軟件技術從1996年以後就停滯不前了!?難道軟件技術難返“春天”了麼?

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#40A9FF","name":"blue"}}],"text":"前言","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2021年1月,前麻省理工學院研究員 Jonathan Edwards 撰寫了一篇名爲“警報:技術停滯”的博客引起了程序開發圈不小的轟動。同時作爲程序員的 Jonathan Edwards 以程序員的視角分析了從1996年到現在軟件技術的發展情況,難道真的如他所說的軟件技術在1996以後就停滯不前了嗎?從今往後互聯網圈再無昔日的繁榮了嗎?","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/85/857ebb93b4e82823b3f86e1100e51944.jpeg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Janathan Edwards寫的這篇有關軟件技術發展的博客,雖然詳細的分析了最近25年來軟件技術的發展狀況,也寫出了他對軟件技術發展的獨到看法,但是個人覺得他講的未必全對,那麼本文就來淺談一下當前的軟件技術真的就是從1996年以後就停滯了?軟件技術圈難道真的再無大的互聯網繁榮景象了?","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#40A9FF","name":"blue"}}],"text":"1996年以前的軟件圈發展概況","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"上世紀90年代,是軟件技術發展的加速期,第一款Worldwideweb出現在此時期,Java與Python都誕生於此時期,甚至被沿用至今的Visual studio版本都是在誕生在這一時期,它們都是上一個25年的歷史產物。所有的技術都是開創了軟件圈的先河,都成爲了軟件圈的鼻祖。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當時編程語言排行榜上Basic、C、C++以及Java之間的差距都不是很大,大家各有擁躉。如果站在那個時代以一個編程愛好者的角度來看,可以明顯地感受到計算機軟件在那時完全是爲了IT人員而設計的。不管是什麼軟件,如果IT基礎知識不充足,根本就無法看懂軟件的使用說明書,沒有說明書軟件是不可能玩轉的,而且這種現象在繪圖、CAD之類的軟件中存在也就算了,在當時即使是編程工具也是如此,熟悉使用Borland C++的程序員,換到微軟Visual Studio、C++編程都要費些功夫適應。IT業進入互聯網時代也有很大一部分原因是在於用戶厭倦了那些複雜的軟件產品帶來的不良感受,而當時體驗最棒的IT產品——互聯網,也就立刻變得特別鶴立雞羣,互聯網徐徐開啓時代大幕。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#40A9FF","name":"blue"}}],"text":"1996年以後的軟件圈發展概況","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"大部分的軟件技術都是在1996年之前的軟件技術基礎之上的做有用的增量改進。例如,Rails是通過以一種良好的結構化方式將一堆現有技術結合在一起而實現的。同樣,V8通過加速JavaScript,擴展Smalltalk和Java中發明的技術,使新應用程序成爲可能。但是還是有很多創新進步是史上前所未有的,比如移動互聯時代,機器語言學習,人工智能,大數據,雲計算以及開源社區的井噴式發展等等。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"軟件時代向互聯網時代的過渡期比較長,不過移動互聯時代的顛覆效應來得甚至令人猝不及防,隨着2009年開始iPhone及安卓系統的普及,直接把稱霸手機行業14年的諾基亞拉下馬來。人工智能就是這樣一種直接告訴你結論,但是卻不告訴你原因的技術,只要數據量大就有奇效。IT產業發展的20年,尤其是移動互聯的這幾年間,教會大家一個道理,就是專注自己擅長的業務,不能保證保證自己的基業長青,只有對整個產業進行全鏈條的掌控,方能立於不敗之地。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#40A9FF","name":"blue"}}],"text":"我們處於一個技術大爆炸時代,怎麼可能會出現技術革命的停滯?","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"很多人把技術大爆炸當成了一種不言而喻的真理。如果追問下去,你怎麼知道現在是一個技術大爆炸時代?大部分人很茫然,是媒體報導的,是老師說的,是書上看到的,各種回答都有。少部分人會舉例,你看100年前如何,現在如何。極少數人會引用歷史上的案例,比如比爾蓋茨的例子,比如喬布斯的例子,說明不能小看技術進步。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"過去200年的技術飛躍,讓人類逐漸形成了一種思維範式:技術會不停地快速發展下去。在過去幾十年中,這種觀念被媒體和科技利益集團不斷渲染強化。很多人陷入了某種範式牢籠,根本沒有考慮過,這種觀點是否正確。技術大爆炸只是對有限歲月的一個簡單總結,但在邏輯上,千萬不能把技術大爆炸當成是自證的真理。只要看看工業革命前的歷史,就會發現,在人類歷史上,文明停滯的時間遠遠超過工業革命以來的","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"200","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"年歲月。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"過去","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"40","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"年中,","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"IT","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"是唯一取得巨大飛躍的技術領域,深深影響了人類社會。很多人沉迷於手機電腦的翻新換代,怎麼可能有技術停滯呢?即使在過去40年內成就驚人,IT技術在深度上也遇到越來越多的問題。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#40A9FF","name":"blue"}}],"text":"技術改進和技術革命不是一回事!","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一般意義上的技術進步是指沿着一條技術道路對現有技術進行深入挖掘,或者是引入外部其他技術來進行外延擴展和改進。比如手機,從黑白屏到藍屏,到彩屏,到觸摸屏,信息溝通越來越方便,就是一系列典型的技術改進。電腦技術的更新換代,從單核到雙核,從640 K內存到4G內存,軟件版本的升級,window98,xp,win7,神舟一號,神舟二號……發動機材料的改進,等等,都是屬於技術改進範疇。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"技術革命是技術範式完全發生變革的結果。從技術軌道來看,單個技術系統的革命實質上是從一種技術系統的發展軌道跳躍到另一種技術系統發展軌道上去,因此技術革命是技術發展史上不連續的重大事件。所謂根本性創新,是指那種能夠導致投資高潮、產業結構發生變革的技術創新。技術上的質變,往往指的是技術革命。只有開闢一條全新的技術道路,才能真正的促進技術大進步,跨越技術臺階。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#40A9FF","name":"blue"}}],"text":"最後","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"現今前沿領域雖然有停滯現象,但技術的積累最終會解決此問題。必須指出的是,量變不一定能導致質變。技術革命和技術進步不同,意味着一種劃時代的新技術的發明,及其所導致的“根本性創新”的出現。所以軟件技術的“春天”即將來臨,請拭目以待吧!","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":"center","level":5},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#40A9FF","name":"blue"}}],"text":" 參考文獻","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.chinaz.com/news/2019/1021/1056357.shtml","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https://www.chinaz.com/news/2019/1021/1056357.shtml","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":" ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/24646722","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/24646722","attrs":{}}]}]}]}
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