打字員爲什麼要去看商業模式

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"其實這是一篇讀書筆記,作爲一名勤懇的Java打字員,不知道爲什麼微信讀書給我推了這一本","attrs":{}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://book.douban.com/subject/34923245/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《商業的本質和互聯網》","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"text","text":"。頁數不多,標題挺唬人,索性就看了進去,總的來說這是一本互聯網經濟科普,查了一下作者","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"許小年","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":",是個大佬,這本書大概花了4個多小時看完,非常推薦在一線幹活的RD同學們也看一下,可以增加一些大局觀和對現今互聯網經濟的一些基本認知。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"互聯網之前","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人類在互聯網之前建立的第一張網絡就是交通網絡,交通網絡因爲蒸汽機的發明而產生了革命性的變化,俗稱工業革命。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"第二張網絡爲電力的網絡,直接將人類帶入電氣時代,俗稱第二次工業革命。","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這是否就意味着技術創新就能改變一切呢?並不能這麼說。首先技術的發展並沒有既定的方向,人類的想象力是無限的,蒸汽機發明之前也有無數的機械化設備發明,但最終留下來且被人們接受是瓦特和他的蒸汽機,這背後的原因一方面可能是歷史的巧合,另一個重要原因作者認爲是","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"市場規模","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"的推動。僅有技術創新還不足以改變生產方式,生產規模的擴大才能降低分攤的成本。纔有足夠的推動力去帶來生產革命。作者有關經濟增長的論述也讓我耳目一新,作爲一名Java打字員,之前我以爲的經濟增長就是賺到錢了。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有收入支持的消費需求反過來刺激生產,經濟進入供給和需求相互推動的良性循環,在宏觀層面上表現爲經濟增長。","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有關互聯網的一些經濟基本概念","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這兩章大部分是理論和公式,比較枯燥,但建立概念是分析的前提。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"規模經濟效應","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":":銷售利潤隨着產量的增加而上升。固定成本的佔比越高,單位成本隨產量下降的幅度越大。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"邊際成本遞減","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"和","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"邊際收益遞增","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":":這個很好理解,一個良性發展的公司每增加一單業務成本必然是遞減的,同時收益也是遞增的。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"梅特卡夫效應","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":":互聯網公司的市場價值與網絡節點數的平方成正比。“賠本賺吆喝”的公司不適用。網絡節點數可以理解爲活躍用戶數。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"雙邊市場效應","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":":不同類型用戶之間正反饋交互所創造的價值。","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作者舉例分析當下的電商和網約車平臺的價值模型:電商平臺有以下的角色,比如京東,蘇寧,亞馬遜(淘寶嚴格意義上不能算電商,電商一般是面向供應商採購,然後自行管理物流和用戶側交易):","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"供應商","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"電商平臺","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"買家","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"電商平臺作爲中介,讓買家和供應商隔絕了交流,杜絕了更多價值的可能性。網絡價值:","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"K1*(N+M)","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。其中N爲供應商數量,M爲用戶數量,K1爲係數。滴滴,優步,愛彼迎的交互模型:","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"房東/車主","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"平臺","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"用戶","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這三者均有直接的交流,網絡價值:","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"K2*(N*M)","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。共享單車等所謂“共享經濟”:與傳統行業沒有太大區別,只有平臺和用戶,網絡價值:","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"K3*N","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最後作者引用了另外一本書(","attrs":{}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://book.douban.com/subject/27171481/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《平臺革命》","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"text","text":")的一些觀點來闡述互聯網公司估值的三個準則:","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"梅特卡夫網絡效應——社交平臺多對多網絡","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雙邊市場效應——B2C平臺,電商,團購,外賣,打車","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"成本結構和規模效應——企業內部的組織和成本的優化以及外部的用戶規模","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"只有規模效應的公司對估值的加成很小。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"競爭","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當下多數的互聯網公司的打法依舊是以同質化的產品補貼用戶去搶佔市場,想法設法提升用戶規模,賠錢賺吆喝。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"齊白石說:學我者生,似我者死。","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"臉書在社交網絡方面擁有壓倒性優勢,活躍在專業人士中的領英(Linkedin)不僅沒有繳械投降,而且越辦越好,訣竅同樣是細分市場中的差異化服務。國內微信在社交媒體方面的地位類似於臉書,它也不能一枝獨秀,具有類似社交功能的微博與它並立,兩者既競爭又互補,微信着眼於小範圍的互動交流,微博則可以做大面積的信息發佈。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果不能差異化,公司的實力再強也難以動搖先發者的優勢。騰訊曾經試圖挑戰新浪微博在信息發佈和社交上的領先地位,於2010年推出騰訊微博,投入大量的人力和財力爭奪用戶,最終因收效甚微而不得不在2018年放棄。趕超之難在於新浪微博的免費使用,而客戶遷移到騰訊微博卻是有成本的,遷移成本不只是下載和熟悉新軟件所花費的時間,還有新浪微博上關注的對象和粉絲的損失。2011年騰訊發佈與微博不同的微信,這纔打開一片新的天地。微信的崛起並不意味着微博的末日,用戶註冊微信的同時保留了微博,因爲兩者存在差異,無法完全相互替代。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"眼看微信火爆,阿里不甘落後,於2013年隆重推出自己的社交產品“來往”,不料卻重蹈前人同質化的覆轍。來往被疑爲是微信的姊妹版,連Logo看上去都似曾相識,完全不能撼動微信的根基。待到阿里另闢市場,於2015年正式發佈面向企業的溝通平臺“釘釘”,方大獲成功,在社交媒體的競爭中扳回一城。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"規模不可怕,可怕的是同質化,是缺乏創新的能力。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number"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attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我聯想到了拼多多和國美的結盟。這本書出版之前,還沒這檔子事。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"金融和工業4.0","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"書中也順帶分析了當下十分火爆的幾個方向。作者認爲P2P的崩塌是必然的,因爲線上的網貸公司沒有能力做完善的風控。金融業的本質在於減少信息的不對稱:","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"風險控制之難,難在信息不對稱,資金的供應者(出借人)不瞭解資金使用者(借款人)的財務狀況和違約風險。降低出借人和借款人之間的信息不對稱,正是金融業應該爲實體經濟創造的價值。","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"也爲金融業提出了一個可能的方向:","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事實證明,小微金融大有可爲,關鍵要有正確的思路。服務小微企業必須依靠分散的、多樣化的和本地化的民營中小金融機構,面向社區和當地企業,藉助移動互聯網和當地的社會網絡,降低信息成本、風控成本和違約懲罰機制的成本,終極目標是降低利率,讓金融服務觸達儘可能多的基層經濟細胞。","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"考慮創業的朋友可以調研一下這個方向。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"互聯網如日中天的發展讓工業領域減少了大量的關注度和聲音。工業需要很強的細分領域知識和行業背景,而互聯網希望萬物互聯,這本身就產生了矛盾。互聯網的產品推倒重構是家常便飯,但工業流水線一旦建成可能需要使用幾十年,改造成本都很大,要重來更是不可能的事。工業與互聯網的結合,作者認爲可以分層:","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"SaaS:應用層,廠商自己開發","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"PaaS:平臺層,爲應用層提供通用的技術支持","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IaaS:基礎設施層,網絡,數據庫,容器等","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"互聯網的廠商可以做PaaS和IaaS,這是他們擅長的,具體細分到行業還是得由行業自己根據自身的積澱去開發適合自己的東西。相對於“互聯網思維”,工業互聯網更需要“行業思維”。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"尾聲","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有意思的是,2019年初,按營業收入排名的世界十大公司都是零售、石油和汽車等傳統行業,科技公司沒有一家入圍,科技公司在市值上的超越基本上靠高估值,也就是投資者評估的價值","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作者這有點唱衰互聯網的意思,難免有些片面了。就像作者自己所說的,新技術是經濟增長的根本和經久不衰的動力,是效率提升的根本來源,雖然科技公司沒有入圍,但科技公司提供的技術早已改變這個世界,也間接幫助了這些前十的公司。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"以上就是全部的內容,也混入了一些個人的看法,我知道現實遠比書中複雜,不過這本科普小冊子還是推薦大家看一下,尤其是像我這樣的Java/go/php/js打字員。","attrs":{}}]}]}
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