爲了生存重寫軟件！面對“缺芯”，特斯拉很慌

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"北京時間 7 月 27 日消息，特斯拉汽車公佈了 2021 財年第二季度財報。財報發佈後，特斯拉 CEO 埃隆·馬斯克參加了隨後的財報電話會議，在電話會議上馬斯克表示，爲了應對芯片短缺造成的危機，特斯拉正在重寫其汽車軟件，以支持替代芯片。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“我們使用了替代芯片，然後花幾周時間編寫固件，”馬斯克說。“這不僅僅是更換芯片那麼簡單，還必須要重寫軟件。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"請求特斯拉：“開發慢一點，測試多一點”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"財報顯示，特斯拉在過去 3 個月交付汽車 20 多萬輛。2021 年二季度，特斯拉獲得營收 119 億美元，利潤 11 億美元。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"馬斯克稱，特斯拉未來的增長取決於全球半導體短缺是否能迅速解決。他說：“全球芯片短缺仍然會繼續，而且很嚴重。在今年餘下的時間裏，我們的增長取決於供應鏈中最緩慢的部分。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“我們最大的挑戰是供應鏈，尤其是微控制器芯片。從來沒有見過這樣的事情”，馬斯克說道。一位汽車行業專家給 InfoQ 解釋道，“這類芯片比傳統汽車的周邊芯片顯得更爲重要，屬於汽車上提供複雜功能的控制器部分，涉及到比如液晶儀表、大屏顯示，以及控制車鎖車燈等等。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"智能駕駛時代，軟件重要性大大增強，根據 IEEE 數據，高端車輛軟件代碼已經達到 1 億行。而特斯拉是“軟件定義汽車”的典型代表。在研發設計上，特斯拉歷年強度基本在 10% 以上，遠超傳統車企 5% 的平均水平。在智能化方面，特斯拉目前能超過大多數競爭對手。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"特斯拉沒有對這次“重寫”有過多的描述。但涉及到“安全”時，網友認爲給新芯片重寫固件並不是那麼簡單，“對於任何小型企業來說都是一項重大的努力，這就像從 PC 切換到 Mac”，“就像喬布斯讓 Mac 團隊在幾個月內重新編寫內核以在 PowerPC 上運行英特爾一樣”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"軟件開發通常都是一個漫長的過程，工作團隊需要花費數年時間開發新產品，按照特斯拉正常研發進度，平均 2-3 年推出一款新車型。汽車軟件開發的質量面臨的挑戰更爲艱鉅：新功能新需求的出現，沒有過多的經驗可以遵循；龐大的代碼量可能引入更多的缺陷；複雜場景組合與龐大代碼量使得測試驗證的充分性難以保證…"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對於特斯拉表示“花費幾周時間”完成軟件更改，"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/teslainvestorsclub\/comments\/osi90j\/tesla_rewrote_its_own_software_to_survive_the\/","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"網友表示"}]},{"type":"text","text":"有些不可思議：“一般情況下，其他廠商如果要做同樣的事情，起碼需要花 5 年時間進行規劃，2 年時間進行編碼，然後是長達 10 年的錯誤修復”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而更多網友則還是希望特斯拉能花費更多時間進行測試，認爲“快速研發、快速迭代”不適合汽車行業，畢竟智能汽車關乎人命。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/wechat\/images\/c7\/c76de3ceccd11581ee031fd636317dc5.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"缺芯影響衆多車企"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"芯片作爲電子電器的核心零部件，直接影響衆多行業發展，汽車產業缺芯也已經不是什麼祕密。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"去年底，據國內媒體報道，汽車企業由於芯片短缺開始陸續停產，停工潮有蔓延的趨勢。2020 最後一個月，從南北大衆開始，國內大部分的中高端以上汽車廠家，面臨停產風險。上汽大衆生產負責人透露：“12 月 4 日開始只能停產了。” 同時，一汽大衆從 12 月初起也將進入停產狀態。僅兩個大衆 12 月份的產量合起來就超過 20 萬輛。當時有知情人士透露：“全球芯片供應本身就緊張，加上最近東南亞芯片組裝工廠，因爲疫情停產了，直接影響到半導體芯片的供應。”特別是中高端領域芯片，此前華爲就曾在市場上大規模採購，而今全球都在搶資源，目前很難夠得到。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在今年 5 月份，全球第四大汽車製造商 Stellantis 表示，芯片短缺問題在過去一個季度中有持續惡化的趨勢。作爲菲亞特 - 克萊斯勒與標緻汽車製造商 PSA 合併建立的新企業，該公司首席財務官 Richard Palmer 認爲目前的態勢很可能延續至 2022 年。彭博社則報道稱，由於芯片供應短缺，部分汽車製造商不得不在產品中剔除某些高端功能。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"與此同時，日產公司就決定去除部分車型中的標配導航系統；而 RAM Trucks 也取消了 1500 輛皮卡上配備的防盲區“智能”後視鏡。RAM 公司發言人提到，“由於智能後視鏡所使用的電子元件供應受限，RAM 公司目前已經停止在所有 Tradesman、Bighorn、Rebel 以及 Laramie 車型上使用這款配件。”但 RAM 計劃在今年晚些時候供應恢復後重新上線這項功能。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據報道，擁有強大供應鏈的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/amp\/2021\/06\/30\/chip-shortage-causes-ford-to-cut-vehicle-production-at-several-plants.html","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"福特"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，其部分車型也得在 7 月份開始停產 2 周，而且“該公司今年早些時候表示，由於芯片問題，預計第二季度汽車產量將減少約 50%。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而戴姆勒和寶馬也於上週表示，缺芯導致企業部分組裝線被迫關閉，汽車產量減少幾萬輛。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Plurimi Investment Managers 公司 CIO Patrick Armstrong 在接受採訪時，曾表達出了非常悲觀的預期：“只要聽聽福特、寶馬、大衆的真實感受，就會意識到目前的汽車產能體系中出現了嚴重瓶頸，他們拿不到生產新車所需要的芯片。”他認爲這種情況或將持續 18 個月之久。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雖然同樣面對“缺芯”困境，但特斯拉業績數據極其亮眼。財報顯示，特斯拉在過去三個月交付超 20 萬輛汽車。2021 年第二季度，特斯拉營收高達 119 億美元，淨利潤 11 億美元，同比增長 998%，超出上一季度兩倍有餘。財報中披露，特斯拉的產能分佈中加州工廠年產 60 萬輛，上海工廠年產 45 萬輛，幾乎佔到全球產能目標的近半。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由於“零件短缺”，特斯拉位於加利福尼亞州弗裏蒙特的工廠今年 2 月份關閉了兩天。對於未來，馬斯克發出了不確定的聲音：“看起來情況確實在好轉，但實際情況很難預測。”該公司在第二季度報告中指出，“爲了應對持續的半導體短缺，我們的電氣和固件工程團隊仍在努力設計、開發和驗證 19 種新的控制器變體。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"更換芯片，是特斯拉不影響後續產能的一個手段，只是還不能確定是否足以解決目前的“缺芯”難題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"延伸閱讀："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2021\/7\/26\/22595060\/tesla-chip-shortage-software-rewriting-ev-processor","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2021\/7\/26\/22595060\/tesla-chip-shortage-software-rewriting-ev-processor"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/electricvehicles\/comments\/ospz88\/tesla_rewrote_its_own_software_to_survive_the\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/electricvehicles\/comments\/ospz88\/tesla_rewrote_its_own_software_to_survive_the\/"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}