比特幣首次突破40000美元，10年漲千萬倍但依然極具風險

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"text","text":"雖然比特幣突破40000美元了，但還是可能成爲一個“投資災難”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2017年12月，比特幣價格首次突破19000美元，隨後又在一年內跌破到3200美元。但是長期持有比特幣的人終於笑到了最後，因爲比特幣的價格在本週四突破了40000美元，是三年前價格的兩倍。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雖然現在價格回落至38,000美元左右，但是比特幣在過去的五天內價格飆升了近25％，連帶着讓加密貨幣的價格突破了多個里程碑水平。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"比特幣價格每創一次新高，都會讓現在不再持有的投資者心痛一次。外媒報道，英國一名IT工程師不小心將藏有 7500 枚比特幣私鑰的硬盤當垃圾扔掉。按照 4 萬美元現價估算約"},{"type":"text","text":"價值"},{"type":"text","text":" 3.8 億美元，他表示後悔莫及。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"同時這個上漲的價格也不斷創造着新的財富神話。有一位程序員今天在reddit上發帖表示他找到了多年前通過觀看視頻和完成在線隨機任務免費獲取的127枚比特幣。在比特幣價格上漲之後，他從放在車庫中的舊戴爾電腦中找出了這個名爲“ Keys”的txt文件，並於1月3日以34000美元的價格賣出了全部127個比特幣。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/36\/d1\/367fd172e7ae276b68622f2a1a4a29d1.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"比特幣由據稱爲日裔美國人的中本聰在2008年11月1日提出。2009年1月，在赫爾辛基的一臺小型服務器上，中本聰創建了一份簡陋的開源代碼，比特幣的首個區塊在這一天誕生。早期參與者主要是一些極客。2010年5月21日，一個美國的程序員用10000枚比特幣換取了2個披薩，當時這兩個披薩的市場價是30美元，摺合下來1枚BTC的價格是0.003美元，這就是BTC第一次在現實世界中的定價。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/93\/09\/9309f4960808eccc7627f54620869709.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"面對不斷上漲的價格和看似平穩的走勢曲線，比特幣是否值得繼續投資？今天這篇文章，我們來談談比特幣醜陋的一面。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"實際情況與願景背道而馳"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"中本聰創造比特幣的最初，就設定了總數爲2100萬枚，只能通過網上“挖礦”得到，不依靠特定貨幣機構發行，並使用區塊鏈技術來確保該數字貨幣流通各個環節的安全性。比特幣提出的這些新的理念與技術，證明了“區塊鏈”在一定程度上具備可行性。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但最終，比特幣未能兌現自己誕生時做出的承諾，甚至徹底背離了這些承諾。從誕生那一刻起，人們就一直在窺探並分析區塊鏈。區塊鏈全面開放，因此對它的窺探與分析也永遠不會停止。隨着分析能力的提升，任何匿名保護都終將淪爲笑話。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"區塊鏈空間的稀缺性，讓人們以爲自己終於找到了擺脫傳統銀行的救命稻草。從債務經紀（Lightning Network）到部分準備金銀行業務，再到Mt. Gox乃至如今的“負責任”商人的風險投資，無數參與者都在有意或無意當中忽視了這樣一個事實——他們對比特幣的理解，正是比特幣一直希望擺脫甚至消除的頑疾。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在他們的推動下，比特幣已經與其他貨幣一樣成爲一套基於債務的體系。掌握"},{"type":"text","text":"密"},{"type":"text","text":"鑰的交易所沒有任何義務將所有儲蓄資產作爲準備金封存起來；相反，只要資產尚未用盡、或者是還沒被用戶抓住把柄，我們就無法證明其是否掌握着與聲明相符的資產。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另外，比特幣對微交易沒有任何促進作用。如果將比特幣網絡部署在一所大學之內，那麼相對有限的交易總量不會給網絡本身帶來太大的負擔，因此能夠保證單項交易的執行成本不致超過交易額本身。但在這種情況下，礦工池的規模也將非常有限，意味着採礦活動將變得振盪極大、毫無穩定性可言，無法保證區塊鏈不受篡改活動的影響。事實上，比特幣在發展早期曾經出現過類似的狀況，因此中本聰才決定瘋狂採礦，藉此平抑區塊鏈的產出波動。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而比特幣採礦又助長了腐敗現象（這是因爲採礦需要電力，而不少政府官員開始幫助比特幣礦工從廣大納稅人手中偷電），浪費了巨大的能源，孕育起殭屍網絡，甚至在某些國家出現了以中央政府爲主導的統一採礦活動。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"比特幣的幾股主要參與力量口口聲聲強調，不斷引入更多礦工是爲了抵禦51%攻擊；但實際上，他們只是害怕沒有足夠的礦工進來維持這場規模龐大、資源投入甚巨的全民狂歡。專用採礦硬件的出現已經給工作證明帶來重創，這類硬件專門用於採礦，而對常規計算幾乎毫無用處。以此爲基礎，採礦能力不再分佈在全世界，而開始集中在少數“礦業巨頭”手中。他們可以尋找世界範圍內成本最低的電力，把自己的採礦設施搬過去，最終令一切散戶礦工變得無利可圖。沒錯，比特幣採礦其實已經名存實亡，ASIC開始成爲唯一的採礦選項。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"站在央行數字貨幣的對立面"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"全球金融體系正在發生重大變化，在不久的未來，我們即將迎來央行數字貨幣。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"央行數字貨幣與比特幣截然不同。理論上，比特幣在全球分散的系統上運行，只要互聯網能夠運行，任何政府或個人都無法控制它。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而央行數字貨幣代表着一套“閉環”系統，這一點與目前的數字貨幣及其貨幣等價物類似，這樣的閉環貨幣系統能夠爲持有者提供強有力的控制權。至於央行數字貨幣的實際使用方法，倒是沒什麼太多可討論的，消費者可以直接使用，享受由此提供的激勵措施，例如獲得更高的儲蓄收益或者獲取央行數字貨幣支付折扣等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"央行數字貨幣將是一種可編程貨幣，憑藉着內置交易規則這種強大能力，其將表現出前所未有的靈活性。屆時貨幣流通速度（即貨幣的易手頻率）將沒有任何影響。例如，當央行決定存錢時，資金就會停止易手；而如果央行希望老百姓花錢，則可以把錢引渡到某些特定經濟領域當中以推動市場增長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"現在，根據全球經濟的長期發展態勢，人們已經意識到加密貨幣中蘊藏的巨大能量或者說破壞力。當下，全球80%的央行都在着手規劃自己的數字貨幣。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"加密貨幣帶來了一種脫離主流經濟體系的選項。事實上，比特幣的根本作用就是毀滅國家的貨幣主權："},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"沒有這個前提，比特幣根本不可能取得如此輝煌的成功"},{"type":"text","text":"。任何一個希望擺脫實體現金、擺脫銀行負利率、擺脫央行對自己支出活動及支付方式的控制的用戶，都只有一個合乎邏輯的選擇——以比特幣爲代表的加密貨幣。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"text","text":"正是在這個層面上，比特幣與各國國家力量之間即將爆發激烈的衝突。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"加密貨幣的優勢並不在於匿名性。關於加密貨幣的種種法規，已經要求用戶至少得提供自己的身份信息與所從事的工作。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這一切讓我們想起了1934年美國政府從美國公民手中強制徵收黃金的掌故。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"text","text":"貨幣系統的變化，可能給加密貨幣支持者們帶來巨大沖擊。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不少美國人都不瞭解，1934年到1974年之間美國曾頒佈法令，將私人持有黃金視爲非法行爲。美國自1929年起開始進入大蕭條時期，政府及銀行需要增強其財務穩健性，黃金國有化也被納入法律條款。第6102號行政令於1933年4月5日根據《羅斯福法案》簽署發佈（詳見下圖），其中提到美國民衆必須接受每盎司20.67美元的官方收購價，並依法上繳全部金條、金券以及金幣。美國民衆能夠合法持有的黃金珠寶總值不得超過100美元。任何試圖逃避法規私藏大量黃金的人士，都將面臨起訴風險。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/24\/31\/2436fe67a0a13b46cf2710392c18be31.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"他們希望制度管理下的每一個人分攤壓力，共同抵禦經濟困難期。所以只要美國經濟無法短期出現大幅改善，如果美聯儲仍然找不到行之有效的通脹實現手段，那麼我們就一定會朝着1934年的情況邁進。黃金和比特幣具有某種共性，它們都沒有競爭對手所無法擺脫的風險。無論是持有黃金還是持有加密貨幣，我們都能有效規避金融蕭條的影響。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當時，黃金價格爲每盎司20.67美元，所以普通人也能囤積一批“硬貨”。但如今，每盎司黃金的價格已經接近2000美元；相比之下，如今的比特幣獲取難度要比1934年的黃金還更低些。隨便找個線上交易所，大家都能買上幾塊錢的比特幣，而且這筆小小的資產完全不會受到政府經濟政策的影響。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"央行數字貨幣可以明確設定用戶可以用它購買哪些產品及服務。相信"},{"type":"text","text":"有些朋友試"},{"type":"text","text":"過用信用卡購買加密貨幣吧？這種購買會被拒絕，一切都得按規矩來，就這麼簡單。大家可以繼續開開心心使用加密貨幣，但也許忽然有一天，各國政府會發現自己的央行數字貨幣競爭不過其他加密貨幣，於是後者可能馬上會變成非法的東西。可以肯定，各國央行的政府部門的專家肯定比普通人要聰明，所以我們能想到的他們肯定早就想到，而且經過了充分的論證。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"你如何看待比特幣，歡迎留言評論！"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"延伸閱讀："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/medium.com\/datadriveninvestor\/why-bitcoin-could-be-banned-or-criminalized-in-the-coming-years-278b46b9fe86","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/medium.com\/datadriveninvestor\/why-bitcoin-could-be-banned-or-criminalized-in-the-coming-years-278b46b9fe86"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.metzdowd.com\/pipermail\/cryptography\/2020-December\/036510.html","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/www.metzdowd.com\/pipermail\/cryptography\/2020-December\/036510.html"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}