放心，人工智能不会很快夺走你的编程饭碗

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"以前，我曾担心人工智能会夺走我的工作，让我失业。毫无疑问，每年有关人工智能的恐惧散播的言论越来越多。但是我写代码的时间越长，对机器学习的了解越多，我就越不担心这个问题。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最近，OpenAI 和微软（拥有 GitHub）发布了"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/copilot.github.com\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Copilot"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，这是一个由人工智能驱动的结对编程“程序员”。尽管它给人们留下了深刻的印象，但是我们离能够自己编写代码的人工智能还很遥远。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"然而，这并不意味着没有短期影响。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Sam Altman 曾经发过一条"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sama\/status\/1404100794245214215","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"推文"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，说："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"预测：人工智能将使在电脑前进行的工作的价格比现实世界中发生的工作的价格下降得更快。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"和大多数人 （包括我）的期望相反，这会产生奇怪的效果。"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"对我们来说，幸运的是，软件工程并不只是在电脑前打字。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"大多数写人工智能的人都没有写过代码"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"假如你编写了一些中等复杂的软件，开发者已过时的说法很快就会不攻自破。你知道“编写代码”对开发者来说并非真正的工作。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"要说“软件工程师的工作就是编写代码”，就像说“作家的工作就是写几个段落”一样。尽管这是事实，但却忽略了一点：不是任何作家都能够写出《权利的游戏》这样的作品。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"编写代码是最简单的部分。针对规模设计、满足客户需求和处理现有设计约束非常复杂。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"现在，软件开发者是架构师、工程师和码农。但是当我们走向未来，我想我们将会看到前者更多，后者更少。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"繁重的工作正在消失"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"像 Copilot 这样由人工智能驱动的编码工具在做什么呢？智能生成样板代码。它们取消了我们价值最低的任务。例如编写循环数据的代码，创建单元测试，以及在 Stack Overflow 上寻找答案。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"身为开发者，我们管理的是精力，而非时间。每个游离的想法和谷歌搜索都会耗费一些精力。优秀的开发者希望通过研究具有挑战性的问题，而不是写简单的代码来获取高额回报。Copilot 可以帮他们做到这一点。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"对于大多数开发者来说，这是好消息。除非你整天都在写 CRUD 应用程序……"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由于低价值任务日益枯竭，开发者变得更像技术项目经理，我认为我们将在下一个十年中看到转型。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"代码价值将降低"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"正确生成的代码可以让有能力的开发者用更短的时间来构建更多的技术。这一价值的大部分将由公司获得。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"软件工程师的薪水不会降低，工作也不会增加。他们只是用更少的时间来完成更多的工作。当软件开发成本下降时，需求会增加。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在经济学中，当技术进步提高了使用资源的效率（减少任何一种使用所需的数量）时，Jevons 悖论（有时是 Jevons 效应）就会发生，但资源消耗的速度上升是因为需求增加。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"——"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Jevons_paradox","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Jevons 悖论"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，维基百科"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我们可以看到，很多公司都会使用相同的资源来解决更多的问题，或者出现了更多的技术公司。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"降低成本带来新机会"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"你现在也许可以建立那些以前过于耗时或昂贵的副业项目了。假如建造某样东西所需的时间较短，那么边际效益低的项目现在就变得可行了。以前过于昂贵的机会现在可以寻求了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"也许你想开发一个聚合一些数据的简单应用。只是由于金钱奖励太低，不值得花 40 个小时来开发。但现在开发这一应用只需 20 个小时，你也许需要重新考虑一下。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"对公司来说也是如此。在他们现在所做的事情之外，他们不可能寻求更低价值的机会。作为一个企业家和程序员，我喜欢这一点。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人工智能驱动的编码在未来可能带来一些风险"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"现在，Copilot 生成了样板代码。它比你现有的代码编辑器更加智能。但是它不会给任何人带来风险。也就是说，我们必须假设工具会继续改进。这样的话，我们可以想象未来会出现以下问题。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"高级开发人才输送的枯竭"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我们都是新手，曾经只能编写 CRUD 应用程序。但是当我们不再需要人来编写这些简单的应用时会发生什么呢？如何让新开发者学到足够的知识，提升价值链？"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"只有最优秀的开发者才能获得收益"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"无论哪种职业，前 1% 的收入都高于其他人。只要顶尖的开发者能完成 10 倍的工作，就有可能减少对中等技能开发者的需求。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"无代码工具将使软件变成黑盒子"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果我们不写代码了，又怎么能理解人工智能编写的代码？我们是否习惯于使用我们不了解的技术？在某些时候，作为一个行业和社会，我们可能会面临这些长期问题。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最后的想法"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这是我不担心人工智能剥夺我工作的最大原因。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"假如人工智能能够编写软件，那就完蛋了。大家都被淘汰了，不只是开发者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Simon de la Rouviere 曾在"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/twitter.com\/simondlr\/status\/1044605498727780355","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"推特"}]},{"type":"text","text":"上转发了一篇文章《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/forge.medium.com\/yuval-noah-harari-21-lessons-21st-century-what-kids-need-to-learn-now-to-succeed-in-2050-1b72a3fb4bcf#---0-349","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在 2050 年，要想成功，孩子们需要学习什么"}]},{"type":"text","text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"What Kids Need to Learn to Succeed in 2050"},{"type":"text","text":"）："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Naval 对此推文"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/twitter.com\/naval\/status\/1044622979974410240","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"回复"}]},{"type":"text","text":"道：（在 2050 年）“人工智能能够比人类更好地编写软件”，这就像说一个人工智能可以写小说，创造艺术，以及比人类更好的思考能力。一种能够开发出更好的软件的人工智能，是能够管理世界的人工智能，它使整篇文章变得毫无意义。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"尽管媒体进行了大肆炒作，但我们也不必担心人工智能会剥夺你的编程工作。编程主要是一种创造性的职业。而就目前的情况来看，神经网络根本不可能有新的想法。另外，软件工程师是解决问题的人，而且我认为问题没有尽头。所以，尽管技术上的失业是不可避免的，但这并不会持续太久。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"作者介绍："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Chris The Data Guy，全栈开发者，数据科学家。熟悉 Ruby、Python、React、AWS 等。对加密货币和经济感兴趣。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文链接："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/artificial-intelligence-is-not-taking-your-coding-job-anytime-soon-5bf0df677ee8"}]}]}