被接連封殺後,出海的“TikTok們”還在堅持什麼?

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“中國的互聯網應用基本都是中國本土,掙中國人自己的錢,沒有去掙全球的錢。”在特朗普試圖封殺TikTok之後,華爲消費者業務總裁餘承東曾在2020年8月7日的一場行業峯會上發表看法,他表示TikTok是中國少數具有全球化決心的互聯網公司,絕大部份的互聯網公司都只是躺在中國的安樂窩裏。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“中國有14億人口,但是全球有70億人口,我們還沒有掙14億人口之外的那幾十億人口的錢、爲他們提供服務,所以我們的差距還非常大。”但有觀點認爲餘承東此番話很“扎心”——因爲出海榜樣TikTok遭遇"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/IvqlWpyTcArUoyl8DDmK","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"賣身"}]},{"type":"text","text":"危機,華爲亦身陷"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/VPJFTyuXxkOYC7004QX5","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"險境"}]},{"type":"text","text":",印度當局也在"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/vs2bZO4cYbKpFccM2QiH","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"遏制"}]},{"type":"text","text":"中國出海企業,在這樣的形勢下,全球化何以爲繼?中國科技公司能怎麼去“掙全球的錢”?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據印度媒體1月26日報道,印度政府將永久封禁包括微信在內的59款中國App,這批App早在去年6月就被下過禁令,但印度當局最初並沒有徹底將路堵死,而是要求它們回答政府的一連串質疑,包括數據收集和處理方法、數據安全及隱私等。如今,印方對這些App給出的答覆並不滿意,因此決定將禁令永久化。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"打擊接連而來"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“紛亂複雜、捉摸不定纔是正常的國際商業環境。外面真實的世界就是這個樣子,妖魔鬼怪一直都在。發生在華爲、TikTok身上的事情,已經在很多國際化公司多次重演。”APUS創始人兼CEO李濤如是說。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2020年6月以來,印度接連“封殺”中國App。當年6月,政府信息技術部宣佈,以 “有損印度主權和完整、印度國防、國家安全和公共秩序”爲由,禁用59款來自中國的應用,包括抖音海外版TikTok、微信、微博、百度地圖、UC瀏覽器、快手海外版Kwai、QQ等。7月,印度再禁47個App,大多與前面被封禁的59個應用程序有不同程度的關聯。9月,印度對中國App的封殺名單再添118個。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"前後三輪下來,已有超過200箇中國App遭印度當局下架,其中不乏《絕地求生》手遊(PUBG MOBILE LITE)、企業微信、支付寶等出海頭部應用。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在9月份印度政府下架的上百款中國App中,TOP6均來自APUS這家中國互聯網公司。APUS作爲中國最早的一批中國出海應用互聯網公司,2020年惡劣的行業環境並未對APUS造成太大影響,反而2020 Q1、Q2 APUS營收呈逆勢增長趨勢。李濤表示,“影響僅僅在於,如果沒有疫情的話,我們大概率會增長得更快。” "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對APUS而言,這並不是第一次遭遇類似的打擊。早在2016年,APUS就實現了基於安卓移動生態的商業化盈利,但隨着谷歌廣告政策的不斷改進和收緊,靠流量廣告變現的“躺賺”之路開始變得不好走了。Apus Launcher桌面應用被要求整改,APUS的谷歌廣告賬號在18年遭到谷歌封禁。但也正因爲有了“前車之鑑”,APUS兩年前就開始調整業務戰略,才得以在風雲變幻的市場中頑強發展。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一備受關注的同行“獵豹移動”則被打得有些措手不及。2020年,獵豹移動旗下所有App被谷歌全面封殺,直接導致公司近22%的營收化爲烏有。其一季度財報顯示,公司總收入5.28億元,同比下降51.4%,海外移動工具業務收入同比下降62.6%;利潤也由盈轉虧,從去年歸屬股東710萬的淨利潤變成淨虧損1.04億。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"獵豹移動董事長傅盛在接受採訪時更一度感慨道:“我知道工具會退潮,從2015年就知道。所以那時候我們開始搞內容、搞AI。但我們從來沒有想到,變化會是斷崖式的。”但他也說,只要堅持不下牌桌,就還有機會拿一手好牌。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/f1\/a4\/f10f5e4e8e0b0bdbf7030b2f2ecdcca4.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"AI和智能機器人是獵豹移動當前最想講的故事。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但TikTok在美國面臨的“賣身”問題卻棘手很多,並給行業提出了一個問題:當產品做得很大的時候,是不是也會面臨TikTok的情況?主打國際社交的中國出海應用WorldTalk就曾被投資人問過類似問題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“當時我真不知道怎麼回答,這個問題很難回答。”WorldTalk運營總監雷華萍表示,這個問題算是終極問題,反過來想,作爲創業者,如果真能走到那個階段,企業也算是成功了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"疫情再次催熱了社交產品市場,但資本變得更加謹慎。雷華萍坦言,公司在2020年的融資進程並不順利,但已經實現收支平衡,因此2021年的目標是加強內部造血能力,提高收益,“資本應該是錦上添花的事情,而不是雪中送炭。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"回航、轉舵"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據財新網報道,由於TikTok印度禁令遲遲未解,TikTok印度團隊已經在1月27日召開員工會通告裁員決定,與之對應的國內運營團隊也已在考慮縮減規模。其中,印度當地將裁去過半運營崗位員工,數量大約在30名左右,目前其他崗位的裁員規模尚不明確。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在海外形勢難以把控的大環境下,不少出海企業開始將重心移回到國內,加快推動在國內市場的業務發展。比如,頭部出海企業觸寶在國內推出的網文平臺瘋讀小說發展迅速。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"第三方數據機構QuestMobile《中國移動互聯網2020半年大報告》顯示:“App用戶規模千萬級玩家”賽道中,免費在線閱讀領域瘋讀小說以黑馬姿態首次入榜,以2488.18萬的MAU排名第59,緊隨番茄、七貓其後,躋身免費在線閱讀App市場前三。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事實上,觸寶早期起步於國內市場,當時的明星產品是觸寶電話,後來打開海外市場主要依靠一款輸入法產品——觸寶輸入法。該輸入法支持120多種語言,單款產品下載量超過6億。觸寶公關負責人宋宇表示,自2017年遭遇下架事件後,公司就不斷調整業務架構,縮減工具類產品矩陣,並逐漸從一家應用型公司轉型成泛娛樂生態公司。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"宋宇直言,幾乎所有的出海公司都逃避不了這樣一個現狀,即對谷歌生態過於依賴,尤其是它的廣告平臺帶來的變現。觸寶爲擺脫對壟斷生態的依賴,18年上市之後就推出了自己的廣告平臺,所以後來在變現方面基本能夠自給自足,可以通過自己的內循環經營下去。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雖然觸寶成功在競爭激烈的網文市場分得了一杯羹,但網文平臺的免費模式仍存在不少質疑的聲音。首先,免費模式容易影響用戶體驗,其次,廣告營收是否能支撐平臺和內容成本也有待市場檢驗。爲了與巨頭持續爭奪流量和客戶,觸寶在營銷上持續投入,這導致觸寶的盈利情況並不理想。未來如何把控內容質量和廣告投放的平衡,通過內容和增值服務留住客戶並實現流量變現,對觸寶來說仍是很大的挑戰。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"APUS的核心市場戰略亦從“出海”轉向“全球化”,既佈局國內市場,也繼續開闢美國、歐洲、日本等發達國家市場。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“全球化的市場策略分散了風險,使APUS避免了過度依賴單一市場,也對沖了疫情和國際關係變化對APUS的影響。”李濤表示,國內市場上有很多小公司都不敢去創新,留出了很大的空白和機會。據瞭解,APUS正在國內積極嘗試和探索to G和to B市場。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"熱門風口:跨境電商"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在全球大部分國家因疫情陷入生產停滯之際,中國製造業卻迎來了巨大機會。跨境電商增長尤其迅猛,2020年通過海關跨境電子商務管理平臺驗放進出口清單24.5億票,同比增長63.3%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"天眼查App顯示,中國2020年前10月已新增超過9.5萬家跨境電商相關企業,同比去年增長79.22%。其中,第二季度新增超過3.5萬家相關企業,環比增長58.8%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"深耕互聯網出海服務多年的白鯨出海創始人魏方丹告訴InfoQ,2021年白鯨將重點關注DTC模式(Direct to Consumer,直達消費者),DTC品牌因去除中間環節而性價比高,是跨境電商的重要賽道,DTC品牌出海背後的意義不只是供應鏈的出海,更是中國品牌崛起的重要機會。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/3f\/8e\/3fdfae46a2242e01c400a639f876cb8e.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"跨境電商公司SheIn,是中國最神祕的百億美元公司,被視爲跨境電商品牌化的標杆。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"魏方丹認爲,工具類App和遊戲的競爭態勢非常激烈,而跨境電商的市場規模容量之大、品類之多,將更容易誕生“獨角獸”。此外,這兩年也有不少做工具\/遊戲出海和做流量的人轉進跨境電商,因爲他們認爲自己對流量很瞭解,也知道海外市場是什麼樣的,只是不知道供應鏈怎麼做,倉儲怎麼做,以及品牌怎麼打造。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"跨境電商企業店匠Shoplazza也瞄向了DTC出海市場,其業務範圍主要爲SaaS建站系統和DTC品牌出海營銷服務。據店匠聯合創始人兼CTO夏冰介紹,2020年公司客戶增速比較快,對公司技術層面來說,面臨的挑戰主要在於如何保證服務的穩定性和安全性。爲此公司在不斷加大研發投入,包括吸納更多人才以及增加服務器的投入等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"夏冰表示,深圳的頭部賣家基本是採取平臺加獨立站的雙軌模式來運作。相比亞馬遜等大平臺模式,獨立站模式的品牌性會更強,直接觸及消費者,把握消費者全生命週期,意味着生意會變得更長期。所以現在越來越多跨境電商將會在獨立站上有更多的投入。“相信未來中國供應鏈的優勢會進一步發揮出來。從海外獨立站的趨勢看,來源於中國供應鏈的商品比例會越來越高。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"出海,還是那片海嗎?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據金融時報統計,到2019年中國投資者投入印度的資金達14億美金。以2018年爲例,印度排名前100的應用,有44家來自中國開發者。然而幾乎一夜之間,印度當局的一紙禁令封禁了59款中國應用,印度,一下子從藍海變爲投資禁區。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TikTok禁令事件也發人深省。李濤指出,疫情讓更多的人有時間上網,但是又碰上包括中美貿易衝突、去年印度對整個中國互聯網企業連續3至4次的封禁事件,對中國出海企業來說,是敲響了一個警鐘。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"魏方丹進一步表示,出海企業將比以往更重視法律上的投入和知識產權事宜,風險意識更強。在產品初級階段就得考慮更合規的做法,畢竟像TikTok這樣被認爲所有操作都合規合法的情況下,也還是會受到不公正待遇。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雖然市場存在危機,也有着越來越多的不確定性,但宏觀來看,出海仍是一門有得做的生意。App Annie近日發佈的《2021年移動市場報告》顯示,用戶的應用習慣尚未完全形成——全球對於新應用的需求仍呈增長趨勢,下載量同比增長7%,達到2180億,目前正是獲取用戶的好時機。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外,消費者將更多現實需求寄託於移動應用,用戶支出再創新高,達到1430億美元,同比增長20%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"儘管TikTok度過了不安穩的一年,但它仍然席捲全球。報告指出,TikTok超過Facebook,成爲2020年iOS和Android下載量最高的應用程序。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TikTok在使用時長排行榜中排名前5,其用戶平均每月使用時長增長速度幾乎比其他所有應用都快,在美國達到70%,在英國達到80%。預計2021年TikTok的活躍用戶數有望達到12億。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/8d\/3e\/8d168983fc838c62b129497f954fc83e.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"國產遊戲出海也有喜人局面。米哈遊推出的《原神》自2020年9月底上市以來,迅速在多國流行起來,成爲新的現象級手遊。Sensor Tower數據顯示,米哈遊《原神》移動端上線2個月就吸金3.93億美元,12月新版本上線後,其移動端當天吸金超過1100萬美元,刷新中國手遊海外單日收入記錄。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外,《原神》還被蘋果官方評選爲App Store年度遊戲,這是中國手遊首次獲評蘋果年度應用。同時,《原神》還獲得了Google Play 2020年度最佳遊戲。這些案例也是中國企業出海潛力的有力證明。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“最重要的是,你拿到全球市場上的產品,必須是不可替代、不可禁的,國際化的本質是創新。”李濤說道。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"打壓還在繼續。2021年1月5日,美國時任總統特朗普簽署了《應對中國企業開發或控制的特定應用程序威脅的行政命令》(下稱《行政命令》)。其中涉及的8箇中國應用軟件爲:支付寶、掃描全能王、QQ錢包、茄子快傳、騰訊QQ、短視頻平臺VMate、微信支付和辦公軟件WPS Office。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"無論如何,市場一直都是風險和機遇共存,但中國互聯網出海的步伐不會輕易停下。"}]}]}
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