Watson Health業務或被出售，IBM 的醫療夢爲何折戟？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IBM 折戟醫療。"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"傳IBM擬出售Watson Health業務"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據《華爾街日報》報道，IBM或將出售 IBM Watson Health業務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"華爾街日報援引知情人士稱，隨着公司新任CEO開始精簡公司規模，並在混合雲計算領域發力，IBM正在探索出售其 IBM Watson Health（沃森健康）業務的可能性。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"上述知情人士稱，IBM正在研究該部門的替代方案，其中包括出售給私募股權公司或行業參與者，或SPAC方式合併上市。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IBM Watson Health主要利用人工智能技術幫助醫院、保險公司和製藥商管理數據。旗下產品有Merge Healthcare，它可以分析X光照片和MRI；Phytel，可協助患者溝通；另一產品是Truven Health Analytics，它可以分析複雜的醫療數據。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IBM Watson Health年收入約爲10億美元，但目前尚未實現盈利。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IBM Watson Health “大潰敗”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Watson Health是近年來IBM最引人注目的計劃之一，也是該公司對醫療健康行業所下的一個大“賭注”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2011 年， IBM 的認知計算系統 Watson 在問答節目中首次擊敗了人類，斬獲冠軍。第二天，IBM 就宣佈了 Watson 新的職業方向：成爲一名人工智能醫生。隨後身價大漲的 Watson 逐漸成爲了 IBM乃至全球 AI 項目的代表。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IBM 首席執行官稱這是 IBM 的“登月計劃”，人們一直祈盼着 IBM 的人工智能徹底給醫學界帶來一場革命。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"爲了成功進行商業化，IBM 隨後開始了大舉宣傳。IBM 承諾，Watson 將在 18~24 個月內推出首個用於醫療保健的商業產品。2014 年，IBM 爲 Watson 開設了一個酷炫的智能演示廳。演示中，Watson 收集了一系列奇怪的病患症狀，並提出了一系列可能的診斷列表，它可以在幾秒鐘內就破解一樁棘手的案件。2017 年，IBM 首席執行官 Rometty 公開表示，它就是一種主流的技術，可以改變幾乎所有關於醫療保健的方方面面，並稱，人工智能將會迎來醫學界的“黃金時代”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這些宣傳確實起到了一定的作用，當時很多計算機科學和醫學專家都認爲人工智能具備改變醫療保健行業的潛力。Watson 已經和世界各地的不少知名醫院進行合作，在中國也進入了近百家醫院的診療系統。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這幾年，IBM斥資數十億美元收購了一系列與健康相關的公司。FactSet數據顯示，2015年，IBM爲收購Merge Healthcare支付了近10億美元，爲Phytel支付了2.3億美元。在2016年以26億美元的價格收購了Truven。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這些業務現在已成爲IBM Watson Health的一部分，IBM希望通過將它們合併來構建一個海量的患者數據存儲庫，並應用算法來挖掘其價值。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"儘管IBM爲發展健康業務做了很多投入，Watson Health在腫瘤學和基因組學等領域取得了一些成績。但最後的結果令人失望，Watson Health並沒有成功發展起來，部分原因是醫生不願採用人工智能。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2018 年 7 月，Watson 被爆出現致命 Bug，給有出血症狀的癌症病人開了容易導致出血的藥品，嚴重時可致患者死亡。2019 年 4 月，IBM 宣佈，由於市場表現不佳，基於 AI 技術的“新藥發現項目”停止開拓新客戶。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Waston 一度被人們形容爲“笑話”、“一個騙局”、“庸醫”。IBM Watson 推出的產品，也一點不像人們曾經設想的“超級醫生”，更像是僅能夠執行某些日常任務的小助手。一位醫生憤怒的說：“這玩意兒就像一坨屎！我們買 Watson 來，是因爲它的營銷搞的很厲害，讓我們覺得能靠它來實現一些願景。結果買來之後呢？它什麼都做不了！“"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Watson Health並沒有成爲IBM所設想的成爲核心業務，近幾年，該業務的關鍵管理人員也流失了不少。2018 年 5 月，Watson 傳出其醫療部門進行了大幅度裁員，規模佔總員工比例 50%至 70%，有傳聞說甚至達到了 80%，2018 年 10 月，IBM Watson Health 部門負責人 Deborah DiSanzo 宣佈離職。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自2011 年，IBM 將 Watson 引入醫療保健行業起，截止到2019年，IBM 已宣佈近 50 項合作計劃，旨在開發新的人工智能醫療工具，但遺憾的是，這些合作中的許多還沒有帶來商業產品，成功的案例還很少。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IBM 的失敗向技術專家和醫生們表明，打造一名人工智能醫生有多麼困難；而且它的失敗並非技術原因，更多的是因爲 IBM 強大的技術無法與當今混亂的保健醫療系統相兼容，機器學習的模式與醫生的工作方式無法匹配。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"機器學習的前景與醫療保健的現實，在“真正的人工智能”與當今醫生對功能性產品的要求之間，存在根本性的不匹配。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一切爲了發展雲計算"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IBM擬出售Watson Health業務，或是其戰略調整的又一大動作。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今年1月，有消息傳出，IBM 中國研究院（IBM CRL）已經對內宣佈要全面關閉，一時間引發業內熱烈討論。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對此，IBM 發表了一份聲明：“IBM 始終致力於滿足中國客戶的需求。爲了以最佳的方式支持中國客戶的人工智能和混合雲轉型之旅，幫助他們把握國家投資於新基建和數字經濟所帶來的歷史機遇，IBM 正在變革我們在中國的研發佈局。” 雖沒正面迴應，但這也被廣泛解讀爲是對 IBM CRL 全面關閉的默認。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此前，IBM表示將重點發展混合雲業務，退出一些無關的業務。去年，BM任命原雲計算和認知軟件部門的負責人接替Ginni Rometty成爲新任CEO。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"去年10月，爲加速雲計算和人工智能業務發展，IBM宣佈將拆分爲兩家上市企業，新的上市公司“NewCo”將以全球第一大託管基礎設施服務提供商的身份啓動，新公司預計擁有 9 萬名員工，繼續爲全球 115 個國家和地區的 4600 家客戶提供技術支持。而 IBM 則會將主要精力放在混合雲和人工智能市場。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IBM的信息技術服務部門人數約佔IBM銷售和員工總數的四分之一。但隨着客戶開始逐漸接受雲計算，該業務不斷萎縮，已拖累了IBM的收入增長。這是該公司史上最大規模的業務退出，足可見其發展雲計算的決心。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2019年，IBM以約330億美元的價格收購了Red Hat，這在當時被稱爲開源史上最大交易。IDC 公司高級副總裁兼首席分析師 Frank Gens 曾表示，通過收購紅帽公司，結合 IBM 方面對紅帽運營獨立性做出的承諾，相信 IBM 能夠在這一新興的混合、多雲世界中憑藉由開源貢獻的強大力量脫穎而出。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在雲計算領域，IBM面臨着來自勁敵微軟和亞馬遜的強大競爭，後者已經因爲雲計算業務估值均飆升了10倍以上。IBM認爲，這筆收購將成爲它在雲計算領域贏得競爭對手的重要機會。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"近幾年，IBM 大型服務器和軟硬件方面需求大量下滑已是不爭的事實。沒有及時跟進用戶需求、連續十個季度沒有出現收入同比增長，IBM 再次面臨轉型大考。不過作爲 IBM 最大的業務，雲計算和認知軟件的銷售額在2019年 Q4 下降了 4.5%，至 68 億美元。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"IBM 的轉型之路能否最終收穫成功還需要時間檢驗。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"參考文章："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/ibm-explores-sale-of-ibm-watson-health-11613696770?mod=hp_lista_pos1","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/ibm-explores-sale-of-ibm-watson-health-11613696770?mod=hp_lista_pos1"}],"marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/hD-Gro2emsz4vWPDqCI5","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"《探路者 IBM Watson“失敗”警示錄：爲什麼大家會給 AI 產品喝倒彩？》"}],"marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/qi6MQTvcBDG7bW2rerCs","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"《誰擠走了 IBM 們》"}],"marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}