青云科技投资人陈维广: 计算资源导向是过去式，应用导向才是云计算的未来

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"混合云的发展潜力再次被证实。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"那么在投资者看来，混合云是新“风口”吗？目前市场格局是怎样的？Cloud 2.0 将向哪些方向演变？… 为了回答上述问题，InfoQ 采访了蓝驰创投的管理合伙人，青云科技投资人陈维广。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/wechat\/images\/83\/83a5512ccd5a95513ab27bf4bad309e3.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"投资者眼中的云计算“风口”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“站在风口上，猪都能飞起来。”小米创始人雷军的这句话曾被无数创业者奉为经典。一时之间，追风口的人如过江之鲫，但乘风起势的却少之又少，是压根就没有风口，还是追错了风口呢？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何判断某个技术领域是否为“真风口”呢？作为 IT 领域资深的投资者，陈维广表示：“通常，风口具备三个关键要素。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"变化：赛道和行业不同，“变化”的定义也会有所不同。比较显著的是客户需求的变化和科技的变革。比如，从企业服务的角度来看，近十年最大的变化就是“云化”。应用层的变化，使得 IT 资源需要通过新的方式做更好的分配；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人才溢出：以云计算为例，今天，在中国做云计算的人才出自哪里呢？一部分是外企大厂，IBM、亚马逊、Oracle 等，另一部分是互联网大厂，做企业中台服务的人。如果这些人才一直不动，即使有变化也不会形成大风口。2008 年，大家都觉得美国有 AWS，中国的云计算也应该有机会，但中国在当时的人才供给非常缺，现在也远没有饱和；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"资本：资本是逐利的，也是滞后的，一定是根据变化、人才的供给来决定是否配置资金到“风口”。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"在陈维广看来，变化、人才溢出和资本形成了风口的最稳定三角关系。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“非公即私”不可取，混合云是“风口”吗？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"近日，IDC 发布了《中国公有云服务市场 (2020 上半年) 跟踪》报告，2020 上半年中国公有云服务整体市场规模 (IaaS\/PaaS\/SaaS) 达到 84 亿美元，同比增长 51%。其中 IaaS 市场同比增长 57.1%，PaaS 市场同比增长 64.4%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"公有云的整体市场规模在不断增加，但是逐渐暴露出了一些问题。比如成本激增、企业上云负担越来越重等。公有云的优势在于灵活、弹性，而私有云的优势在于合规、可控，通常企业会将稳态业务部署在私有云，将敏态业务托管在公有云。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但企业业务不能用简单粗暴的“非公即私”来选型，这时混合云的作用就体现出来了，例如节约成本、数据安全、提升商业和运营效率等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"首先，当业务规模扩大之后，混合云节约的成本规模也会增大，一年可能达到千万级、甚至是亿级。其次，如果企业将所有数据都存在非中立的公有云上，其实很难确保数据和商业运营的安全性和稳定性。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"那么混合云在投资者眼中是风口吗？陈维广表示："},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"“是，但并不像移动互联网或消费级市场那么快速聚焦的爆发，而是一个相对较宽的风口，需要更长时间慢慢沉淀价值到最后爆发。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"陈维广是这样说的，也是这样做的。2008 年陈维广刚从美国回来，决定要关注中国的云计算创新，“中国 2009 年才引入云计算概念，相比国外滞后了好几年，但企业不可能一直停留在传统的服务器 IT 架构上，对云计算一定是有需求的。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2012 年，陈维广与黄允松认识，当时青云科技还没有注册。但是仅仅经过了四、五个星期的尽调，蓝驰就决定投资。“除了看好云计算会成为下一个风口，我也被黄允松的‘真’打动了。”陈维广回忆当时见面的场景，“最初他给我看代码，说通过他的软件机器人，产品稳定性能够达到 99.99%，未来会比亚马逊做得更好，我是不太相信的，心里想他如果不是个天才就是个大骗子。但他一边一条条代码跟我展示，一边阐述他的云计算愿景，最终打动了我。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在这之后，蓝驰创投连续投资了青云科技 4 轮，陪伴青云科技超过 9 年。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"中国是一个比海外市场更有潜力和规模的混合云市场"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"根据 Synergy Research 的调查，全球公有云市场份额由主流供应商主导，前五大公有云厂商控制全球近八成市场。公有云市场马太效应强烈，市场格局基本已定，不少厂商都开始寻找新的机会点，例如头部的阿里云、腾讯云纷纷联合 VMware 等私有云厂商着手开拓混合云，而 IBM 通过收购红帽，开始主攻混合云市场。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"那么，混合云市场格局现在如何？混合云服务商的核心竞争力体现在哪里？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“我的观点是，目前混合云的市场格局也是基本确定的，新玩家突围有难度。”陈维广认为。当企业业务逐渐多元化、规模化之后，一朵公有云无法满足需求，采用多朵云来应对不同的应用场景和数据需求会成为常态。很多企业在选择私有云产品时，会要求和已有的公有云产品技术架构保持一致，这样在做混合云时才能高效的协调和调度计算资源，这个要素导致新玩家很难突围。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"与此同时，多云管理对用户来说很麻烦，比较好的解决方案是提供一套跨云管理以及跨云应用程序的调度和抽象层。陈维广认为，相较於单纯的 MSP（管理服务提供商），能很好的控制底层计算资源，还能提供一套跨云管理服务的云厂商更有优势。以青云 QingCloud 为例，有一致性架构的公有云和私有云能使部署和运营成本更可控。此外，青云 QingCloud 的混合云解决方案以 KubeSphere 容器平台构建分布式容器层，支持多云的资源利用；同时还有 iFCloud 统一多云管理平台和 OpenPitrix 多云应用管理平台。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不仅全球混合云市场还有很大空白，中国通信研究院数据也显示，2019 年中国企业采用混合云的比例仅为 9.8%，市场潜力更大。同时，中国市场还有自己的特殊性，以央企、国企、政府为主的大型客户对自主运维、数据安全的要求更高，更倾向于使用混合云；互联网、车联网等 IoT 设施的存量大，迭代增速快，对云服务和边缘计算有更大量的、更多元的需求。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"陈维广判断，这些因素都可能会催生一个比海外市场更有潜力和规模的混合云市场。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一方面，和以公有云为主的平台型云厂商（AWS、阿里云等）不同；在混合多云趋势下，无论 IBM、青云 QingCloud，未来的战略目标一定不只是在计算资源层，而是通过 PaaS 层（容器产品）提供更多应用层的服务。以青云 QingCloud 为例，客户一旦将 KubeSphere 部署在计算资源层上，他可以把应用运行在多朵云上而直接将底层资源层透明化了。在充分发挥混合云优势的同时，青云 QingCloud 还能像瑞士军刀一样，提供多元化的应用层工具。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"陈维广介绍，在青云科技的蓝图中，混合云已不再是传统概念里的“公有 + 私有”，也不局限于跨基础设施的混合，比如，“公 + 私 + 本地 IDC”；而是在已经建立的混合云统一技术架构的基础上，继续研发边缘计算和物联网技术，打造覆盖“云、网、边、端”一体的数字化平台。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Cloud 2.0：重新发明轮子"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果从发展进程来看，Cloud 1.0 的重点是虚拟化，那么 Cloud 2.0 的重点是容器、云原生和开源。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在陈维广看来，云计算未来的发展是阶段性的。第一阶段是以混合云为主的多云战略，第二阶段是从资源导向转为应用导向，第三阶段是应用的云化和开源。但这不是完全割裂的，而是相互交叠发展的。“云计算的未来一定是应用导向型的，这个应用不只是 SaaS，也可以是在 PaaS 层。同时，一定是结合开源和云原生的趋势。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但陈维广强调，现阶段真正的问题是，国内上云的历程还没有完全走完，还有很多企业的 IT 环境是跑在传统服务器上的。所以应用的云化趋势，要以企业云化的节奏为前提，只有越来越多企业开始用公有云、混合云，并且开始用到容器，应用层和云原生趋势下的机会才会显现。当然，这个节奏不会比国外慢，只是起步晚。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一个关键词是开源。“选择开源，生态就会有更多贡献者，未来才能成为标准，就能有更扎实的上下游生态，加速多元服务的渗透和增长。服务所带来的增长比底层计算资源更有生命力，这已经是被过去很多 IT\\CT 国际巨头反复验证过了的”，陈维广认为。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最近，大热的云原生被很多人理解为应用的云化，但在陈维广看来这样理解并不全面。“云原生的意义在于，任何开发者都可以至下而上的催生创新。”以青云 QingCloud 旗下容器平台 KubeSphere 为例，容器是开源的，所有人都可以参与在它之上开发应用和工具。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"彩蛋环节：投资云计算企业会考察什么？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"陈维广：“蓝驰关注所有能在云上重做一遍的应用的机会，包括 PaaS 和 SaaS。这在投资布局中，可以是横纵两条线。“"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"PaaS 是横线。重点考察一个 PaaS 工具是否能够跨云，是否能帮助开发者提升效能，更考验创始团队的技术能力。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"SaaS 是纵线。要垂直到各个具体行业中去。“在国内做 SaaS 一定要和行业紧密接合，比如针对医疗、工业等具体的场景来做，能切入具体场景和交易环节的。“陈维广表示。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在投资阶段上，蓝驰关注早期，以 Pre A 到 A 轮为主。“我们不关心别人投了什么，会独立做出判断，产品 + 技术 + 商业模式如何构成三角，中间是什么样的创始人和企业基因。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"以青云 QingCloud 为例。阿里云是 2009 年开始对外提供服务的。在青云科技创业前后的很多年里，是属于公有云的 1.0 时代。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"巨头围城圈地，小公司都刚起步，资源有限必须聚焦。青云 QingCloud 全面布局公私统一架构的混合云，需要大量投入不被看好。但蓝驰还是投了。黄允松和他的团队有企业服务基因，创业的第一天起就以金融大客户为主，比行业内大多数人都更早看清楚趋势，看重混合云。当然，技术也很过硬。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“当时与我们对趋势判断类似，敢尝试在云计算创业的很少，”陈维广介绍，“少数人走的路，除了成功，更可能发生的是失败，因为对底层技术的能力和投入要求太高了。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“青云科技创业九年，经历很多槛。从成立团队、拿到蓝驰的第一轮投资开始，先要搞定金融行业的标杆客户。之后，在巨头猎场上，他们要继续融到新钱去支持研发和获客、用私有云策略应付价格战、死磕 PaaS 层、迎战混合云。现在，正经历第五个增长曲线，布道传统客户、触达增量市场、铺设全国的渠道网络”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“这样的压力下，仍选择以终为始，做困难但有意义的事，我们一定会支持！”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}