走向機器智能時代：移動機器人的困局與創新

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"編者按：本文來自微信公衆號","attrs":{}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kjsSpjLGoPOaF3Rniy_VMw","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“晨山資本”（ID:chenshancapital）","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2008年，機器人WALL-E一舉成了最受歡迎的機器偶像。作爲一名履帶式地球垃圾分裝員，它獨自在末世廢土工作了數百年，而且對超長工時和危險作業環境都毫無怨言。在現實場景中，移動機器人也正在越來越多地代替人類從事繁重、重複或者危險、惡劣環境下的工作，幫助人類減輕勞動強度、節約成本、提升幸福感。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動機器人，是近年來行業滿懷期待的發展方向，但熱捧背後也存在叫好不叫座、價格戰激烈、強銷售輕技術等現實困局。本文嘗試探討以下幾個問題：移動機器人行業如何突破當前困局，創業公司有哪些潛在創新機遇，以及未來可行的商業模式。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作者 | 辛若豪 晨山資本投資經理","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"郵箱 | [email protected]","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"核心觀點","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":null,"normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"業界對移動機器人的發展前景滿懷期待，但實際落地速度仍不及預期，陷入了叫好不叫座的困境。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"面向未來，移動機器人公司存在3條潛在創新路徑：移動能力的持續提升；從單點智能走向全局智能；移動+執行能力的融合，有望幫助移動機器人突破現有的市場天花板。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":3,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"伴隨着技術提升，未來移動機器人的商業模式也會發生深遠的變革。客戶可能購買的不是簡單的產品，而是面向場景的整體解決方案或者能力模塊。","attrs":{}}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/84/8414a233dad6747004850710e627b3b7.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動機器人困局：叫好不叫座、競爭激烈、強銷售輕技術","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動機器人，是智能機器人領域發展的重要分支。在移動能力發展初期，爲了滿足工業和物流領域大量且繁重的物料搬運和週轉的需求，移動機器人以軌道牽引、磁條導航等多種方式，有效發揮了固定場景、固定軌跡的基礎移動能力。伴隨SLAM技術的逐步成熟，機器人得以在半開放場景、靈活軌跡下實現移動，以AMR、無人叉車爲代表的新一代移動機器人開始登上舞臺，並開始在物流、商業服務等更多場景中實現落地應用。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這些年來，行業對移動機器人的發展滿懷期待，巨大潛在市場空間也陸續吸引了大量參與者入局。但現實是移動機器人在各場景的出貨量還沒有迎來井噴式爆發，也沒有公司真正在行業內佔據顯著領先地位。目前移動機器人領域呈現出叫好不叫座、同質化價格戰和強銷售輕技術的困局。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動機器人創新路徑","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動機器人的前景是光明的，但通過怎樣的路徑才能突破當前的困局？這是衆多創業公司和創業者都在思考和探索的關鍵問題。我們認爲有三個潛在的創新路徑。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1. 移動能力的持續提升和突破","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對於任何種類的機器人來說，能夠實現大規模應用的前提一定是顯著的價值創造和效率提升。這體現在機器人比人類在工作效率（同樣工作比人做得更快更持久）、工作能力（更好的力量速度精度），或是工作耐受性（做危害人健康的工作）等多方面的優勢。 ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對移動機器人來說，上述理論同樣適用，但主要的瓶頸是智能化水平。目前移動機器人的智能化水平可以相比自動駕駛框架下L3 - L3.5的級別。如果能夠結合現有的技術水平，找到最合適的落地場景，充分體現機器人方案的效率優勢，商業成功可能就達成了50%。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在酒店、醫院、餐飲爲代表的商業服務領域，移動機器人能力和需求已經有了較好的結合。但在環境更復雜、節拍要求更高的場景中，機器人的智能水平尚不能滿足產業實際需求。比如在物流、工業場景中，人的工作效率仍然顯著高於移動機器人。爲了滿足工廠的實際裝卸貨需求，我們經常能夠看到叉車工人在物流倉庫裏施展高速過彎、漂移的神奇操作，而機器人的智能化水平尚不能與工人的熟練操作相媲美。有限的價值創造，也使客戶很難爲目前的移動機器人產品慷慨買單，這造成了工業客戶從試點、小批量到大批量應用機器人的漫長商業週期。 ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"行業應用的落地，要從技術+產品能力（供給）和產業挑戰+成本結構（需求）兩方面來綜合考量。我們相信伴隨技術能力的提升和人力成本結構的演進，在不遠的未來，移動機器人有機會在工業等更多複雜、高性能場景中落地。創業公司不應該只把精力集中在短期的市場競爭上，而應該放眼長遠，尋找能提高移動機器人智能化能力的技術研發和創新，這包括感知以及決策（VSLAM、語義識別）等方面。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/c9/c9913ac4203165491e187913f816ac02.gif","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"‍▲ 更復雜的場景中，機器人不僅需要實現移動功能，更需要“理解”場景，凸顯出語義識別的價值","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在提升移動能力之外，移動機器人的形態也需要持續演進。目前移動機器人主流採用的輪式形態，未必是實現移動能力通用化的最優形態。以波士頓動力爲代表的雙足/多足方案，雖然在技術發展上尚處於較早期，但對室外配送、安防巡檢等複雜環境而言，會有更好的適應性。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/54/5447dd3da06daee6a9f6802213f6344d.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/83/839f65a7d6b49c82a626afc1d3b1c33a.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"▲ 上圖：自主移動機器人；下圖：波士頓動力的四足Spot和雙足Atlas","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2. 從單點智能到全局智能","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在很多場景中，移動機器人是生產/業務流程中重要的組成部分。這意味着，移動機器人在確保實現自身移動能力的前提下，需要配合實際生產環境的業務邏輯和工藝，爲客戶實際關注的生產效率和服務質量等核心指標帶來直接貢獻。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對工廠來說，智能工廠的定義不僅僅侷限於物流自動化這一個範疇。半導體和PCB領域是很好的代表——作爲離散生產中最接近流程的行業，半導體在設備自動化和工廠信息化領域，已顯著領先於其他離散行業。某頭部客戶把工廠智能化的定義拆分成以下幾個維度：","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"物流自動化水平","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"生產效率提升","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"產品良率提升","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"輔助智能決策能力","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在半導體生產流程中，通過人或者移動機器人完成物料的及時轉送是最基本的要求。如何能夠有效配合/協調各道工序之間的生產節拍，避免呆料和設備排隊等行爲的發生，是顯著提高生產效率甚至良率的關鍵。這就對機器人廠商提出了更高的要求。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"長遠來看，工業生產和交付模式都將發生深遠的變革。在服裝、零售、電子等行業中，小批次、多批量型的需求變革，將推動工廠改變現有的生產和協作模式，使其變得更靈活、更柔性。這也將驅動工廠更多地利用軟件的能力，實現更加實時高效的排產排程，優化物料週轉和生產邏輯，進而不斷提高生產效率和品質。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在這樣的生產作業環境中，移動機器人的硬件僅是完成物料週轉的搬運器械。新一代創業公司爭取的是成爲未來工業生產環境中的“現場大腦”，深度結合客戶業務的工藝和生產邏輯，貫通MES、WMS、WCS等多套系統，進而實現全局、全週期的智能調度能力。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在工業之外，我們相信在商業服務領域也會誕生同樣的機遇。不遠的未來，機器智能有望打通酒店、餐飲的業務全流程，成爲不同場景中的智慧運營方。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3. 執行和移動能力深度融合，創造更大價值","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"行業中存在一種觀點：客戶的投資回報週期(Return on Investment)長，導致移動機器人無法實現大規模部署。如果能降低機器人的採購和部署成本，縮短投資回報週期，客戶就會有更大的驅動力去嘗試或使用機器人方案。 ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我們認爲，應該從降低成本和提高產出兩個方面來嘗試縮短客戶的投資回報週期。如何讓機器人在場景中扮演更重要的角色，替代更多傳統人工，創造更大價值/產出，纔是技術創新者更應關注的方向。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"目前的移動機器人形態在工業和物流場景中只能完成簡單的搬運和週轉工作，而且受限於行駛速度，機器人只替代了50%-60%的工人職責。從客戶角度來說，價值創造有限或許是阻礙採購的更重要因素。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在未來的作業場景中，機器人有望同時完成移動（腳）和執行（手）的操作，實現複合機器人的形態。複合機器人的概念並非新穎，但距離真正成熟仍然需要時間。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"目前比較常見的做法是由機器人廠商採購各部分獨立生產的產品，然後DIY組裝和二次開發。這種集成模式使複合機器人的成本很難控制，也導致了複合機器人的結構較爲複雜。各個子單位的控制器相互獨立，很難作爲一個整體進行控制，限制了機器人控制和功能的靈活性和拓展性。未來，我們相信複合機器人的移動和執行能力有望實現深度融合，實現1+1>2的效果。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/76/760cf83c8010bf1bb0ca97c0c7487e5c.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"▲ 複合機器人目前的常見形態；未來複合機器人的終極形態，仍然是未知數","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"面向未來的商業模式","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"產品","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動機器人能力的不足，導致目前的創業公司在交付－實施－維護上花費了大量精力。伴隨機器人智能化水平的完善，未來的移動機器人不管是在工業還是商業服務場景中，都有機會做到完整的產品化，讓客戶感受開機即用、落地即走、持久可靠的消費級體驗。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"服務","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在上述的第二種路徑中，軟硬結合的工廠大腦或服務中樞，有望成爲完美替代某種職能或者場景的載體。未來的客戶不是爲簡單的機器人產品買單，而是爲更高效的智能工業和商業能力買單，這纔是真正意義上的Robot as a Service。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"開發民主化","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"目前的機器人的應用開發生態是相對封閉的。當機器人進入更加廣泛的商業、生活場景中，會出現非常豐富、多元的應用場景和需求。因此，機器人應用開發的模式，需要向IT領域看齊——通過標準化、開放化的方式，降低開發門檻，讓更多人能夠參與到應用設計和開發的過程中。在機器人開發公民化的未來格局下，檢測、抓取、移動等通用化能力，有望成爲未來開發環境中核心軟件和能力模塊，讓開發者能夠像調用API般快速配置、隨時調用。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在我們的願景中，智能機器人終將滲透到生活的方方面面——從生產製造到商業服務，最終走進千家萬戶的生活。移動的能力，將是實現這個願景的重要組成部分。移動機器人領域的創業公司需要在不同的發展路徑間取捨，探索出最適合自己的航海圖，藉此抵達機器智能的彼岸。這需要創業者的堅持，更需要對發展路徑和願景的堅定決心。晨山資本希望能夠陪伴有相同願景的團隊，共同推動機器智能時代儘快到來。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":">>>晨山資本成立於2016年，是寬帶資本生態中專注早期創新的投資平臺。晨山資本重點投資於“數據驅動的產業互聯網”主題的創新企業。晨山創始團隊深耕科技創新行業投資十餘年，歷史投資組合包括美團點評(03690.HK)、朗新科技(300682)、分衆傳媒(002027)、亞信科技(01675.HK)、海光信息、元年科技、亞信安全、同盾科技、塗鴉智能(TUYA)、零氪科技等衆多行業領先的創新企業。","attrs":{}}]}]}