AMD CEO演讲：芯片短缺、关税、GPU与更多核心

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"我们有幸与AMD公司CEO Lisa Su交流，探讨该公司的未来计划以及如何应对2021年即将到来的新挑战，本文中的满满干货相信不会令大家失望。例如，Su表示芯片供货短缺问题将持续到今年下半年，价格上涨是受到关税的影响，该公司在GPU业务方面有所进展，关于收购赛灵思的更多详情，以及AMD进一步增加计算核心的计划等等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD公司在整个2020年的表现可以用“无与伦比”四个字来形容：他们推出了采用Zen 3架构的Ryzen 5000台式机CPU系列新产品，继当初的Athlon 64之后重新从英特尔手中夺回了性能王者的桂冠；此外，该公司的Radeon 6000 GPU也使其在六年之后再次与英伟达的游戏GPU产品站在相同的竞技舞台之上。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD公司在笔记本电脑市场上同样取得长足进步，其Ryzen 4000便携式处理器推动该公司在笔记本电脑市场份额方面迎来历史最高点。我们预计，随着AMD方面Ryzen 5000便携式处理器的推出，这一势头还将进一步加速。当然，AMD的数据中心业务同样蓬勃发展，不断蚕食着英特尔的市场份额；最近刚刚上市的新一代微软Xbox Series X\/S以及索尼PS5也将在2021年大量使用AMD提供的处理核心。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"但面对2021年，AMD仍需要克服一系列挑战，甚至包括不少前所未有的新难题。下面，我们来看Lisa Su如何引领AMD解决这些问题，并积极把握住2021年的种种新机遇。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"芯片短缺问题亟待改善"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"2020年，面对史无前例的新冠疫情大爆发，人们纷纷转发居家办公，进而将PC市场的增长速度拉升到过去十年来的最高点。而尽管PC行业的市场需求达到历史新高，但中美贸易战与疫情本身的冲击搅乱了全球供应链，导致制造端难以保持正常运行。与其他企业一样，AMD也开始遭遇产品供应短缺问题，导致客户在过去几个月中始终无法顺利购买其CPU与GPU产品。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Lisa Su强调，“我们目前正在加强交货能力。游戏显卡与CPU的交易量开始持续增长，我们预计这种情况将持续到2021年，至少在今年上半年难以快速缓解。我们将继续向OEM合作伙伴及其他普通合作伙伴提供更多产品，借此增加整体供应量。我们非常理解消费者的实际需求，也在努力满足这一波市场需求。”Su还澄清道，该公司不会将OEM客户置于PC制造商之上。相反，他们希望通过加快供货速度平衡供需关系。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"她还提到，“这里我要再次澄清，特别是对关心并喜爱AMD产品的朋友们强调：我们完全理解目前的市场需求，我们知道大家希望买到更多Ryzen 5000与Radeon 6000显卡。我向大家保证，我们已经在整个供货渠道中做出努力，但最终效果还要过一段时间才能显现。未来的供货量一定会有所增加，今年第一季度乃至整个上半年虽然很难全面缓解，但我们抱有充分的信心，也希望将更多产品交付到用户手中。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD与英伟达在此次供货短缺当中受到的冲击似乎最大，部分原因在于双方各自推出了极为强大的全新芯片，由此刺激的需求高峰吞没了他们的供货能力。人们也因此开始质疑，这两家向来以无晶圆制造能力著称的芯片厂商是否在定位上存在问题。Su评论称，“我想解释的是，我们对于自身制造策略以及制造合作伙伴的表现非常满足。我认为这样的定位是我们的一大核心竞争优势。目前的供应链、特别是消费级PC产品供应紧张问题，实际上是整体需求环境变化带来的结果。从制造的角度来看，可能并不存在什么问题，一切的根源在于全球市场对于半导体产能的需求变了。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"过去几个月来，关于ABF基板短缺的报道多次出现。ABF基板是芯片制造中的一大核心商品，几乎影响到所有PC芯片。这种短缺已经影响到整个行业，甚至因芯片供应不足导致多家汽车制造商的制造工厂陷入停工。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Su指出，“大家或多或少都听到目前ABF基板供应短缺的消息，实际情况确实是这样。我认为，这同样是由于目前市场需求超出了全球整体产能所引发的结果。目前各方都在努力提升产能水平，AMD也着手进行了投资，但产能建设绝不可能一蹴而就。我认为整个行业都做出了积极的反应，着力提升制造设施容量。预计这一切将在2021年继续保持下去。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"当然，短缺问题也有可能影响到AMD今年推出其他产品的计划，包括微软Xbox Series X\/S以及索尼PS5。很明显，新一代游戏主机的上市带来前所未有的需求，同样加剧了全球芯片供应的短缺状况。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Su表示，“我们对新一代游戏主机感到非常期待。从索尼和微软那边，大家应该已经了解到新产品的预订规模与热烈的市场反响。但从我们的角度出发，大家肯定能体会到新硬件对于产能的需求。坦白讲，这两款游戏主机、再加上任天堂阵营，已经要占用数百万个计算单元。光是这些，就已经令芯片产业不堪重负了。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“至于经验教训，我们意识到市场需求比我们的预期要高得多，因此我们开始努力提高产能水平。但我们对目前的形势、特别是与索尼及微软的合作关系感到非常满意……这代表着更长远的运营周期，充分展示了我们半导体行业能够将多少前沿技术成果集成到游戏主机当中。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"中美贸易战与关税变动"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"芯片行业处于严重的供应短缺当中，而中美贸易战期间所公布的几项关键关税即将在今年年初到期。在此之前，已经有多家第三方显卡制造商（AIB）宣布涨价，但目前出现价格调整的主要是英伟达显卡，对AMD阵营几乎没有什么影响。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Su坦言关税问题确实影响很大，她表示“随着新一年的到来，关税政策也将有所变动。我们投入了大量时间和精力，确保自身拥有高度灵活的供应链。我也一直将供应体系视为关乎AMD公司命运的重大问题。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"在谈到在关税之外、单纯因供需失衡造成的价格上涨问题时，Su解释道："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“从更广泛的意义上，我一直在努力以更公平的角度让GPU的售价与建议价格保持一致。例如，我们在刚开始发布GPU时，就会推出自己的公版Radeon Graphics MBA，而后再逐步转向第三方显卡制造商。但在此期间，我们的MBA储备仍然存在，希望以这样的库存储备保证始终在amd.com网站上按建议售价提供产品，同时鼓励各合作伙伴维持住既定价格。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“当然，新冠疫情确实导致物流以及部分半成品的供应价格有所上涨，这确实会给价格带来一些波动。希望今年下半年整体经济环境能变得更正常一些，推动市场走向更为合理的状态。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"GPU开发进度"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD公司在GPU开发方面取得了巨大进步。不过最新发布的Cezanne Ryzen 5000便携式处理器使用的仍然是该公司的上代Vega图形单元，而非最新方案。这不禁令人们猜测AMD内部存在设计资源不足的问题。Su澄清道，这一决定更多是为了保证产品能够在正确的时机以正确的状态发布。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"她表示，“以Cezanne为例，当我们规划产品发布时机与发展路线图时，最重要的前提就是必须在2021年初开始生产并交付。考虑整个OEM周期，我们会在2021年上半年启动新的生产平台，确保为搭载新架构的产品提供充裕的空间。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“换句话说，我们有没有必要采用最新一代图形单元？这是个选择的问题。限制我们的并不是设计能力，而是应该以怎样的时机推出怎样的产品。有些人可能希望我们继续提供Renoir这款已经非常优秀的产品，但我们认为全尺寸的Zen 3市场需求更旺，所以会优先考虑推出Ryzen 5000系列。这就是选择。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"虽然Raja Koduri这位重量级领导者选择离去，但AMD公司仍然坚守着自己的竞争定位并不断奋力向前。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“首先强调一点，我为AMD公司的CPU工程团队感到自豪。Mark Papermaster、Mike Clark及其团队遵循野心勃勃的开发路线图并出色完成了工作。正因为这样，我们才掌握着极为出色的架构，并对Zen 3产品的表现感到兴奋不已。未来，我们的关注重点将集中在Zen 4乃至Zen 5身上，必须保证它们也具有同样的市场竞争力。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“在GPU方面，我对David Wang及其团队取得的成果同样非常满意。我们建立起长期发展路线图，包括制定五年计划以确定如何选择正确的方案组合。有时候，我们得冒点险才能在创新层面达成目标。但同时，我们也要求自己推出的产品具备良好的可预测性。这事说起来简单、做起来却非常困难。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“我们在CPU与GPU方面都拥有强大的团队，而且我们的野心远不止于此。很多朋友都关心AMD在GPU架构方面的进展。可以说，我对目前RDNA2在每瓦性能及整体性能方面取得的进展非常满意 ，也一直在关注RDNA3以及其它产品，希望借此保证我们能够继续在架构性能层面占据领先地位。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"2021年的目标与赛灵思"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"Su解释道，AMD公司在2021年设定了三大核心目标：提升客户的整体份额（特别是以企业及商业客户为主体的服务器市场）、建立起稳定的处理器供应链，并完成总值350亿美元的赛灵思收购案。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"AMD对赛灵思的收购无疑是其扩大自身业务范围及市场份额的重要一步。但也有不少人认为，这笔数额巨大的收购会干扰AMD的正常发展，特别是妨碍其产品开发计划的按时执行。Su解释道，该公司在保障开发进度方面已经拥有坚定的执行计划："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“我们将继续专注于贯彻开发目标。希望大家能理解，这永远是我们的「头号任务」。我们拥有一支才华横溢的管理团队，大家希望推动AMD在市场上占据更显著的领先地位。因此收购赛灵思无疑是个正确的决定。我完全有核心在保持AMD原有业务发展进程的同时，顺利接管赛灵思。现任赛灵思CEO Peng也将加入我们，确保收购案能够以无缝方式完成过渡。我们必须不断扩大自身规模，我们也有能力保证一切顺利推进。请大家对我们保持信心，我个人对此也始终深信不疑。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"更多核心"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"支持AMD公司在CPU市场上掀起颠覆浪潮的一大基本思路，就是不断完善现有技术储备。作为其中的直接体现，AMD公司不断增加自家处理器的核心数量，迫使英特尔亦步亦趋才能保持市场竞争力。不过，随着该公司最新一代Zen 3处理器的出现，增加核心的行动开始有所减缓——Zen 3的处理核心与上代产品完全相同。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"这就引发了新的疑问：考虑到现有系统的供电设计与散热能力，添加更多核心是否仍具有可行性？或者说，目前的软件负载是否有能力使用更多计算核心？Su强调，AMD公司未来将进一步增加核心数量："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“如果大家关注我们在Zen 2与Zen 3之间、在第二代与第三代EPYC、以及在Ryzen 4000与5000之间做出的提升，就会意识到我们一直努力提高单线程性能，同时改进延迟乃至系统的整体性能。只有这样，我们才能通过同样的处理技术实现更高的代际间性能提升。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#333333","name":"user"}}],"text":"“因此，在所有7纳米制程产品中，我们都能在不同指标上实现20%以上的性能增强。未来，我们还将进一步增加核心数量。处理器的核心上限甚至有可能突破64核大关，这一切都将随着我们对系统的扩展而逐步实现。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"原文链接："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/news\/lisa-su-ces-2021-interview","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/www.tomshardware.com\/news\/lisa-su-ces-2021-interview"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]}]}]}