比特幣跌破3萬美元,反應多度了?

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今日早間,比特幣在衆多交易平臺報價都跌到了 30000 美元以下。截止本文發出,比特幣在 huobi 報 30612.6 美元,24 小時跌幅 2.4%。數據顯示,1 小時內 ,加密貨幣市場全網合約爆倉 1.15 億美元,24 小時爆倉 7.46 億美元,共 47027 人爆倉。其中比特幣合約在過去 1 小時爆倉 6779 萬美元,24 小時爆倉 5.09 億美元。"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/wechat\/images\/1c\/1c348e1070d2c6321dffbc3701f21add.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"監管政策過度解讀?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當地時間 21 日,美國證券交易委員會對一系列未註冊的公司進行了標記,這些公司使用虛假公司信息欺騙了許多國際投資者。在被點名的 28 家可疑投資公司中,有 8 家是針對潛在加密貨幣投資者的公司,包括 trading - investment、Passive Trade Plan、RetireWell Investors、Reclaws International Inc. 和 SmartCoins24,這些公司都在其網站上提供加密貨幣和區塊鏈服務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而此前,當地時間 19 日,美國新任財政部長提名人、前美聯儲主席珍妮特·耶倫在聽證會中表示,加密貨幣有機會被非法融資濫用,政府將“需要審查我們可以限制它們使用的方式,並確保不會通過這些渠道進行洗錢活動”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/wechat\/images\/fd\/fde339cccd2c7f2455f86f649a2281b2.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"上述是耶倫迴應民主黨參議員瑪姬·哈桑(Maggie Hassan)有關使用某些加密貨幣助長恐怖主義問題時的回答。該評論暗示了即將上任的拜登政府可能對加密貨幣懷有敵意並加強監管。市場聞聲下跌,比特幣下跌 7.59%,以太坊下跌 9.74%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire 在推特上表示,耶倫的證詞更符合自 2013 年以來美國財政部對加密貨幣的政策。市場過度反應,觸發了牛市拋售。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當地時間週四,耶倫在發佈的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.finance.senate.gov\/imo\/media\/doc\/Dr%20Janet%20Yellen%20Senate%20Finance%20Committee%20QFRs%2001%2021%202021.pdf","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"書面證詞"}]},{"type":"text","text":"中,提出了更爲審慎的建議,認爲加密貨幣和數字資產可能“提高金融體系的效率”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"耶倫認爲,“重要的是我們要考慮加密貨幣和其他數字資產的好處,以及它們可能提高金融體系效率的潛力。同時,我們清楚它們可能被用於助長恐怖主義、洗錢和威脅美國國家安全利益以及美國和國際金融體系完整性的惡性活動。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“我認爲,我們必須仔細研究如何鼓勵將其用於合法活動,同時減少將其用於惡性和非法活動。如果得到確認,我打算與聯邦儲備委員會以及其他聯邦銀行和證券監管機構緊密合作,以期爲這些及其他金融科技創新實施有效的監管框架。”耶倫寫道。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另外,歐洲近期也釋放了加強加密貨幣監管的預期。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今年 1 月 11 日,英國金融監管機構金融行爲監管局(Financial Conduct Authority)警告投資者,投資於比特幣和其他加密貨幣資產存在風險,參與其中的人士應注意,他們可能會損失所有投資。1 月 13 日,歐洲中央銀行(ECB)總裁克里斯汀·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)在路透社會議上發表講話時強調,對於比特幣的“高度投機”有必要進行監管。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"部分機構獲利退出?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"加密貨幣基金提供商 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/coinshares.com\/research\/digital-asset-fund-flows","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"CoinShares"}]},{"type":"text","text":" 的最新週報顯示,在比特幣最近的盤整期間,一些機構投資者正在獲利退出。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"CoinShares 指出,加密產品的資金流入在聖誕節後的三週內下降了 97%,目前已經回到了聖誕節前的水平。機構產品目前佔比特幣總交易量的 6%,低於本月初的 14%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"上週,機構加密產品流出 8500 萬美元。報告稱,這些數據表明“在 BTC 的價格強勁升值後,一些投資者繼續獲利退出。”該報告指出,美元貿易加權指數不斷上升,表明美元指數“通常與比特幣價格呈負相關”,這可以解釋爲什麼一些投資者在當前水平上獲利退出。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外,以太坊衍生的投資產品有少量資金流出,300 萬美元流出市場。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不過,CoinShares 表示,儘管有機構獲利退出,但機構資金流入依然強勁,本週有 3.59 億美元流入加密投資產品。機構似乎仍然一心專注於比特幣,但流入比特幣產品的資金僅佔本週總資金流入的 1%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"摩根大通分析師認爲,比特幣牛市表明,比特幣可以與週期性資產相提並論,而不是作爲對沖市場壓力的一種工具。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"摩根大通策略師 John Normand 和 Federico Manicardi 表示,任何將比特幣作爲投資組合多元化工具進行投資的人都將自己置於風險之中。在彭博社週四獲得的一份報告中,這些策略師稱比特幣是“在市場嚴重緊張時期最不可靠的對沖工具”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當然,市場也不乏積極樂觀的聲音。債券評級和投資指數公司標準普爾(Standard&Poor’s)在一份報告中表示,過去 24 小時,比特幣延續了昨日的下跌趨勢,跌幅一度接近 10%。也許再過一段時間回頭看,這個回調根本不值一提。畢竟摩根大通預測比特幣將達到 14.6 萬美元,花旗銀行的預測標的是 31.8 萬美元,而 Guggenheim 的預測是 40 萬美元。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"注意:本文不構成任何投資建議,加密貨幣投資風險高,投資者需謹慎。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":5}}]}
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