AMD CEO演講：芯片短缺、關稅、GPU與更多核心

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"我們有幸與AMD公司CEO Lisa Su交流，探討該公司的未來計劃以及如何應對2021年即將到來的新挑戰，本文中的滿滿乾貨相信不會令大家失望。例如，Su表示芯片供貨短缺問題將持續到今年下半年，價格上漲是受到關稅的影響，該公司在GPU業務方面有所進展，關於收購賽靈思的更多詳情，以及AMD進一步增加計算核心的計劃等等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD公司在整個2020年的表現可以用“無與倫比”四個字來形容：他們推出了採用Zen 3架構的Ryzen 5000臺式機CPU系列新產品，繼當初的Athlon 64之後重新從英特爾手中奪回了性能王者的桂冠；此外，該公司的Radeon 6000 GPU也使其在六年之後再次與英偉達的遊戲GPU產品站在相同的競技舞臺之上。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD公司在筆記本電腦市場上同樣取得長足進步，其Ryzen 4000便攜式處理器推動該公司在筆記本電腦市場份額方面迎來歷史最高點。我們預計，隨着AMD方面Ryzen 5000便攜式處理器的推出，這一勢頭還將進一步加速。當然，AMD的數據中心業務同樣蓬勃發展，不斷蠶食着英特爾的市場份額；最近剛剛上市的新一代微軟Xbox Series X\/S以及索尼PS5也將在2021年大量使用AMD提供的處理核心。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"但面對2021年，AMD仍需要克服一系列挑戰，甚至包括不少前所未有的新難題。下面，我們來看Lisa Su如何引領AMD解決這些問題，並積極把握住2021年的種種新機遇。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"芯片短缺問題亟待改善"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"2020年，面對史無前例的新冠疫情大爆發，人們紛紛轉發居家辦公，進而將PC市場的增長速度拉昇到過去十年來的最高點。而儘管PC行業的市場需求達到歷史新高，但中美貿易戰與疫情本身的衝擊攪亂了全球供應鏈，導致製造端難以保持正常運行。與其他企業一樣，AMD也開始遭遇產品供應短缺問題，導致客戶在過去幾個月中始終無法順利購買其CPU與GPU產品。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Lisa Su強調，“我們目前正在加強交貨能力。遊戲顯卡與CPU的交易量開始持續增長，我們預計這種情況將持續到2021年，至少在今年上半年難以快速緩解。我們將繼續向OEM合作伙伴及其他普通合作伙伴提供更多產品，藉此增加整體供應量。我們非常理解消費者的實際需求，也在努力滿足這一波市場需求。”Su還澄清道，該公司不會將OEM客戶置於PC製造商之上。相反，他們希望通過加快供貨速度平衡供需關係。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"她還提到，“這裏我要再次澄清，特別是對關心並喜愛AMD產品的朋友們強調：我們完全理解目前的市場需求，我們知道大家希望買到更多Ryzen 5000與Radeon 6000顯卡。我向大家保證，我們已經在整個供貨渠道中做出努力，但最終效果還要過一段時間才能顯現。未來的供貨量一定會有所增加，今年第一季度乃至整個上半年雖然很難全面緩解，但我們抱有充分的信心，也希望將更多產品交付到用戶手中。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD與英偉達在此次供貨短缺當中受到的衝擊似乎最大，部分原因在於雙方各自推出了極爲強大的全新芯片，由此刺激的需求高峯吞沒了他們的供貨能力。人們也因此開始質疑，這兩家向來以無晶圓製造能力著稱的芯片廠商是否在定位上存在問題。Su評論稱，“我想解釋的是，我們對於自身製造策略以及製造合作伙伴的表現非常滿足。我認爲這樣的定位是我們的一大核心競爭優勢。目前的供應鏈、特別是消費級PC產品供應緊張問題，實際上是整體需求環境變化帶來的結果。從製造的角度來看，可能並不存在什麼問題，一切的根源在於全球市場對於半導體產能的需求變了。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"過去幾個月來，關於ABF基板短缺的報道多次出現。ABF基板是芯片製造中的一大核心商品，幾乎影響到所有PC芯片。這種短缺已經影響到整個行業，甚至因芯片供應不足導致多家汽車製造商的製造工廠陷入停工。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Su指出，“大家或多或少都聽到目前ABF基板供應短缺的消息，實際情況確實是這樣。我認爲，這同樣是由於目前市場需求超出了全球整體產能所引發的結果。目前各方都在努力提升產能水平，AMD也着手進行了投資，但產能建設絕不可能一蹴而就。我認爲整個行業都做出了積極的反應，着力提升製造設施容量。預計這一切將在2021年繼續保持下去。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"當然，短缺問題也有可能影響到AMD今年推出其他產品的計劃，包括微軟Xbox Series X\/S以及索尼PS5。很明顯，新一代遊戲主機的上市帶來前所未有的需求，同樣加劇了全球芯片供應的短缺狀況。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Su表示，“我們對新一代遊戲主機感到非常期待。從索尼和微軟那邊，大家應該已經瞭解到新產品的預訂規模與熱烈的市場反響。但從我們的角度出發，大家肯定能體會到新硬件對於產能的需求。坦白講，這兩款遊戲主機、再加上任天堂陣營，已經要佔用數百萬個計算單元。光是這些，就已經令芯片產業不堪重負了。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“至於經驗教訓，我們意識到市場需求比我們的預期要高得多，因此我們開始努力提高產能水平。但我們對目前的形勢、特別是與索尼及微軟的合作關係感到非常滿意……這代表着更長遠的運營週期，充分展示了我們半導體行業能夠將多少前沿技術成果集成到遊戲主機當中。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"中美貿易戰與關稅變動"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"芯片行業處於嚴重的供應短缺當中，而中美貿易戰期間所公佈的幾項關鍵關稅即將在今年年初到期。在此之前，已經有多家第三方顯卡製造商（AIB）宣佈漲價，但目前出現價格調整的主要是英偉達顯卡，對AMD陣營幾乎沒有什麼影響。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Su坦言關稅問題確實影響很大，她表示“隨着新一年的到來，關稅政策也將有所變動。我們投入了大量時間和精力，確保自身擁有高度靈活的供應鏈。我也一直將供應體系視爲關乎AMD公司命運的重大問題。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"在談到在關稅之外、單純因供需失衡造成的價格上漲問題時，Su解釋道："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“從更廣泛的意義上，我一直在努力以更公平的角度讓GPU的售價與建議價格保持一致。例如，我們在剛開始發佈GPU時，就會推出自己的公版Radeon Graphics MBA，而後再逐步轉向第三方顯卡製造商。但在此期間，我們的MBA儲備仍然存在，希望以這樣的庫存儲備保證始終在amd.com網站上按建議售價提供產品，同時鼓勵各合作伙伴維持住既定價格。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“當然，新冠疫情確實導致物流以及部分半成品的供應價格有所上漲，這確實會給價格帶來一些波動。希望今年下半年整體經濟環境能變得更正常一些，推動市場走向更爲合理的狀態。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"GPU開發進度"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD公司在GPU開發方面取得了巨大進步。不過最新發布的Cezanne Ryzen 5000便攜式處理器使用的仍然是該公司的上代Vega圖形單元，而非最新方案。這不禁令人們猜測AMD內部存在設計資源不足的問題。Su澄清道，這一決定更多是爲了保證產品能夠在正確的時機以正確的狀態發佈。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"她表示，“以Cezanne爲例，當我們規劃產品發佈時機與發展路線圖時，最重要的前提就是必須在2021年初開始生產並交付。考慮整個OEM週期，我們會在2021年上半年啓動新的生產平臺，確保爲搭載新架構的產品提供充裕的空間。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“換句話說，我們有沒有必要採用最新一代圖形單元？這是個選擇的問題。限制我們的並不是設計能力，而是應該以怎樣的時機推出怎樣的產品。有些人可能希望我們繼續提供Renoir這款已經非常優秀的產品，但我們認爲全尺寸的Zen 3市場需求更旺，所以會優先考慮推出Ryzen 5000系列。這就是選擇。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"雖然Raja Koduri這位重量級領導者選擇離去，但AMD公司仍然堅守着自己的競爭定位並不斷奮力向前。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“首先強調一點，我爲AMD公司的CPU工程團隊感到自豪。Mark Papermaster、Mike Clark及其團隊遵循野心勃勃的開發路線圖並出色完成了工作。正因爲這樣，我們才掌握着極爲出色的架構，並對Zen 3產品的表現感到興奮不已。未來，我們的關注重點將集中在Zen 4乃至Zen 5身上，必須保證它們也具有同樣的市場競爭力。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“在GPU方面，我對David Wang及其團隊取得的成果同樣非常滿意。我們建立起長期發展路線圖，包括制定五年計劃以確定如何選擇正確的方案組合。有時候，我們得冒點險才能在創新層面達成目標。但同時，我們也要求自己推出的產品具備良好的可預測性。這事說起來簡單、做起來卻非常困難。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“我們在CPU與GPU方面都擁有強大的團隊，而且我們的野心遠不止於此。很多朋友都關心AMD在GPU架構方面的進展。可以說，我對目前RDNA2在每瓦性能及整體性能方面取得的進展非常滿意 ，也一直在關注RDNA3以及其它產品，希望藉此保證我們能夠繼續在架構性能層面佔據領先地位。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"2021年的目標與賽靈思"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Su解釋道，AMD公司在2021年設定了三大核心目標：提升客戶的整體份額（特別是以企業及商業客戶爲主體的服務器市場）、建立起穩定的處理器供應鏈，並完成總值350億美元的賽靈思收購案。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD對賽靈思的收購無疑是其擴大自身業務範圍及市場份額的重要一步。但也有不少人認爲，這筆數額巨大的收購會干擾AMD的正常發展，特別是妨礙其產品開發計劃的按時執行。Su解釋道，該公司在保障開發進度方面已經擁有堅定的執行計劃："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“我們將繼續專注於貫徹開發目標。希望大家能理解，這永遠是我們的「頭號任務」。我們擁有一支才華橫溢的管理團隊，大家希望推動AMD在市場上佔據更顯著的領先地位。因此收購賽靈思無疑是個正確的決定。我完全有核心在保持AMD原有業務發展進程的同時，順利接管賽靈思。現任賽靈思CEO Peng也將加入我們，確保收購案能夠以無縫方式完成過渡。我們必須不斷擴大自身規模，我們也有能力保證一切順利推進。請大家對我們保持信心，我個人對此也始終深信不疑。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"更多核心"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"支持AMD公司在CPU市場上掀起顛覆浪潮的一大基本思路，就是不斷完善現有技術儲備。作爲其中的直接體現，AMD公司不斷增加自家處理器的核心數量，迫使英特爾亦步亦趨才能保持市場競爭力。不過，隨着該公司最新一代Zen 3處理器的出現，增加核心的行動開始有所減緩——Zen 3的處理核心與上代產品完全相同。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"這就引發了新的疑問：考慮到現有系統的供電設計與散熱能力，添加更多核心是否仍具有可行性？或者說，目前的軟件負載是否有能力使用更多計算核心？Su強調，AMD公司未來將進一步增加核心數量："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“如果大家關注我們在Zen 2與Zen 3之間、在第二代與第三代EPYC、以及在Ryzen 4000與5000之間做出的提升，就會意識到我們一直努力提高單線程性能，同時改進延遲乃至系統的整體性能。只有這樣，我們才能通過同樣的處理技術實現更高的代際間性能提升。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“因此，在所有7納米制程產品中，我們都能在不同指標上實現20%以上的性能增強。未來，我們還將進一步增加核心數量。處理器的核心上限甚至有可能突破64核大關，這一切都將隨着我們對系統的擴展而逐步實現。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"原文鏈接："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/news\/lisa-su-ces-2021-interview","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/news\/lisa-su-ces-2021-interview"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]}]}]}