計劃經濟體制和建立市場經濟體制。改革的根本目的是爲了建立一個富有效率的經濟制度,爲此需要構建每個社會成員的積極性得以充分調動的機制。經過40餘年的改革,同時也借鑑國際經驗,共享經濟是重要的選擇。區塊鏈有助於共享經濟的建立,至少可以向共享經濟賦能。在未來區塊鏈和實體經濟融合的過程中,區塊鏈有助於經濟組織變革,推動每個企業不斷增加共享經濟的成分,實現對每一個生產者貢獻記錄的精準性、及時性和完整性,保障他們的利益。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"總之,區塊鏈有助於傳統企業社會化,成爲共享經濟網絡的節點,使得包括企業在內的經濟組織都成爲區塊鏈的受益者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"總結"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1.  區塊鏈是一種獨特的科技,既不可能像一般的硬科技那樣展現在人們面前,也不是一般的軟技術,立即讓人們受益。區塊鏈是一種技術體系和新的基礎結構。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2.  數據作爲生產要素的功能,需要通過區塊鏈實現。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3.  區塊鏈是傳統經濟和數字經濟的橋樑。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4.  更重要的是,區塊鏈對於建立更有效率的經濟體制和經濟組織意義重大,也將爲共享經濟提供技術條件。2019年10月,中國將區塊鏈提升到國家戰略的高度,是基於決策層對於區塊鏈全面和深刻的理解。區塊鏈對中國經濟體制進一步改革和數字經濟形成,以及實現經濟可持續發展具有重大意義。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}
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