微軟借雲重振中國市場希望渺茫
Microsoft is staging a comeback in China. The world's biggest software maker hopes to use the twin technological disruptions of cloud computing and mobile devices to get a second bite of a market where profit has proved elusive. Yet the financial benefits may be no easier to grasp the second time round.
微軟公司（Microsoft）正準備在中國市場上捲土重來。儘管要在這個市場上掙錢一直讓人煞費苦心，但這家全球最大的軟件巨頭還是希望憑藉在雲計算和移動設備上的兩大技術突破，再分一杯羹。不過這次要想再掙上一筆可能就沒那麼容易了。
Microsoft is due to launch Windows Azure, its cloud computing platform, in China in June, in partnership with local company 21ViaNet. Under the agreement, 21ViaNet would collect client revenues and pass a percentage on to Microsoft. China restricts foreign companies' ability to offer "value added telecoms" services, leading most to partner with local players.
微軟將於6月在中國正式推出雲平臺Windows Azure，這是它與世紀互聯公司（21ViaNet）合作的結晶。按照雙方協議，世紀互聯將從客戶身上賺取收益，再按一定比例分給微軟。由於中國嚴格限制外國公司提供“增值電信”服務，導致多數外企只得與本地公司建立合作關係。
The software giant plans to hire thousands of new employees in China for the launch and for the roll-out of smartphones, chief executive Steve Ballmer said last week. Microsoft currently has a workforce in the country of around 4, 000.
上週，微軟首席執行官斯蒂夫•鮑爾默稱，爲了推出這個平臺和智能手機，微軟將在中國新招上千名員工。目前微軟在中國的員工總數約爲四千人。
China has been a piracy trap for Microsoft: many use its products, but few pay.
中國一直是微軟的盜版重災區，很多人都在使用微軟的產品，但很少有人掏錢。
Founder Bill Gates famously argued that he would rather see Chinese users steal his products than someone else's, and they took him at his word. In 2011 Ballmer complained that Microsoft (MSFT) generates less revenue in China than in the Netherlands -- though that will have changed since Microsoft started charging smartphone makers like ZTE patent fees. According to the Business Software Alliance, 77% of software by value was pirated in 2011, based on an estimated illegal software market worth $9 billion.
微軟創始人比爾•蓋茨曾經發表過一個有名的高見：寧可看到中國用戶偷用他的產品，也不願讓其他人染指，結果中國用戶真的欣然照辦。2011年鮑爾默曾抱怨稱，微軟在中國的收入甚至還不及荷蘭——不過自從微軟開始向中興通訊（ZTE）這類智能手機廠商徵收專利費後，這種局面就有所改觀了。據商業軟件聯盟（Business Software Alliance）稱，按價格估算，2011年有77%的軟件遭到盜版，而據估計，非法軟件市場的市值高達90億美元。
Cloud and mobile services may provide an antidote. Windows Azure, the company's cloud computing platform, is set to launch in June, and the hope is that piracy will be less of a problem in the cloud, where companies and developers store data and software on third-party servers rather than local PCs. In mobile, operating systems tend to be pre-installed by handset manufacturers, which creates tighter control over who's using what.
雲和移動服務可能會是破解這個難題的良藥。Windows Azure是企業的雲計算平臺，將於六月正式推出。雲可讓企業和開發者在第三方服務器、而不是本地PC上存儲數據和軟件，由此盜版將不再像現在這樣嚴重。而在移動領域，手機廠商將預裝操作系統，將強化對使用對象及使用內容的控制。
Yet competition is fierce. Alibaba, which already handles over 80% of online commerce, has high hopes for its own cloud computing service. While revenues from "public cloud" services are set to grow to $3.8 billion by 2020, according to Forrester, that's still less than half the Business Software Alliance's estimate of the Chinese market for illegal software. As for mobile, the industry is dominated by versions of Google's Android operating system.
不過微軟仍面臨激烈競爭。已擁有中國電子商務市場80%份額的阿里巴巴公司（Alibaba）極有希望推出自己的雲計算服務。儘管據弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester）稱，到2020年，“公有云”服務的收入將達到38億美元，但這個數字卻還不到商業軟件聯盟所預估的中國盜版軟件市場總值的一半。而在移動領域，谷歌公司（Google）的Android操作系統早已佔據主導地位。
Microsoft may also escape the piracy trap only to fall into a political one. Foreigners aren't allowed to offer "value-added telecoms" by themselves, so Microsoft must share its cloud revenue with a local partner. Since cloud computing features in the Chinese government's current five-year plan, the market is likely to develop in ways that favour local players. That makes Microsoft's chances of turning China into a big source of revenue look pretty nebulous.
微軟也許能躲過盜版這個陷阱，但卻未必能擺脫政治上的麻煩。外企是不允許自行提供“增值電信”服務的，所以微軟必須與一家本地企業分享雲服務收入。由於雲計算在中國政府的“十二五”計劃中佔有重要位置，因此這個市場很可能會靠照顧本國企業發展起來。因此，微軟想把中國市場變成重要收入來源的希望顯得很渺茫。