DeepMind的年度報告：虧損42億再創新高，收益仰賴谷歌母公司

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2018年的5.68億英鎊增長到2019年的7.17億英鎊。公司的整體虧損從2018年的4.7億英鎊增加到2019年的4.77億英鎊（約合42億人民幣）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"乍看之下，這不是壞消息。"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2019\/08\/12\/deepmind-losses-costs-of-ai\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"與前幾年相比"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"，DeepMind的收入增長正在加速，同時它的虧損卻保持穩定。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/f1\/f18c6bf293e5ccd5f4544bf71b5dca12.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"DeepMind從2016年到2019年的收入和虧損"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"但是該報告包含了一些更重要的事實。該文檔提到“研發報酬來自於集團其他事業部”。這意味着DeepMind的主要客戶是它的所有者。 Alphabet正在向DeepMind支付費用，以將其AI研究和人才應用於谷歌的服務和基礎架構。過去，谷歌使用DeepMind的服務來完成諸如管理其數據中心的電網以及改善其語音助手的人工智能之類的任務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"這也意味着DeepMind的AI尚無市場，如果有，也只能通過谷歌獲得。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"該文檔還提到，成本的增長“主要與技術基礎設施，員工成本和其他相關費用的增長有關。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"這是很重要的一點。 DeepMind的“技術基礎架構”主要運行在谷歌的大型雲計算服務及其特殊的AI處理器Tensor Processing Unit（TPU）上。 DeepMind的主要研究領域是"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2019\/05\/28\/what-is-reinforcement-learning\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"深度強化學習"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"，這需要訪問非常昂貴的計算資源。該公司在2019年的一些項目中包括了兩套AI系統的研究工作，其中一個系統可以玩《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2019\/11\/04\/deepmind-ai-starcraft-2-reinforcement-learning\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"星際爭霸2"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"》，另一個可以玩《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2019\/06\/03\/deepmind-ai-quake-iii-arena-ctf\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雷神之錘3"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"》，這兩個項目的訓練費用均爲數百萬美元。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"DeepMind的一位發言人對媒體說，文檔中提到的費用還包括在"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/deepmind.com\/blog\/article\/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"AlphaFold"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"項目上的工作，AlphaFold是該公司另一個非常昂貴的著名的蛋白質摺疊AI項目。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/2c\/2ce1ae60526cc5912ac2c8010f4272f1.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"關於谷歌向DeepMind收取多少訪問其雲AI服務的費用，目前沒有公開細節，但谷歌很可能以折扣價出租其TPU。這意味着，如果沒有谷歌的支持，該公司的支出將會高得多。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"員工成本是另一個重要的問題。儘管在過去幾年中參與學習機器學習課程的人數有所增加，但能夠參與DeepMind所從事的尖端AI研究的科學家卻非常稀少。從某些方面來看，頂尖的AI人才的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/04\/19\/technology\/artificial-intelligence-salaries-openai.html","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"薪水爲七位數"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"對"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2019\/02\/15\/what-is-deep-learning-neural-networks\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"深度學習"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"及其在商業環境中的適用性的興趣與日俱增，這在科技公司之間引起了爭奪頂尖AI人才的競賽。業內大多數頂尖的AI科學家和先驅在谷歌、Facebook、亞馬遜和微軟等大型公司從事全職或半職工作。搶奪頂尖AI人才的激烈競爭產生了兩種後果。首先，就像其他任何供不應求的領域一樣，這導致了AI科學家的薪水急劇上升。其次，它導致許多AI科學家從無法負擔鉅額薪水的學術研究機構轉向了有支付能力的富裕科技公司。爲了繼續進行科學研究，一些科學家繼續留在學術界，但是他們的數量太少了，相距甚遠。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"如果沒有像谷歌這樣的大型科技公司的支持，DeepMind這樣的研究實驗室就無法爲他們的項目僱用新的研究人員。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"因此，儘管DeepMind表現出緩慢扭轉虧損局面的跡象，但其增長使其更加依賴谷歌的財務資源和大型雲基礎架構。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":1},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"谷歌仍然對DeepMind感到滿意"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/36\/36065fc7294f49210ca18ae98bfd5e5e.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"DeepMind開發了一種稱爲AlphaStar的AI系統，可以在實時策略遊戲《星際爭霸2》中擊敗最佳玩家"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"根據DeepMind的年度報告，Alphabet的投資分支之一谷歌 Ireland無限控股公司，“免除了償還公司間貸款和所有累計利息，總計11億英鎊”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"DeepMind還獲得了谷歌的書面保證，稱其將“在至少十二個月的時間裏”向該AI公司“繼續提供充足的財務支持”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"目前，谷歌似乎對DeepMind取得的進展感到滿意，這也反映在谷歌和Alphabet高管的講話中。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在7月的針對投資者和分析師的季度財報電話會議上，Alphabet首席執行官Sundar Pichai說：“我對我們研發團隊在AI上的發展節奏感到非常滿意。對於我來說重要的是，我們是一家最先進的公司，並且我們處於領先地位。對於我來說，我對我們在谷歌和DeepMind的工程和研發團隊的工作節奏感到興奮。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"但是企業界和科學研究的步伐是不同的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"科學研究以數十年爲時間單位來度量。當今在商業應用中使用的許多AI技術從1970年代和1980年代就在開發中了。同樣，今天在AI會議上展示的許多前沿研究和技術可能在未來幾年內都不會進入大衆市場。根據最樂觀的估計，DeepMind的最終目標——開發"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2020\/05\/13\/what-is-artificial-general-intelligence-agi\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"通用人工智能"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"（AGI）——至少需要數十年的時間。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"另一方面，股東和投資者們的耐心以數月和數年爲單位度量。無法在數年內實現盈利，或至少顯示出增長跡象希望的公司，會給投資者帶來困擾。DeepMind目前哪個都沒有，它沒有可衡量的增長，因爲它唯一的客戶只有谷歌本身。而且目前尚不清楚它的一些技術何時（如果有的話）可以商業化。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/e2\/e29cc8331a80b64288ba6fc0537f707e.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"谷歌首席執行官Sundar Pichai對DeepMind的AI研發進度感到滿意。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"這就是DeepMind的困境所在。從本質上講，它是一個研究實驗室，希望突破科學發展的極限，並確保AI的進步對人類有益。但是，其所有者的目標是開發能夠解決特定問題並實現盈利的產品。這兩個目標是截然相反的，將DeepMind拉向兩個不同的方向：保持其科研性質或轉變爲一家制造產品的AI公司。過去，該公司在尋求科學研究和產品開發的平衡方面"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2019\/08\/26\/deepmind-mustafa-suleyman-commercial-ai\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"已經遇到了麻煩"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"然而，DeepMind並不孤單。 DeepMind的隱性競爭對手OpenAI面臨着"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2020\/08\/17\/openai-gpt-3-commercial-ai\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"類似的身份危機"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"，從AI研究實驗室轉變爲由微軟支持的營利性公司，後者"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2020\/09\/21\/gpt-3-economy-business-model\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"租用了其深度學習模型"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"因此，儘管DeepMind還無需爲自己無利可圖的研究工作而擔憂，但隨着它受其所有者的影響越來越深，它應該深思自己的未來和AI科學研究的未來。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文鏈接："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2020\/12\/21\/deepminds-annual-report-why-its-hard-to-run-a-commercial-ai-lab\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/bdtechtalks.com\/2020\/12\/21\/deepminds-annual-report-why-its-hard-to-run-a-commercial-ai-lab\/"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]}]}