民調不靠譜？人工智能預測拜登獲勝

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"預測美國大選，人工智能會比民調更準確嗎？"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"本文最初發表於 venturebeat，由 InfoQ 中文站翻譯並分享。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"預測美國 2020 年總統大選結果的一些民調似乎並沒有實現準確的猜測。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"聚合網站 RealClearPolitics 的數據顯示，前副總統拜登比現任總統特朗普領先 7 個百分點，而 FiveThirtyEight 的數據顯示，拜登在全國平均至少領先 8 個百分點。實際上，這場大選更加激烈。例如，在佛羅里達州，FiveThirtyEight 顯示拜登以 2.5 個百分點的領先優勢贏得勝利，但特朗普卻在邁阿密 - 戴德縣獲得了意想不到的支持。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"民意調查並非一門完美的科學。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2016 年大選前的報告顯示，希拉里在全國領先，在威斯康星州、密歇根州和賓夕法尼亞州等州的競爭更爲激烈。但特朗普最終獲得了贏得大選所需的 270 張選舉人票。一份來自美國民意研究協會（American Association for Public Opinion Research）的報告得出結論，稱州一級的民調“低估了特朗普在上中西部地區的支持率”，預測人士指出，這些州缺乏高質量的民調數據。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}