21個2021年軟件開發趨勢預測

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對於軟件開發行業來說,2020年是意義重大的一年,許多領域都取得了重大突破。本文將基於來自認證來源的數據、圖表和事實,根據過去來預測未來。如果你想要了解軟件行業在2021年會有哪些變化,請閱讀本文,本文涵蓋了雲、邊緣計算、容器、量子、區塊鏈、人工智能、深度學習、批處理、流式處理、數據庫、編程、軟件架構、Web、App、低代碼、無代碼等重要方向。"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"本文最初發佈於Towards Data Science("},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/21-predictions-about-the-software-development-trends-in-2021-600bfa048be","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《21 Predictions about the Software Development Trends in 2021》"}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"),由InfoQ翻譯並分享。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2020年是近代史上史無前例的一年。人類在過去一百年中都沒有經歷過像COVID-19這樣的全球性大流行病。它影響了我們星球上所有的國家、部門和幾乎所有的個人。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"好消息是我們馬上就會擁有疫苗,終於可以滿懷樂觀和希望迎接新的2021年。對於軟件開發行業來說,2020年是意義重大的一年,在許多領域都取得了重大突破。COVID-19顯著加快了數字化轉型,而且2021年的數字化轉型趨勢會更明顯。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一年以前,我寫了一篇文章來預測2020年的軟件開發趨勢:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/piUh6NWQCu8GZW1v8eQg","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《20個2020年軟件開發趨勢預測》"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在軟件開發行業,一年幾乎就是一光年。我沒有更新舊帖子,而是創建了一個新的預測清單,預測2021年軟件開發行業的"},{"type":"text","text":"重要技術趨勢"},{"type":"text","text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"做預測是一項有風險的任務。但是我會使用來自認證來源的數據、圖表和事實,根據過去來預測未來。如果你想要了解軟件行業在2021年有哪些變化,請閱讀本文。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1. 集中式基礎設施:雲,無處不在的雲"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在COVID-19期間,大部分行業遭受了沉重的打擊,儘管只有少數行業。雲是朝陽行業,在大流行期間,它實際上比以往任何時候都更強大。如果在雲應用方面存在任何疑問和不確定性,COVID-19已經消除了這一點。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"像Corona這樣的全球性災難表明,"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"我們不僅需要雲升級規模,也需要降低規模"},{"type":"text","text":",例如,當我們的服務需求顯著下降時。想想旅遊和運輸行業,他們不得不維護昂貴的數據中心,儘管他們的市場下降了90%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Forrester預測,全球公"},{"type":"text","text":"有"},{"type":"text","text":"雲IT基礎設施將在2021年增長35%至1200億美元:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/go.forrester.com\/blogs\/predictions-2021-cloud-computing-powers-pandemic-recovery\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Amazon to help 29 million people grow their tech skills with free cloud computing skills training"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2. 分散式基礎設施:邊緣計算將出現指數級增長"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在公有云中,我們希望有一個集中的數據中心來提供數據和計算能力。但在許多場景中,我們有相反的需求,例如,數據和計算能力接近終端用戶。有些是非常低的延遲(5到20ms)、高帶寬、監管原因、實時用例、智能且強大的終端設備等等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雖然邊緣計算是一個老概念,並且我們已經在"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Content_delivery_network","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"內容交付網絡"}]},{"type":"text","text":" (Content Delivery Network,CDN)中使用邊緣計算,但近年來它正變得越來越流行。隨着"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"互聯車輛(自動汽車、無人機)、在線遊戲、物聯網、智能設備和邊緣AI\/ML"},{"type":"text","text":"的興起,邊緣計算將在2021年及以後成爲一個巨大的市場。邊緣計算將在2021年成爲關鍵的另一個原因是5G移動設備的興起。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2021年,兩個行業集團將爭奪邊緣計算的市場份額。其中一個集團是公"},{"type":"text","text":"有"},{"type":"text","text":"雲提供商,例如"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"亞馬遜、微軟、谷歌"},{"type":"text","text":",如下所述:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/siliconangle.com\/2020\/12\/01\/edge-new-cloud-battleground-isnt-cloud\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Out on edge: The new cloud battleground isn't in the cloud at all - SiliconANGLE"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在這方面,"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"亞馬遜"},{"type":"text","text":"是"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/aws.amazon.com\/snow\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"AWS Snow family"}]},{"type":"text","text":"、"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/aws.amazon.com\/greengrass\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"AWS IoT Greengrass"}]},{"type":"text","text":"等許多服務的領導者。"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"微軟"},{"type":"text","text":"也提供"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/azure.microsoft.com\/en-us\/products\/azure-stack\/edge\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Azure Stack Edge"}]},{"type":"text","text":"、"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/azure.microsoft.com\/en-us\/solutions\/low-latency-edge-computing\/#edge-zones","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Azure Edge Zone"}]},{"type":"text","text":"等邊緣計算服務。谷歌也使用"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/cloud.google.com\/solutions\/anthos-edge","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Google Anthos"}]},{"type":"text","text":"將它的數據中心服務轉移到終端用戶。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一個集團是已經具備邊緣基礎設施的行業,例如電信公司、數據中心提供商、網絡提供商。如果它們能夠快速行動並利用它們的優勢(例如,現有的基礎設施),他們就有機會在這方面發揮領導作用。混合雲提供商RedHat(IBM)憑藉其混合雲平臺"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.openshift.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"OpenShift"}]},{"type":"text","text":"和"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.openstack.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"OpenStack"}]},{"type":"text","text":"的參與,將成爲這裏的關鍵選手。最近,"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"三星"},{"type":"text","text":"與IBM合作開發邊緣計算解決方案:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.thefastmode.com\/technology-solutions\/18721-samsung-ibm-to-develop-edge-computing-5g-and-hybrid-cloud-solutions-for-industry-4-0","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Samsung, IBM to Develop Edge Computing, 5G and Hybrid Cloud Solutions for Industry 4.0"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/stateoftheedge.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"State of the Edge"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是爲邊緣計算制定開放標準,使邊緣計算供應商中立的倡議。最近State of the Edge成爲了Linux基金會的一部分。與CNCF一樣,在2021年及以後,State of the Edge也將獲得更多高光時刻。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"請爲2021年及以後邊緣計算領域的許多創新、融合、並肩戰鬥和標準化做好準備。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3. 雲:AWS領先,但多雲會是未來"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在公"},{"type":"text","text":"有"},{"type":"text","text":"雲供應商中,誰是領導者是毫無疑問的。在2020年第三季度,亞馬遜以32%的市場份額領跑公"},{"type":"text","text":"有"},{"type":"text","text":"雲市場,如下所示:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.canalys.com\/newsroom\/worldwide-cloud-market-q320","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Global cloud infrastructure market Q3 2020"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"微軟在其雲產品方面表現強勁,在2020年實現了48%的年度增長。在2020年第三季度,微軟的市場份額爲19%,而它在2019年第三季度的市場份額爲17%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"目前,谷歌是第三大公有云提供商,在2020年第三季度的市場份額爲7%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,亞馬遜和微軟將分別保持第一和第二的位置。然而,阿里巴巴將在2021年取代谷歌,因爲它在2020年第三季度的市場份額爲6%,僅次於谷歌。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外,多雲倡議將在2021年獲得更大的發展勢頭。許多公司也轉向了多雲策略。"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"中情局(CIA)"},{"type":"text","text":"最近將其雲合同授予了多個雲供應商而不是單個供應商:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.bizjournals.com\/washington\/news\/2020\/11\/20\/microsoft-aws-among-c2e-cloud-contract-awardees.html","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Microsoft, AWS among C2E cloud provider contract awardees - Washington Business Journal"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"直到現在,亞馬遜還不願意加入多雲倡議來保護它的市場份額。但正如我們10年前在微軟身上看到的那樣,整個行業和社區比最大的單個公司更強大。最近,亞馬遜已經悄然加入了多雲倡議:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.protocol.com\/manuals\/new-enterprise\/aws-multicloud-era","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"AWS quietly enters the multi-cloud era"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雲"},{"type":"text","text":"原生"},{"type":"text","text":"計算基金會(Cloud Native Computing Foundation ,CNCF) 在多雲運動中扮演着關鍵角色,可以說已經超過了Linux基金會。在2021年,我們可以看到CNCF有更多增長。此外,像"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashicorp.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"HashiCorp"}]},{"type":"text","text":"這樣的多雲服務供應商會變得更加重要。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一些突出的項目也提供了與流行的特定供應商的雲服務的API兼容性,例如 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/min.io\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"MinIO"}]},{"type":"text","text":"(提供兼容AWS S3 的對象存儲)。在2021年,將會有更多類似MinIO的倡議,這樣我們就可以輕鬆地切換受歡迎的供應商的服務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這對整個行業來說是個好消息,正如我夢想的那樣,公司可以在多個雲上無縫部署它們的應用程序。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4. 容器化:Kubernets"},{"type":"text","text":"稱王"},{"type":"text","text":",Docker"},{"type":"text","text":"將"},{"type":"text","text":"退場"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"容器化是雲原生IT的核心技術,無論是公"},{"type":"text","text":"有"},{"type":"text","text":"雲、私有云,甚至是邊緣計算。幾年來,"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/kubernetes.io\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Kubernetes"}]},{"type":"text","text":"已經成爲領先的容器編排和管理技術。就像Linux之前統治着數據中心一樣,Kubernetes也統治着公"},{"type":"text","text":"有"},{"type":"text","text":"雲和私有云。起初,谷歌是Kubernetes背後的主導力量,但是現在幾乎所有的巨頭科技公司都支持Kubernetes。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所有主要的公"},{"type":"text","text":"有"},{"type":"text","text":"雲提供商現在都提供託管的Kubernets服務("},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/aws.amazon.com\/eks\/?whats-new-cards.sort-by=item.additionalFields.postDateTime&whats-new-cards.sort-order=desc&eks-blogs.sort-by=item.additionalFields.createdDate&eks-blogs.sort-order=desc","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Amazon EKS"}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"、"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/docs.microsoft.com\/en-us\/azure\/aks\/intro-kubernetes","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Azure AKS"}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"、"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/cloud.google.com\/kubernetes-engine","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Google GKE"}]},{"type":"text","text":")以及它們的託管容器化服務。另一方面,RedHat正在使用"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.openshift.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"OpenShift"}]},{"type":"text","text":"在私有云中提供託管的Kubernetes服務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,我們將看到更多對Kubernetes的採用,因爲它是混合雲或多雲戰略的核心組件。非傳統企業應用程序,如AI\/ML、數據庫、數據平臺、無服務器和邊緣計算應用程序也將轉移到Kubernetes。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一方面,"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.docker.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Docker"}]},{"type":"text","text":"正在慢慢失去它作爲一種現代化技術的魅力。已經有一些倡議來標準化容器格式和運行時,其中兩個在最近幾年得到了巨大的推動。一方面是Kubernetes引領的容器運行時接口("},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/github.com\/kubernetes\/kubernetes\/blob\/242a97307b34076d5d8f5bbeb154fa4d97c9ef1d\/docs\/devel\/container-runtime-interface.md","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Container Runtime Interface"}]},{"type":"text","text":",CRI)。另一方面是Linux基金會引領的開放容器倡議("},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/opencontainers.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Open Container Initiative,OCI"}]},{"type":"text","text":")。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最近,Kubernetes棄用Docker而支持CRI,並計劃在2021年的後續Kubernetes版本(1.22)中完全移除Docker:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/sdtimes.com\/kubernetes\/kubernetes-to-deprecate-docker-container-runtime-in-v1-22\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Kubernetes to deprecate Docker container runtime in v1.22 - SD Times"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由於Kubernetes是容器生態系統中的巨頭,2021年將會是Docker終結的開始。從好的方面看,CRI和OCI在2021年會獲得更大的發展勢頭,尤其是基於CRI的容器將在2021年獲得巨大的爆發式增長。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"5. 計算:量子計算將得到推動"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Quantum_computing","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"量子計算"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是這個清單上最具革命性的技術。就像數字計算機一樣,它有潛力影響每一個領域。我已經創建了一份2030年代最熱技術的清單,而量子計算排名第一:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/10-predictions-about-the-software-development-trends-in-the-2030s-2fab86c5f661","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"10 Predictions about the Software Development trends in the 2030s"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"換個角度看:如果我們把當今最先進的超級計算機當作正常人類,例如,一名象棋選手或者一個8年級數學學生,那麼量子計算就是像馬格努斯·卡爾斯(Magnus Carles)這樣的超級天才,他可以同時和50名普通象棋選手對弈,或者像歐拉(Euler)這樣的天才數學家。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2020年,量子計算有了一些重大的突破和進步。在2020年6月,"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"霍尼韋爾(Honeywell)"},{"type":"text","text":"聲稱其創建了最強大的量子計算機,打破了谷歌之前創造的記錄:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/davidjeans\/2020\/06\/19\/honeywell-says-it-has-built-the-worlds-most-powerful-quantum-computer\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Honeywell Says It Has Built The World's Most Powerful Quantum Computer"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"許多政府和科技巨頭都在探索和投資量子計算。谷歌和IBM是這個領域的兩個最大的選手。谷歌甚至推出了一個開源庫"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.tensorflow.org\/quantum","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TensorFlow Quantum (TFQ)"}]},{"type":"text","text":",用於製作量子機器學習模型的原型:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/neural\/2020\/03\/09\/google-launches-tensorflow-for-quantum-computers\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Google launches TensorFlow for quantum computers"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"亞馬遜也通過其"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/aws.amazon.com\/braket\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Amazon Braket"}]},{"type":"text","text":"雲服務提供託管的量子計算服務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"考慮到其巨大的利潤和無限的可能性,2021年計算機量子將有一些突破和驚人的發現。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果你想要探索量子計算,那麼你可以使用開源SDK "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/qiskit.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"qiskit"}]},{"type":"text","text":",它還提供了免費課程:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/qiskit.org\/learn\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Qiskit Learn"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"6. 區塊鏈:過山車仍將繼續"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Blockchain","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"區塊鏈"}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":" (分佈式賬本)"},{"type":"text","text":"也是近年來開發的主要顛覆性技術之一。就技術而言,它有改變整個行業的潛力。雖然加密貨幣在普及這項技術方面發揮了重要作用。它在推動這項技術走向Gartner的炒作週期曲線("},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hype_cycle","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Gartner’s Hype Cycle curve"}]},{"type":"text","text":")的“期望膨脹期”方面也扮演了主要角色。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"許多流氓實體利用比特幣"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bitcoin.org\/en\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Bitcoin"}]},{"type":"text","text":"的流行,製造詐騙項目來欺騙那些想在短時間內暴富的普通人。現在,區塊鏈正經歷炒作週期曲線的“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"幻滅低谷"},{"type":"text","text":"”。另外,政府正在干預加密貨幣來防止詐騙。最近,中國政府查獲了一個加密貨幣詐騙“Plus Token龐氏騙局”:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/chinese-authorities-have-seized-a-massive-4-billion-in-crypto-from-plustoken-scam","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Chinese Authorities Have Seized a Massive $4B in Crypto From PlusToken Scam - CoinDesk"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Facebook"},{"type":"text","text":"在2019年發佈了它的加密貨幣"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Libra"},{"type":"text","text":",但在2020年面臨巨大的監管壓力:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2020\/3\/3\/21163658\/facebook-libra-cryptocurrency-token-ditching-plans-calibra-wallet-delay","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Facebook is shifting its Libra cryptocurrency plans after intense regulatory pressure"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"其它開源區塊鏈,如以太坊("},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Ethereum"},{"type":"text","text":"),正在將代碼放入區塊中,使它能夠用於智能合約,這是區塊鏈的未來。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,區塊鏈將更多地作爲一種智能合約機制使用,有望進入“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"啓蒙斜坡(Slope of Englishtenment)"},{"type":"text","text":"”階段。區塊鏈將在2021年獲得重大爆發,中國已經將它納入其雄心勃勃的50萬億“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"新基建"},{"type":"text","text":"”計劃:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/news.8btc.com\/blockchain-officially-included-in-chinas-50-trillion-new-infrastructure-plan","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Blockchain Officially Included in China's 50 Trillion \"New Infrastructure\" Plan | NEWS.8BTC.COM"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"7. 人工智能:AI將惠及所有人"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作爲近來最熱門的技術之一,人工智能在2020年也取得了許多突破。另一個有意思的趨勢是,人工智能開始以“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"全民AI(AI for all)"},{"type":"text","text":"”的口號進入所有領域。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在自然語言處理領域,GPT-3是2020年5月取得的最大的突破。美國公司"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/openai.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"OpenAI"}]},{"type":"text","text":"創建了"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/GPT-3","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"GPT-3"}]},{"type":"text","text":",使得使用深度學習創建類似人類的文本成爲可能。僅僅過了4個月,當《衛報》用GPT-3撰寫了以下文章時,全世界都一起爲之震驚:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2020\/sep\/08\/robot-wrote-this-article-gpt-3","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"A robot wrote this entire article. Are you scared yet, human? | GPT-3"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,自然語言處理將取得突破性進展,人工智能將撰寫文章或編寫小型應用程序。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一個有趣的發展是"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/dotdata.com\/products\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"AutoML 2.0"}]},{"type":"text","text":",它支持工程自動化。在2021年,全週期人工智能自動化將取得重大進展,人工智能將更加平民化。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人工智能並不是沒有偏見的,"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ethics_of_artificial_intelligence","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有道德的人工智能"}]},{"type":"text","text":"正變得越來越有吸引力。人工智能領域的另一個主要趨勢是"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Explainable_artificial_intelligence","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"可解釋的人工智能"}]},{"type":"text","text":",即人工智能爲什麼做出某種決定需要一個解釋。在2021年,隨着"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"歐盟"},{"type":"text","text":"對解釋人工智能的決定製定法規,這些領域將取得重大進展。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人工智能在2021年及以後也將在航空業得到廣泛應用。就在幾天前,美國空軍用人工智能作爲副駕駛來駕駛了一架飛機:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.airforcemag.com\/u-2-flies-with-artificial-intelligence-as-its-co-pilot\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"U-2 Flies with Artificial Intelligence as Its Co-Pilot - Air Force Magazine"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人工智能也將成爲未來中國數字基礎設施的核心:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.enterpriseai.news\/2020\/06\/24\/ai-key-to-china-infrastructure-plan-as-is-ai-talent\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"AI is Key to China Infrastructure Plan, as is AI Talent"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"預計到2021年,人工智能會有許多令人振奮的創新和平民化。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"8. 深度學習庫:TensorFlow 2.0 和 PyTorch"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"谷歌"},{"type":"text","text":"和"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Facebook"},{"type":"text","text":"是深度學習和神經網絡領域的兩大主導者。谷歌的主要業務是搜索能力,它是自然語言處理領域的領先創新者。Facebook的主要業務是社交網絡,它必須處理圖像、視頻和文本。在圖像處理領域,Facebook是技術領導者,有許多創新。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"出自谷歌的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.tensorflow.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TensorFlow"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是深度學習領域的領先的庫,但是2016年Facebook發佈了PyTorch後一切都發生了變化。"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/pytorch.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"PyTorch"}]},{"type":"text","text":"使用動態圖而不是(TensorFlow使用的)靜態圖,並且對Python更加友好。作爲迴應,谷歌在2019年創建了TensorFlow 2.0,複製了PyTorch的很多功能(動態圖、對Python友好)。它還與谷歌的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/notebooks\/intro.ipynb","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Collab"}]},{"type":"text","text":"完美結合(Collab是一款非常現代且功能強大的筆記本)。從那時起,谷歌的TensorFlow 2.0就越來越受歡迎。目前,根據Stack Overflow開發者調研2020,TensorFlow是最流行的深度學習框架:"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/4e\/4ec18db900546f901b42622877d2404d.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}],"text":"圖片來源:"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/insights.stackoverflow.com\/survey\/2020","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Stack Overflow Developer Survey, 2020"}],"marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一方面,開發人員喜歡用PyTorch工作,它以更好的開發人員工效學而更受開發人員的喜愛:"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/5e\/5e8bced2ed21593d8b307071e15bcc86.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}],"text":"圖片來源:"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/insights.stackoverflow.com\/survey\/2020","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Stack Overflow Developer Survey, 2020"}],"marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,TensorFlow 2.0和PyTorch將成爲企業和社區的“首選”庫。擁有TensorFlow代碼庫或者想要使用Collab筆記本的企業應該使用TensorFlow 2.0。剛進入深度學習或者想要繼續使用Juypter筆記本的企業或個人應該選擇PyTorch。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"9. 數據存儲:一個尺寸不能填滿所有"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"現代數據庫的前景充滿選擇和廣泛的變化。我們有經典的SQL數據庫,主要是四大數據庫:"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.mysql.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"MySQL"}]},{"type":"text","text":"、 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.oracle.com\/database\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Oracle"}]},{"type":"text","text":"、 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Microsoft_SQL_Server","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"MS-SQL"}]},{"type":"text","text":"、 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.postgresql.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"PostgreSQL"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。我們也有NoSQL數據庫,主要由一系列數據庫組成:"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"文檔、鍵值對、寬列、時間序列、搜索、圖"},{"type":"text","text":"。還有許多其它類型的數據存儲。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我們最近看到了所謂的全球分佈式ACID事務數據庫或者"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/NewSQL","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"NewSQL"}]},{"type":"text","text":"數據庫。谷歌憑藉"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/cloud.google.com\/spanner","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Google Spanner"}]},{"type":"text","text":"成爲這個領域的領導者,Google Spanner是首個水平讀\/寫可伸縮的ACID兼容數據庫。亞馬遜也有一個水平可擴展ACID兼容數據庫,"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/aws.amazon.com\/rds\/aurora","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Amazon Aurora"}]},{"type":"text","text":",提供幾乎所有的SQL功能,但沒有水平寫入伸縮。除了超大規模雲提供商之外,"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.cockroachlabs.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"CockroachDB"}]},{"type":"text","text":"也是一個非常突出的NewSQL或分佈式SQL數據庫。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,數據存儲生態系統將保持現在的樣子,有很多選擇。沒有一種數據庫可以滿足所有的目的。在2021年,選擇正確的數據也將是一個非常具有挑戰性的任務,需要仔細考慮。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"許多流行的數據庫已經修改了它們的許可 ("},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"MongoDB、 Cassandra、 Redis、Kafka"},{"type":"text","text":"),因爲超級規模的雲提供商,尤其是亞馬遜,濫用了它們的創新,賺了錢卻沒有回報。這一趨勢在2021年將繼續,其它初創公司或創新型公司將使用更嚴格的許可來保護他們免受雲提供商的掠奪。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"10. 數據密集型計算:Spark將繼續領先"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"就在幾年前,"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/hadoop.apache.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Hadoop"}]},{"type":"text","text":"還是"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"數據密集型計算"},{"type":"text","text":"或"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"分佈式批處理任務"},{"type":"text","text":"的默認選擇。"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/spark.apache.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Apache Spark"}]},{"type":"text","text":" 目前是供應商中立的分佈式批處理任務平臺的首選,在大多數情況下幾乎取代了Hadoop。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這一趨勢將在2021年繼續,Spark將被用作數據密集型計算的首選平臺。Spark是一個基於JVM的系統,需要非常大的資源,你將得到一份巨大的雲賬單。但不幸的是,目前還沒有一個資源節約型的框架能匹配Spark的能力和成熟度。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所有主流的雲提供商都有它們自己的雲原生解決方案來進行數據密集型計算。我的個人建議是在2021年使用Spark而不是特定的雲解決方案,以避免供應商鎖定。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"11. 實時流處理:Flink將是明顯的選擇"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"近年來,隨着企業拋棄傳統的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Lambda_architecture","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Lambda架構"}]},{"type":"text","text":",轉而使用實時流處理框架,實時流處理正變得越來越流行。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外,這裏存在兩種類型的框架。一種是以"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/spark.apache.org\/docs\/latest\/streaming-programming-guide.html","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Spark Streaming"}]},{"type":"text","text":"爲核心的基於微批量的平臺。另一種是以"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/flink.apache.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Apache Flink"}]},{"type":"text","text":"爲核心的低延遲流處理平臺。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Apache Flink在需要實時流處理(欺詐檢測、異常檢測、基於規則的警報、實時數據即時分析)的場景中超越了Spark流處理。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所有超大規模雲提供商也提供了它們自己的解決方案。我建議在2021年選擇Flink,而不是Spark或者專有云解決方案,因爲它在實時流處理方面具有無與倫比的能力。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"12. 數據平臺:其他人將追隨Snowflake"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"現代數據架構相當複雜。它包含數據源、ETL管道、數據倉庫、數據湖、數據分析工具以及許多其它組件。下面是企業數據平臺(ABM AMRO的數據平臺)的一個示例:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/7b\/7b652be8499c30b1f2da39f53baf32f6.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/medium.com\/abn-amro-developer\/abn-amros-data-integration-architecture-f33506a211c3","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/medium.com\/abn-amro-developer\/abn-amros-data-integration-architecture-f33506a211c3"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.snowflake.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Snowflake"}]},{"type":"text","text":"通過提供一個集中的數據源、單平臺,以及在它上面構建許多不同的工作負載,從而徹底改變了現代數據架構。在經典架構中,數據需要在不同的平臺上轉移,但在Snowflake中只有一個數據的“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"信源"},{"type":"text","text":"”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這不是適用於所有情況的完美案例。但是對於大部分情況,這將普及並賦能數據平臺和數據倉庫。正如"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"甲骨文的CEO拉里·埃裏森(Larry Ellison)"},{"type":"text","text":"所說,它已經動搖了數據倉庫市場:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/cloudwars.co\/oracle\/oracles-larry-ellison-admits-snowflake-is-killing-amazon-redshift\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Oracle's Larry Ellison Admits Snowflake Is a Killer: 'It's Killing Amazon Redshift'"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,我預期更多的創新將爲企業案例帶來像Snowflake一樣的單數據平臺。這對於許多公司將是一個巨大的幫助並改變遊戲規則。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"13. 快速應用開發:低代碼\/無代碼將擴展"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"快速的數字化轉型正創造巨大的軟件工程師供需缺口。儘管越來越多的新工程師加入這個行業,但仍然不夠。近年來,"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Low-code_development_platform","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"低代碼\/無代碼"}]},{"type":"text","text":"倡議的勢頭正越來越"},{"type":"text","text":"強勁"},{"type":"text","text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"市場上有許多低代碼\/無代碼平臺,主要是在Web開發領域,例如"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bubble.io\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Bubble"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。它們的成功也爲"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"LCNC"},{"type":"text","text":"在其它領域的開發鋪平了道路:"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"無代碼應用程序開發、無代碼人工智能、無代碼機器學習"},{"type":"text","text":"。LCNC工具可以通過如下所述的好主意促進業務或人員的發展:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.techrepublic.com\/article\/low-code-platforms-will-save-your-business-heres-how\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Low-code platforms will save your business. Here's how."}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而且,正如我去年預測的一樣,公有云提供商正提供LCNC服務。微軟提供"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/azure.microsoft.com\/en-us\/products\/powerapps\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Power Apps"}]},{"type":"text","text":",谷歌提供"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.appsheet.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"AppSheet"}]},{"type":"text","text":",AWS提供"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.honeycode.aws\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Honeycode"}]},{"type":"text","text":"作爲一個LCNC平臺來快速構建應用程序。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,LCNC將成爲激烈競爭的領域之一,有許多創新、合併和收購。如果你是一個擁有偉大想法的個人或企業,請關注2021年的LCNC。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"14. 軟件架構:微服務、單體式、無服務器將共存"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"近年來,"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Microservices","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"微服務架構"}]},{"type":"text","text":"成爲大型企業應用程序開發的首選。然而,設計微服務應用程序比設計“一刀切”單體應用程序要複雜得多。微服務架構需要一組最佳實踐,正如我在下面這篇文章中所列出的:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/effective-microservices-10-best-practices-c6e4ba0c6ee2","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Effective Microservices: 10 Best Practices"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"像其它軟件架構一樣,微服務也有它擅長的用例和失敗的案例。它還需要一套設計模式,我總結如下:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/microservice-architecture-and-its-10-most-important-design-patterns-824952d7fa41","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Microservice Architecture and its 10 Most Important Design Patterns"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最近,由於微服務架構的複雜性和在某些用例中的失敗,人們對它產生了強烈的反感。"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kelseyhightower","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Kelsey Hightower"}]},{"type":"text","text":"在下面的推特中總結了對微服務的批評:"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/b0\/b02dc9b3a319fe1edc5a3c2f8d0940b5.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這與我們幾年前所看的趨勢形成鮮明對比,當時單體架構受到批評並被視爲過時的。實際上,單體架構也是一種很好的架構,它特別適合我在下面這篇文章中提到的用例:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/looking-beyond-the-hype-is-modular-monolithic-software-architecture-really-dead-e386191610f8","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Looking Beyond the Hype: Is Modular Monolithic Software Architecture Really Dead?"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一個近年來大肆宣傳的軟件架構是無服務器架構("},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/martinfowler.com\/articles\/serverless.html","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Serverless Architecture"}]},{"type":"text","text":")。亞馬遜開創了無服務器計算的先河,推出了開創性的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/aws.amazon.com\/lambda\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"AWS Lambda"}]},{"type":"text","text":"服務,開發人員只編寫代碼,服務提供商託管服務器。這個架構也有人炒作,有人批評。像單體架構和微服務架構一樣,無服務器架構也不是萬能的,應該用在它適合的地方(例如,事件驅動和突發負載)。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,所有的軟件架構(單體架構、微服務、無服務器)都將共存,因爲它們都有各自的用例和優缺點。我建議在大型企業開發中選擇微服務架構(傳統上使用SOA),在小型開發中使用單體架構,在事件驅動和突發負載中選擇無服務器架構。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"15. 編程(主流):Python和JavaScript將引領潮流"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"近些年,編程語言領域也經歷了重大變化。傳統的偏重的編程語言的市場份額正逐漸被更簡單且對開發人員更友好的編程語言所佔據。在2020年1月,我對需求中的語言進行了廣泛的分析,將"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.python.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Python"}]},{"type":"text","text":"和"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.javascript.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"JavaScript"}]},{"type":"text","text":"分別放在第一位和第二位:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/top-10-in-demand-programming-languages-to-learn-in-2020-4462eb7d8d3e","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Top 10 In-Demand programming languages to learn in 2020"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最後,最受歡迎的編程語言排名網站"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.tiobe.com\/tiobe-index\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TIOBE"}]},{"type":"text","text":"承認了這一變化,並將Python置於Java之上:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/developer-tech.com\/news\/2020\/nov\/06\/tiobe-index-python-ahead-java-first-time\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TIOBE Index: Python slithers ahead of Java for the first time"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"隨着軟件開發行業的蓬勃發展,以及大量新開發人員加入這個行業,更簡單、對開發人員更友好的編程語言將在2021年更受歡迎。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.python.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Python"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是數據科學中排名第一的編程語言,在除了底層編程之外的幾乎所有其它領域也都是排名第二或第三的編程語言。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.javascript.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"JavaScript"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是Web開發領域毫無爭議的頭號語言,在其它領域(包括後端開發)中也越來越流行。它也是初學者的絕佳語言。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/docs.oracle.com\/en\/java\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Java"}]},{"type":"text","text":"正慢慢喪失其作爲最流行的編程語言的受歡迎程度。然而,由於其傳奇般的向後兼容性和不斷更新(6個月的發佈週期,polyglot Virtual Machine "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.graalvm.org\/reference-manual\/polyglot-programming\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"GraalVM"}]},{"type":"text","text":"),它仍然是企業軟件開發的首選編程語言。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/isocpp.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"C++"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是另一個近年來發生了重大變化的主流編程語言。幾天前剛剛發佈了"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/C%2B%2B20#:~:text=C%2B%2B20%20is%20the,by%20ISO%20in%20December%202020.","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"C++20"}]},{"type":"text","text":",它將完全改變C++截至目前的編程方式。這是近年來最具破壞性的C++版本之一,將極大地影響其在2021年及以後的流行度。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,主流編程語言將保持它們的地位,儘管它們會感受到來自現代編程語言的壓力。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"16. 編程(現代):Rust終將到來"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最近幾年,編程領域的另一個有趣的趨勢是現代編程語言的興起。比較老的語言存在過去的包袱,不能快速變遷("},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Java"},{"type":"text","text":"),或者通過增加越來越多的功能而變得臃腫且令人望而卻步("},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"C++"},{"type":"text","text":")。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"現代的比較新的編程語言沒有過去的包袱,能夠滿足當今開發者的需求。它們大多非常關注開發人員的工效學,支持現代功能,例如類型推理、null安全性、表達力強、簡潔。其中許多還被設計來利用現代硬件和現代基礎設施("},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"雲、多核、GPU、TPU"},{"type":"text","text":")。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"以"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Rust、 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Overflow開發者調研,它是最受喜愛的編程語言:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/94\/94cc2ba281674bc2192d8754b72158d4.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}],"text":"圖片來源:"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/insights.stackoverflow.com\/survey\/2020","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Stack Overflow Developer Survey, 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10 In-Demand Web Development Frameworks in 2021"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/docs.microsoft.com\/en-us\/aspnet\/core\/introduction-to-aspnet-core?view=aspnetcore-5.0","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"微軟的ASP.NET Core"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是另一個引人注目的Web框架,與流行的JavaScript框架(React、Vue.js、Angular)無縫協作。在2021年,ASP.NET Core將成爲企業服務端開發的主要選手。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"許多初創公司和小型公司都希望有一個包括視圖層的端到端框架,以便快速開發應用程序。基於Python的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.djangoproject.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Django"}]},{"type":"text","text":"、 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/laravel.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"PHP Laravel"}]},{"type":"text","text":"和"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/rubyonrails.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Ruby on Rails"}]},{"type":"text","text":"在2021年將成爲他們的絕佳選項。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"19. App開發:原生App將繼續佔據主導地位"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"智能手機現在是我們日常生活的一部分。智能手機用戶已經達到35億,明年將達到38億:"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/7c\/7c04f355cf529f78c8e335ab9c6bcb6b.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}],"text":"圖片來源:"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/330695\/number-of-smartphone-users-worldwide\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Statista"}],"marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"因此,移動應用對於終端用戶越來越重要,尤其是對於年輕一代來說。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在移動應用開發領域,有4個主要趨勢:原生應用開發、跨平臺應用開發、混合應用開發和基於雲的應用開發。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原生應用開發"},{"type":"text","text":"提供了最高的靈活性,擁有最好的性能和用戶體驗。但由於企業需要保留兩個獨立的團隊,因此開發成本最高。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"跨平臺應用開發"},{"type":"text","text":"正變得越來越流行,因爲iOS和Android應用開發可以使用相同的代碼庫。儘管開發成本低,但是不夠靈活,性能也不如原生應用。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"近年來,"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"基於雲的應用"},{"type":"text","text":"變得越來越流行,其數據和主要業務邏輯保存在雲端。特定設備的瘦客戶端被開發來連接雲端並從中獲取數據。雖然對於數據密集的應用程序是一個不錯的選擇,但對於普通應用開發來說,它還不是主流。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"儘管跨平臺應用開發正迎頭趕上,"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原生應用開發"},{"type":"text","text":"仍然是企業普通應用開發的更好的選擇。在2021年,一般企業將偏愛原生應用開發,而初創企業和小公司將偏愛跨平臺應用開發。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"20. 跨平臺應用開發:React Native將佔據主導地位,但Flutter將迎頭趕上"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"跨平臺應用開發正變得越來越流行,因爲它的開發成本比較低。市場上有許多跨平臺應用開發平臺,但Flutter和React Native是其中的領導者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Facebook的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/reactnative.dev\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"React Native"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是基於最流行的基於JavaScript的Web開發框架——"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/reactjs.org\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"React"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。它的口號是“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"一次學習,隨處編寫"},{"type":"text","text":"。”Facebook正積極開發React Native,用"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"27億Facebook用戶"},{"type":"text","text":"測試其功能。如果一家企業已經用了React來進行Web開發和React Native來進行App開發,它們可以在Web和移動開發中共享組件和代碼庫。另外,React Native是基於JavaScript的,而JavaScript是最流行的編程語言之一。目前,React Native比Flutter流行得多,如下所示:"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/15\/1564e167e84f040d2cd7ccaac4a95a96.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}],"text":"圖片來源:"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/insights.stackoverflow.com\/survey\/2020","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Stack Overflow Developer Survey, 2020"}],"marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2021年,React將主導跨平臺應用開發,因爲React和React Native的性能會有一個重大更新。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"谷歌的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/flutter.dev\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Flutter"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是一個相對比較新的框架,但近年來非常流行。它提供了一個功能強大的UI工具箱,用來從單一代碼庫構建漂亮的原生編譯的移動、桌面和Web應用程序。然而,Flutter還不像React那樣是Web開發中的主流框架。Flutter使用了一種現代編程語言——"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/dart.dev\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Dart"}]},{"type":"text","text":",一種快速發展的效率非常高的編程語言。就性能而言,Flutter比React有優勢。它還提供了更好的開發者工效學,而且開發人員喜歡使用Flutter工作:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/9d\/9df5e2e909b8b9153acdd5a2a42fd010.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}],"text":"圖片來源:"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/insights.stackoverflow.com\/survey\/2020","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Stack Overflow Developer Survey, 2020"}],"marks":[{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"與Facebook全力支持React Native不同,谷歌在Web和App開發方面有很多框架(例如,用於Web開發的"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Angular"},{"type":"text","text":"),沒有把所有精力都放在Flutter和Dart上。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"綜上所述,我預測React Native將在2021年繼續領先Flutter,因爲Facebook正計劃對React生態系統(React Native的致命弱點)進行重大性能提升。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"21. API: REST面向業務應用"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"微服務架構和無服務器近些年正變得越來越流行。微服務或納米服務需要通信,通常,同步通信用得比事件驅動的異步通信多。即使傳統的單體應用是通過異步通信進行通信的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Representational_state_transfer","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"REST"}]},{"type":"text","text":"是2020年最主要的API技術。REST是一種基於Web技術的通信標準。它在行業中已經有相當一段時間了(20年)。REST和SOAP幾乎同時出現,但當SOAP幾乎被認爲是遺留技術時,REST將繼續統治。無論是大型企業還是小型初創公司,都在使用REST。在2021年,REST仍將佔據主導地位。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在API開發領域,也有一些優秀的候選者。最突出的是"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"谷歌的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/grpc.io\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"gRPC"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。與REST不同,"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"gRPC"},{"type":"text","text":"是一個類似SOAP的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Remote_procedure_call","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"RPC"}]},{"type":"text","text":"協議。谷歌吸取了舊RPC協議的教訓,創建了適合現代軟件開發需求的gRPC。gRPC使用高性能的消息格式"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/developers.google.com\/protocol-buffers","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Protocol Buffers"}]},{"type":"text","text":"(也是由谷歌開發),而不是JSON。因此,與REST相比,gRPC性能更高、可讀性更差。在機器對機器的通信中,這是比較好的選擇。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一種越來越流行的API技術,尤其是對於UI開發者,是"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Facebook的GraphQL"},{"type":"text","text":"。通常,UI需要對後端進行大量API調用來獲取所有它所需的數據。GraphQL允許聚合API來減少UI和後端之間的通信。GraphQL的一個主要缺點是,它不適合高安全性要求的開發。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這三者實際上都有各自的用例,可以相互補充,這種趨勢將在2021年繼續。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"結論"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這裏,我使用了當前的趨勢、數據和事實對2021年最重要的軟件開發趨勢進行了21個預測。整個軟件開發行業要大得多,我無法涵蓋所有重要的領域。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另外,我還簡要地討論了一些話題,例如數據存儲,它需要一篇單獨的文章。另一方面,我詳細寫了一些話題。另一個有趣的事實是,科技四巨頭:谷歌、Facebook、亞馬遜和微軟,是如何主導幾乎所有的軟件開發領域的。我希望這篇文章能讓你"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"360度"},{"type":"text","text":"地瞭解2021年的軟件開發趨勢。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"作者介紹"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":":"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Md Kamaruzzaman 軟件架構師 | 技術作家 | 全棧 | 雲 | 大數據"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文鏈接"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":":"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/21-predictions-about-the-software-development-trends-in-2021-600bfa048be","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"21 Predictions about the Software Development Trends in 2021"}]}]}]}
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