羣雄逐鹿，誰會贏得自動駕駛之戰？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自動駕駛技術行業今天正處於一種奇怪的狀態。過去多年來，整個行業已經在自動駕駛技術上投入了龐大的資金，其中許多公司都擁有了看起來跑得不錯的自動駕駛汽車原型。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但據我所知，只有一家公司推出了完全無人駕駛的商業出租車服務 — Waymo，而且只有一家公司 — Nuro —在公共道路上運行着無人駕駛的商業遞送服務。你可能會認爲這些公司可以迅速擴張，充分利用早期的領先優勢，但他們似乎都沒有這樣做。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"同時，包括Cruise和Mobileye在內的其他一些從業者也表示，他們計劃在2023年之前推出大規模的商業服務。但是，許多自動駕駛公司都一再推遲了他們曾經預設的發佈期限，因此目前我們無法確定這些企業的計劃是否能夠實現。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"簡而言之，預測未來幾年的進展是一個挑戰。因此本文要做的預測不是一項而是八項：我將未來分解爲八種可能的場景，每種場景的出現概率都很大。希望這種預測方法可以很好地展現當今自動駕駛公司所採用的多種策略。從現在開始再過十年，我們就能回顧今日，看到哪些公司或方法位於正確的軌道上。但在目前，我們能做的只有猜測。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1、Waymo獲勝（20％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/43\/dd\/438104b5bf2bc54137f5d6b5ec6378dd.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自從十多年前谷歌推出自動駕駛汽車計劃以來，Waymo就一直被視爲自動駕駛行業的技術領導者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在樂觀的情況下，Waymo將保持並擴大其當前的領先優勢。它將把無人出租車服務從鳳凰城市區的一個角落擴展到整個鳳凰城，然後穩步擴展到其他都會區。運營最大的無人出租車服務可以讓Waymo獲得比其他任何公司更多的實際駕駛數據和運營經驗，這可以讓它進一步改善軟件並保持領先地位。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"那麼爲什麼我只給Waymo 20％的概率？雖然Waymo看起來仍然是技術層面的領導者，但它並沒有像幾年前許多人（顯然包括Waymo自己的領導者）預期的那樣充分利用自己的領先優勢。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2018年，Waymo宣佈了購買“最多”82,000輛汽車來壯大自己的出租車隊，這表明該公司認爲它正處於大規模商業擴張的前夜。但是今天，它的車隊仍然只有幾百輛汽車而已。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我不知道Waymo爲何進步這麼緩慢。也許他們的軟件對鳳凰城郊區做的優化太多了；也許他們的硬件或後端支持成本太高而難以盈利；或者Waymo希望在大規模擴張之前解決一些長期存在的安全性或可靠性問題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但無論出現什麼問題，它應該都不會那麼快消亡，這樣其他公司也能從中看到希望。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2、另一家無人出租車公司獲勝（25％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/e5\/dd\/e56a7bcbe0c5acdec8853713c5a928dd.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"很多公司都在推行與Waymo相同的基礎策略，也就是建立和運營一個無人出租車隊。這些公司包括："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Cruise（由通用、本田等公司所有）"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Argo（福特和大衆所有）"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Motional（由現代和汽車零部件供應商Aptiv所有）"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Zoox（一家初創公司，最近被亞馬遜收購）"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Aurora（一家初創公司，最近被優步的自動駕駛計劃收購）"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果Waymo失敗了，我認爲問題最有可能在業務執行上：Waymo依舊擁有行業領先的技術，但無法迅速擴張來充分利用它。相比在一個大都會市區中運營一個幾百輛出租車的服務來說，在數十個城市中運營數十萬輛出租車的服務完全是兩回事。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由汽車製造商支持的公司，如Cruise、Argo和Motional，可能擁有更大的能力來迅速擴大自動駕駛汽車的生產規模。亞馬遜顯然在處理大型物流問題方面具有豐富的經驗。而且Aurora與優步有着密切的關係，後者可能會爲Aurora提供對自身租車網絡的優先訪問權。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3、特斯拉（和Comma.ai）獲勝（5％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/12\/b7\/1294edde96177406b3899db41a21feb7.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這會讓特斯拉的粉絲興奮不已，但我認爲這的確有可能：特斯拉長遠更有優勢。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"特斯拉獲勝的情況是，它可以獲取從客戶的車輛收集的大量現實世界的駕駛數據。如果你認爲訓練數據不足是改善自動駕駛算法的主要瓶頸所在，那麼這可能是特斯拉一個顯著優勢。與其他研究自動駕駛技術的公司相比，特斯拉首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克對風險的偏好也更大。馬斯克願意在道路上使用未經驗證的技術，這可能會加速特斯拉的發展，儘管這會帶來更大的致命事故風險。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一方面，特斯拉也有一些明顯的劣勢。該公司的商業模式（向最終用戶銷售汽車）意味着激光雷達傳感器和高密度地圖會因爲財務因素而難以部署。埃隆·馬斯克試圖將這種情況說成是正面的，他說激光雷達是“柺杖”。但事實是，幾乎其他所有公司都在使用激光雷達和高清地圖，因爲大家認爲這是有用的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"更坦率來說，如果看一看特斯拉軟件實踐中的運行視頻，很難得出結論說特斯拉處於領先地位，甚至很難說他們在追上領先者。特斯拉稱爲“完全自動駕駛Beta”（很不幸他們取了這樣的名字）的軟件在Waymo汽車多年前就能的場景中經常犯糊塗。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果我錯了，特斯拉的策略確實成功了，那對Comma.ai來說將是一個好消息。這是一家由傳奇黑客George Hotz創立的自動駕駛創業公司。Comma正在構建旨在智能手機上運行的開源自動駕駛系統。Comma的策略是讓早期採用者能夠改造自己的汽車，從Comma基於智能手機的軟件中獲取方向盤輸入，然後Comma會使用從早期客戶那裏收集的數據來進一步改進軟件，方法基本和Tesla相同。像特斯拉一樣，Comma也避開了激光雷達，認爲它可以通過智能手機級相機實現足夠的性能。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果說特斯拉是這個行業中的蘋果公司，那麼Hotz的最終目標是讓Comma成爲Android。也就是說，如果特斯拉成爲自動駕駛技術的領導者，那麼其他汽車製造商將需要購買自動駕駛技術授權才能與特斯拉競爭。Hotz希望Comma的軟件成爲汽車製造商的行業標準，就像Android是非蘋果生產的智能手機的行業標準一樣。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4、Mobileye（及其合作伙伴）獲勝（10％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/ed\/ed10de9589d205c74369cb32c60b3c5e.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"來自Mobileye的自動駕駛汽車在底特律的街道上穿行。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"英特爾於2017年收購的以色列公司Mobileye具有一些顯著優勢。作爲高級駕駛員輔助系統（ADAS）的領先提供商，Mobileye與許多汽車製造商都有合作關係。該公司利用這些關係從衆多客戶的汽車中獲取數據，從而使Mobileye能夠獲得大量現實世界中的道路數據。Mobileye在ADAS市場上的主導地位也讓它積累了豐富的工程人才資源。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"與特斯拉一樣（但與Waymo等公司不同），Mobileye認爲，行業可以通過逐步改進ADAS來實現完全的無人駕駛。Mobileye希望能提供越來越出色的ADAS，直到某個時候客戶可以放開手，在駕駛員座位上小睡片刻。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"同時，Mobileye並沒有像特斯拉那樣面臨財務約束。有英特爾母公司的支持，Mobileye擁有同時探索多種技術方法的資源。像Waymo一樣，Mobileye在激光雷達上進行試驗，並在公共街道上測試完全自動駕駛技術（測試時讓安全員坐在方向盤後）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Mobileye的計劃是將其芯片、傳感器和軟件授權給一系列客戶。因此，如果Mobileye的技術行之有效，它可以讓一些較小的公司來嚐鮮。例如，遞送服務初創公司Udelv最近宣佈，他們計劃在2023年至2028年之間在至少35,000個交付機器人中使用Mobileye的技術。Mobileye希望在幾年內擁有幾十家像Udelv這樣的客戶。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"行業最愛？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Mobileye的勝利對於其他汽車製造商來說也會是個好消息，因爲這意味着它們不太可能受到Waymo、特斯拉或其他暴發戶的壓制。Mobileye的主要業務是向汽車製造商提供技術授權，因此如果Mobileye開發出領先的自動駕駛技術棧，汽車製造商應該能夠輕鬆地將其集成到自己的現有產品線中。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Mobileye已發佈了一些令人印象深刻的技術視頻。但是，人們很難只根據一些視頻來判斷自動駕駛技術的發展水平。許多公司都已經發布了令人印象深刻的視頻，但大多數公司對自己的技術並沒有足夠的信心，所以還沒有推出自動駕駛商業服務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Mobileye的業務模式（將其技術授權給從汽車製造商到運營送貨車隊的公司的各種客戶）也可能會阻礙這家公司的發展。爲一種特定的應用開發自動駕駛技術已經足夠困難了。Mobileye希望開發一種能夠在各種應用場景中良好運行的單一技術棧，那可能是不現實的。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"5、中國獲勝（15％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/cc\/7c\/cc43570da6238fc8803f3a3deb85fd7c.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2021年4月，小馬智行的自動駕駛汽車在北京行駛。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自動駕駛領域有很多國際合作項目，本田和大衆汽車等海外公司會投資美國的自動駕駛項目，英特爾收購了以色列的Mobileye。但是中國基本上在自己玩自己的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"中國有一些穩定發展的自動駕駛公司，這些公司的進展在很大程度上獨立於西方國家。中國領先的自動駕駛公司包括AutoX、小馬智行、文遠知行、搜索巨頭百度和叫車公司滴滴出行。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"去年12月，AutoX成爲中國第一家在公共道路上測試完全自動駕駛車輛的公司，儘管這只是純技術的測試，而不是商業化自動駕駛服務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我沒有看過關於這些公司的多少報道，所以我無法深入探討它們的前景。但基本上很清楚的是，如果美國自動駕駛公司將面臨嚴峻的海外競爭，則這種競爭最有可能來自中國。（除中美外，最強大的海外公司可能是俄羅斯的Yandex。）從理論上講，中國權力集中而相對稱職的政府可以找到一些方法來加速國內自動駕駛技術的發展，例如建立支持性基礎設施或是讓企業擁有更大的自由度。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是到目前爲止，中國公司似乎並沒有明顯領先於美國公司，因此我認爲這種可能性並沒有那麼大。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"6、自動駕駛卡車獲勝（5％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/58\/09\/58f35e8ecfa75e1a48bfyyf5df8e6009.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自動駕駛汽車得到了最多的關注，但是很少有自動駕駛公司認爲卡車（而不是汽車）將是自動駕駛技術的第一大應用。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"諸如Kodiak、Embark和TuSimple之類的公司專注於實現長途貨運路線的自動化。另外兩家公司（Waymo和Aurora）正在對沖賭注，同時研究卡車和出租車項目。送貨初創公司Nuro（我將在下文中詳細討論）也在去年收購了Ike加入了長途卡車運輸行業。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"其中一些公司正在設計僅在高速公路上自主運行的系統。在這種模式下，駕駛員將把卡車開到高速公路附近的中轉站，然後拖車被轉移到自動駕駛卡車上。無人卡車會在高速公路上將拖車拖到另一個城市，然後拖車將被切換到另一輛有人卡車上，後者走完最後幾英里的複雜城市道路，將貨物運至最終目的地。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這種模式有許多優點。高速公路是受控的環境，通常沒有行人、騎自行車的人和其他障礙物。它們通常標記清晰，並且沒有複雜的交叉路口。這些因素可能會讓高速公路駕駛自動化的任務變得相對簡單。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從理論上講，公司可以將自動駕駛卡車從早期成功中獲得的數據和經驗用到其他市場，最終發展成爲各種自動駕駛應用的領跑者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是，我仍然對自動駕駛卡車持懷疑態度，原因很簡單：儘管高速公路在某些層面上更容易導航，但潛在的失敗成本卻非常高。如果滿載的半掛卡車在每小時70英里的速度下失控，則可能造成巨大的損失。而且沒什麼方法來漸進測試這種技術。這些公司遲早都需要按下按鈕，讓卡車以高速公路的速度自行駕駛。我懷疑短期內並不會有人有足夠的信心承擔這種風險，或者有監管者願意承擔這種風險。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"7、送貨機器人獲勝（10％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/8d\/20\/8d1324c623736952e1cbf226bc1a5220.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Nuro最近宣佈了一個試點項目，在休斯頓遞送Domino的比薩餅。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Nuro是另一家計劃運送物品而非人員的公司。但是，Nuro並沒有讓高速公路上的大型高速卡車自動化，而是研發了針對住宅區街道優化的小型低速送貨機器人（Nuro的車輛比人行道機器人更大、更快）。這是自動駕駛車輛的一種有吸引力的初始應用場景，因爲以每小時最高25英里（40km\/h）的速度行駛的小型機器人不太可能撞死什麼人。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"兩年前我提出了一個論點，說專注於低速場景的Nuro等初創公司可能會擊敗Waymo。我在那篇文章中提到的另一家初創公司是Voyage，該公司正在佛羅里達州的一個退休社區發展低速出租車服務。我認爲，在受控環境中專注於低速運營將大大簡化技術挑戰，讓這些公司比試圖爲整個都市地區運營全速出租車服務的公司更早進入市場。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我認爲，一旦這些公司掌握了簡單場景的自動駕駛技術，它們便可以利用自己收集的數據和運營經驗來推向高端市場，並最終擊敗專注於更具挑戰性駕駛任務的公司（如Waymo）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這個預測並不怎麼符合現實。的確，Waymo很難將自己的技術大規模推向市場，但是目前尚不清楚像Nuro和Voyage這樣的初創公司是否能做得更好。Voyage在今年早些時候被Cruise收購。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Nuro仍然是一家獨立公司，並且看起來正在發展壯大。但是，Nuro的處境似乎與Waymo類似。例如，本週早些時候，Nuro啓動了一個爲Domino交付比薩餅的試點項目——這是最早於2019年宣佈的合作。像Waymo一樣，Nuro似乎已經處於大規模商業運營的前夜，可是黎明已經持續兩三年了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這並不一定意味着Nuro會做錯什麼事情——它可能只是需要多年的實踐才能讓自動送貨車跑起來。但是這種進展速度確實表明，專注於低速交付機器人並不是商業化的捷徑。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"儘管如此，事實上Nuro仍然是真正運營商業自動駕駛服務的少數公司之一。而且它可能會一點點積累經驗，這將讓它在未來幾年內迅速擴展。如果Nuro確實取得了成功，那對Zoox來說可能是個好消息。雖然Zoox主要致力於建立出租車服務，但它可以輕鬆轉型，爲其母公司亞馬遜製造無人駕駛送貨車。此外，如果Nuro獲得成功，我們可以期望其他許多構建自動駕駛技術棧的公司將Udelv作爲潛在的合作伙伴或收購目標。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"8、別的什麼人獲勝（10％）"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"技術市場總有辦法給我們帶來驚喜。或許我可能還沒有注意到的一些初創公司註定要讓上述資金雄厚的公司顏面掃地。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一種可能性是“人人都贏”。也許自動駕駛不是一個問題，而是一系列單獨的問題，每個問題都需要精心設計的技術棧來解決。也許自動駕駛出租車、自動駕駛車輛和自動駕駛卡車是三個不同的市場，每個市場都將由各自的公司集團主導。也許這一技術的早期版本將需要大量的人工監督，我們將逐步從人類驅動的車輛過渡到無人駕駛的車輛。我認爲這種結果可能性不大，但並不是不存在。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一個可能性是沒有人能贏得勝利：即使經歷了數年的挫折，自動駕駛仍是一個比人們想象的還要困難的問題，而且要花幾十年而不是幾年的時間才能解決。在這種情況下，我們可能會再度走進“人工智能冬天”，許多公司都會縮減在這一領域的研究。再說一次，我認爲這種結果可能性不大，但並不是不存在。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作者介紹"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Timothy B.Lee是一位高級記者，他的報道涵蓋技術政策、區塊鏈技術和交通運輸的未來。他住在華盛頓特區。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文鏈接："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/cars\/2021\/04\/who-will-win-the-self-driving-race-here-are-8-possibilities\/?fileGuid=hf3RWPkIQz0o9odI","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/cars\/2021\/04\/who-will-win-the-self-driving-race-here-are-8-possibilities\/"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"福利推薦"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在數字化的浪潮下，掌握數字化能力，已經不能算是競爭優勢了，而是會逐漸成爲起跑線問題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但，到底什麼叫數字化？什麼是數字化轉型？和信息化的關係是什麼？技術人要學點什麼技能呢？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"推薦 IBM 副合夥人付曉巖的《說透數字化轉型》專欄，爲你梳理一整套數字化人才成長指南，詳解 6 大轉型關鍵技術，15+ 經典案例，幫助你建立一套系統的轉型知識框架。早鳥 + 口令「shuzihua8」到手 ¥89，原價 ¥129，掃碼免費試讀👇"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/1b\/cc\/1b17e9bb4e1a751496da02a4ddc19ecc.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static.geekbang.org\/infoq\/5c6947ecc1649.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}