市值超萬億港元，那個CEO寫下70萬行代碼的公司上市了

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今天，快手正式在香港上市，開盤漲 194%，報 338 港元 \/ 股，發行價爲 115 港元 \/ 股。快手總市值一度高達 1.39 萬億港元。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"快手聯合創始人、董事長兼CEO宿華在上市致辭中提到，快手最在意的始終是人，是對人的尊重，對勞動和創造的尊重。快手將一如既往堅定地與用戶站在一起。宿華表示，快手選擇1024作爲股票代碼，是因爲1024代表了科技的力量和先進的生產力。快手希望用科技的力量，讓勞動和創造釋放更大的能量，讓價值創造者得到更好的回報。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"宿華還提到，在他最初的構想中，IPO這天，他不會出現在現場，只會在公司敲代碼。不過，儘管宿華來到了IPO敲鐘的現場，但他自己並沒有敲鐘，仍然是由6位快手的社區用戶代表來完成了敲鐘。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/af\/54\/af61689c0bab5fddede50f7891836454.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據快手2月4日發佈的公告，公司全球發售約3.65億股股份，所得款項淨額約412.76億港元。其中香港發售股份2191.32萬股，國際發售股份約3.43億股，另有15%超額配股權。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對於快手上市後的走勢，機構普遍預期向好。不過，截至目前，快手依舊處於鉅額虧損狀態。2020年前11個月，快手的總收入達到了525億元，但同期經營虧損94億元。對於虧損原因，快手錶示，根據其整體增持策略，由於不斷努力擴大用戶羣及提高用戶參與度、提高品牌知名度並發展整體生態系統，預計2020年銷售及營銷開支絕對金額較2019年會有所增加，因此預計2020年度的淨虧損額較2019年度會有所增加。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"實際上，這兩年快手在砸錢打廣告上確實是一擲千金。數據顯示，2017年快手銷售及營銷開支僅爲13.6億元，佔總收入的16.4%，而到了2020年前9個月達到了198億元，佔總收入的比重提升到48.8%。其中大部分資金用於推廣及廣告開支。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不過按照快手目前的市值，成功上市後，毫無疑問，也將會開啓一場造富運動。招股書顯示，截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日，根據快手前僱員持股計劃，4551 名快手公司員工認購 5.24 億 B 類股份，人均持股 11.5 萬，此外還有 4546 名非快手在職員工認購 3.21 億相關股份。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此番快手上市後，有不少老鐵要實現財富自由了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"技術服務於內容"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"短視頻或許是過去幾年的諸多互聯網風口裏，真正意義上的技術驅動型領域。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"5000 名研發員工，24 萬臺服務器，22 個網絡數據中心，半年研發投入 23 億，研發中心遍佈全球各地，下一代國際視頻編碼標準的主要貢獻者之一，CEO 曾經寫下 70 萬行 C++ 代碼，這是快手不爲人知的另一面。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"無論是內容分發的推薦算法，還是海量視頻存儲下的大數據技術，亦或是直播熱潮下無卡頓低延遲的音視頻技術，都是短視頻公司修煉的“技術內功”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從快手來看，CEO、CTO 等幾位創始人都是技術出身，對技術的推崇、對極致的追求從創立伊始便印刻在了快手的研發血液裏。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"推薦內容是與用戶最緊密聯繫的一環，可以說這一環直接決定了短視頻 App 的用戶粘性。快手內部針對核心場景的 AI 算法引擎部門名爲社區科學部，致力於用一整套 AI 解決方案實現核心場景下的算法邏輯。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"快手自研了針對短視頻 & 直播場景的多任務多目標推薦模型，在觸發、粗排、精排到端上重排全鏈路上，針對快手數十個交互行爲進行端到端建模，以留存爲最終優化目標融合多個預估目標，實時爲幾億用戶提供個性化內容推薦。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在圖神經網絡平臺方面，快手自研了圖神經網絡（KGNN），提供了一套支持超大規模異構動態圖推薦模型的標準工具。相比工業界主流方案有以下顯著優點：支持規模更大的圖模型（比如幾十億節點全用戶規模的圖）；支持動態訓練場景，分鐘級百萬樣本的實時訓練和圖更新。這也使得快手成爲短視頻行業首批將深度強化學習算法大規模應用於視頻推薦的公司之一。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在大規模實時推薦訓練平臺領域，快手自研了 Kuiba，提供了一套自研流式深度學習模型的訓練系統。與國內其他同類型方案相比，Kuiba 可以支持千億樣本萬億特徵推薦模型的在線實時並行訓練，並且具備優秀的在線預估服務性能。同時 API 接口豐富，與主流平臺接口如 TensorFlow、PyTorch 等兼容，模型研發迭代快。此外還支持 GPU 和 FPGA 等各種異構行硬件，線上訓練和預估的能效比高。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在視頻的分發邏輯上，快手也有一個非常有意思的現象：快手不希望頭部的視頻內容佔據太多的曝光，希望用經濟學上的基尼係數控制平臺上用戶之間的“貧富差距”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"快手設計的推薦機制，對明星、普通人都一視同仁。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“抖快”之間膠着纏鬥，未來路線或許會更驅同"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"早前就在坊間熱議快手欲赴港上市不久，最大對手抖音也被曝出要 IPO。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"短視頻領域創業者王京（化名）在接受 InfoQ 採訪時表示，字節跳動分拆抖音上市是正確的戰略選擇。“上市公司要對財報負責，對增長負責，這很容易導致一家公司可能不敢像以前那樣大量試錯了。字節跳動的業務模式必須要涉及很多賽道，把成熟的業務放到上市公司，把那些需要大量試錯的產品放在上市公司之外，才能保證試錯成本不受到財報業績的影響，這是一種很好的安排。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"快手成立於 2011 年，其前身是 GIF 快手，定位圖片工具應用。第二年，轉型做短視頻社區。抖音在 2016 年成立，定位音樂短視頻社區。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"根據招股書，截至 2020 年 6 月 30 日，快手中國應用程序及小程序平均日活躍用戶達 3.02 億，月活躍用戶達 7.76 億。截止2020年 8 月，抖音（包括抖音火山版）日活用戶超過 6 億。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在短視頻領域，抖音和快手已是絕對的頭部，用戶羣體上，快手在下沉市場盤踞，一二線城市更偏愛抖音。也有“南抖音，北快手”這一說。不過現在隨着它們各自變得越來越大，抖音和快手在用戶羣體上會出現交叉重合的問題。智氪研究院的數據顯示，2019 年 5 月快手和抖音的用戶重合度達到 46.5%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“快手和抖音的用戶體量已經超級龐大。現在兩個平臺加起來每天有八九億的日活，而線上總共可能只有 9 億-10 億多，臨近天花板了，短視頻領域已經不太可能再有很大的用戶紅利期了。到達這樣的體量後，抖音和快手肯定會相互‘侵蝕’對方的地盤，未來必然走向同質化”，吳啓明說。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"資深文娛基金投資人周林濤（化名）也觀察到了一些“驅同”的跡象，從產品迭代上看，快手越走越像抖音，抖音也越來越像快手。因此他判斷，未來這兩個平臺很可能在產品形態、流量端走向殊途同歸，只在調性和用戶羣體上略有差別。自上次辛巴事件後，快手會越來越多將流量拉到自己手裏，抖音爲了更好激勵內容創作者，會逐漸將流量開放給達人，二者在流量打法上差距不會太大。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"火星文化 CEO 李浩在接受 InfoQ 採訪時表示，目前抖音和快手最大的差異化在於，核心內容分發掌握在誰的手裏。快手的內容分發帶有很強的社區屬性，有強用戶關係，屬於私域流量。而抖音則是算法分發，是去中心化的平臺。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這種基因的不同也決定了它們在商業化路徑上的差異。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"目前在娛樂直播打賞方面，快手的打賞收入要比抖音高，因爲快手的產品特質使得用戶與紅人之間的聯繫更密切，用戶更願意爲網紅打賞。直播打賞業務目前是快手商業化的核心業務之一，招股書顯示，2017-2019 年，快手直播打賞業務收入分別爲 79 億、186 億、314 億，分別佔總收入的 95.3%、91.7%、80.4%，"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而快手的廣告收入雖然已經做到了百億規模，但跟抖音比仍有一定差距，因爲抖音採用算法分發內容的特質，使得它能夠提供足夠多的廣告位，且廣告較精準、廣告價值高，從而獲得龐大廣告收入。招股書提到，在 2017-2019 年三年內，快手線上營銷服務收入從 3.906 億元增至 17 億元增至 74 億元，分別佔總收入的 4.7%、8.2%、19.0%、13.0%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自2018 年推出電商業務以來，快手電商業務發展迅速，招股書顯示，截至 2020 年 6 月 30 日，快手電商業務商品交易總額達到人民幣 1096 億元。快手平臺的平均重複購買率達 60%以上。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“抖快”在電商方面的不同點在於，快手佔大頭的電商多掌握在一些頭部主播大家族裏，例如辛巴。而抖音的很多電商側重涵蓋各種品牌，由於靠算法分發流量，抖音的達人在獲取直播電商流量分配時，可能會給平臺付費。因此，王京判斷，未來很可能抖音的電商收入高於快手。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"招股書中，快手提到，電商業務的風險在於平臺無法控制平臺上商戶及買家的可靠及誠信以及與商戶合作的物流供應商的服務質量，可能有損害品牌的風險。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"周林濤表示，這是快手電商邏輯中存在的一個缺點，向大主播集中的私域流量的玩法多是實物打賞的邏輯，缺乏基於產品和品牌的邏輯。有時甚至有的主播不知道賣的什麼東西，粉絲可能存在盲目下單行爲，這容易導致高退貨率。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"他認爲，能夠跑得通的成功的電商邏輯應該具備兩個標準。一是財務指標，復購率高、退貨率低，無論是品牌供應鏈還是主播都能夠有利潤空間。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"二是定性標準。即，平臺上能否“長”出一個新的品牌，類似於淘寶帶火了“國貨”品牌。大品牌往往是哪裏有流量去哪裏，電商的成功，必然會伴隨着一些品牌的成功崛起。從這點上看，快手和抖音未來都有很大的發展空間。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"快手在招股書中披露，快手未來新的商業化機會可能出現在網絡遊戲、在線知識分享、本地服務等衆多領域。值得一提的是，由於快手比抖音有更高的男性用戶比例，在發展遊戲等業務上可能會比抖音更有優勢。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"快手不再佛系"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不同於抖音身上帶有字節系“大力出奇跡”的明顯風格，由於最初的社區基因，快手先前一直走粗放式發展路線，也因此給外界形成了一種“佛系”的印象。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"陳文飛（化名）所在的公司與快手和抖音都有合作關係。在實際的接觸中，他能明顯的感覺到，快手是一家沒有那麼強的“狼性”的公司。“如果跟阿里、字節跳動這樣的狼性十足的公司比，快手確實有點佛系”，陳文飛說，前者如果想做一件事，會快速調動資源，迅速幹起來。快手做事、更新迭代的節奏相對較慢，做事風格很像騰訊。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2019 年 6 月，快手創始人宿華、程一笑發出了一封內部信。這被認爲是，快手不再佛系的轉變標誌。在信中，兩位創始人罕見地措辭嚴厲，直接指快手存在的反應慢，組織鬆散等問題。他們強調，快手要改變佛系的態度，開啓戰鬥模式。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自內部信後，快手的作風可以說來了一個 180 度大轉彎，變得愈發高調和狼性了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"內部信確定了一個目標，2020 年春節之前，快手主站達到 3 億 DAU（日活）。當時快手主站 DAU 是 2 億，這意味着要在半年內裏增加 1 億 DAU。有快手員工向媒體透露，自從提出 3 億 DAU 的目標後，部門開始了大小周工作模式。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"商業化也開始提速。內部信發出 1 個月後，2019 年快手的商業營收目標在原來百億的基礎上再加碼 50%，達到 150 億元。此前定下的 2020 年的 GMV 目標原本調高到 1000 億，後來在抖音調高 2000 億後，快手電商將目標調高至 2500 億。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"快手對外發聲越來越密集，它也在探索如何“出圈”。2020 年春節，快手拿下了春晚紅包獨家合作權。接下來，快手電商直播頻頻請一些科技大佬和明星站臺，簽下了周杰、鄭爽首場直播，簽約張雨綺成爲代言人，董明珠、丁磊等大佬在快手上直播帶貨。後又與與江蘇衛視打造了一千零一夜大型晚會..."}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"提速“大招”帶來了不錯的成績單。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"截止2020 年 6 月 30 日，快手中國程序和小程序平均日活 3.02 億。截止 5 月 30 日，快手的日活躍用戶突破 2 億。而 2018 年底時，快手的 DAU 還僅爲 1.6 億。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"主管快手廣告和營銷業務商業化的快手高級副總裁馬宏彬曾表示，2020年 1-8 月，快手商業化營收比前一年同期增長 2.5 倍，頭部客戶新增 2.6 倍。2020 年 8 月快手電商訂單量超 5 億單，過去 12 個月，快手電商累計訂單總量僅次於淘寶天貓、京東、拼多多。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"佛系的快手正在逐漸磨礪自己身上的狼性。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"快手爲什麼變了？這裏面或許是多重因素疊加的結果。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2018 年，快手面臨着抖音巨大的競爭壓力，2018 年年中，抖音日活破 1.5 億，與快手相當，此後實現逆襲，超越快手成爲行業第一。2019 年，抖音廣告營收 600-700 億元，超出快手（120-130 億）幾倍。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“我覺得，其實在 2018 年，快手就已經輸了。未來與抖音的短視頻戰役，它很可能也會輸”，周林濤表示，這種轉變更多來自於快手對於自己流量的焦慮，來自於短視頻優勢逐漸削弱的壓力。快手更早看到了它在短視頻 DNA 上的瓶頸，因此它提升了變現的要求，希望儘早的變現。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從這個角度上看，周林濤覺得，對於快手來說，現在上市，時機很好。這幾年可能是最後的機會，因爲如果再不上的話，後面一旦和抖音差距進一步拉大，情況可能會越來越不利。在資本市場上，現在它還可以去搶“短視頻第一股”的概念，但如果未來它的短視頻 DAU 佔比越來越低，可能就很難再打這個概念了。因此快手現在迫切希望上市融資，以鞏固其在短視頻領域的地位。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"相比抖音，快手在流量端略顯疲態。但周林濤認爲，在商業化變現上快手還遠遠沒有到達瓶頸期，它還有很多基礎設施可以去完善，很多變現路徑可嘗試，在變現端還有很大的空間。“留給快手的機會不多了。現在留給快手的機會就是，儘快的推進資本化，儘快建設好基礎設施，做好商業化變現，在流量略顯疲態的情況下，不要流失流量，並將手中的流量做好變現，實現流量與變現的權衡”。"}]}]}