Gartner預測：2010年IT9大趨勢
預測一：到2012年，20%的商業公司將不再擁有IT資產
市場涵義：
儘管對計算硬件的需求不會消失，但IT資產的實際擁有權將發生變化，這將引起IT硬件工業的反響。
—例如，企業的IT預算要麼減少，要麼—在更開明的組織—重新分配到更具戰略性的項目上。特別是IT員工以及硬件專家將面臨下崗，或者需要再培訓來滿足其它需求。下崗的硬件專家發現自己追逐的是一個夕陽產業。
IT硬件將出現的新的購買者，如雲服務提供商，垂直應用的增值零售商（VAR），服務器維護組織以及最終用戶的PC、筆記本和手持通訊設備，爲迎接這些挑戰，硬件分銷商不得不脫胎換骨。這意味着硬件OEM銷售戰略必須適應新買主的需求。
服務器對企業的銷售佔比將減小。
無任何附加條件的純粹的裸機銷售將增加。
對傳統的企業客戶，交鑰匙方案將越來越重要。
PC銷售將轉向最終客戶、個人買家。僱員採購可能是來自客戶個人投資或僱主的補貼計劃。
預測二：到2012年，在領先的雲計算市場中，印度的IT服務公司將佔到20%份額。
市場涵義：
隨着雲計算破土而出，組織需要評估他們的潛力。市場的這一改變將幫助CIO們和商業單位的領袖們理解和分辨：雲服務供應商、IT服務、軟件和基礎設施組件。
很多印度的供應商，已經利用“透明性”來建立西方購買者的信心。這樣一來，如果印度的提供商在開發雲服務方面扮演穩固的角色，CIO們和商業單位的領袖將在更大程度上擁抱這一“透明性”。
印度供應商的研發部門，將在基於雲方案的方向上努力，這些雲方案來自各種類型的IT提供商，這樣會創造更多的選擇和更多的市場競爭。隨着時間的推移，這將引發更深層次、更高質量的產品。這些新的產品，又將加快從傳統到產業的轉換，加快實用工具和基於雲服務的增長。
購買者—商業單位的採購團隊和IT組織—將被迫從那些只簡單交付競爭性的部分，分離出獨特的、真正驅動競爭優勢的商業流程領域。那些能夠適當地在企業內部精選的領域裏，採用新的實用工具和基於雲的產品的組織—擁有很強的風險管理技能—將在業界獲得重要的優勢。
預測三：Facebook將變成社交網絡集成和Web社交化的軸心
市場涵義
Facebook上活躍的用戶數—已經是最大的社交網絡社區—到2010年將達到10億。15000餘網絡站點、設備和應用程序已用於實現Facebook Connect API和協議。這些互操作將成爲Facebook成功和其它社交網絡、溝通渠道和媒體站點生存的關鍵。
簡單說，Facebook對於商戶來說過於龐大，商戶們無法將之納入到他們的B2C策略中。對於廣告、交流、市場宣傳和客戶支持，Facebook的潛力是巨大的。也就是說，Facebook現象存在兩個方面，組織應該認真跟蹤。這些包括：
—隱私問題，在與其它站點和網絡集成中Facebook扮演的角色不斷加重的過程中，這是唯一的絆腳石。
—可能存在來自遠東的具有破壞性的影響，特別是中國的QQ，假如中國政府允許Facebook在開放的市場上競爭的話，QQ有可能超過Facebook。即使這不太可能發生，但它留下一個可能性，Gartner在2010年將密切注視着。
預測四：到2014年，大多數IT商業案例將包含低碳成本
市場涵義：
將碳成本計入商業案例將有助於向企業提供節能措施，也爲有助於組織準備好接受增加的碳影響審查。
節約能源不說，二氧化碳排放和氣候變化之間的因果關係，已經廣泛地被髮達經濟體的政客和主流媒體所接受。所以，懲罰二氧化碳排放公司的政策陸續出臺，每排放10噸二氧化碳的罰金範圍跨度很大，可從10美元到50美元不等。考慮碳排放分析讓企業管理者能更好地理解政策變化對業務帶來的影響。
從實踐上講，碳成本是能源成本的一部分，需要將排放因子（每千瓦時的碳排放量）和碳處理投入的成本相加。所以更新數據表格只是小菜一碟。碳問題是全球性的，我們期待大多數組織2014年之前將碳成本計入IT業務。
預測五：2010年，用戶購買新PC的第一次開機前，整個溫室氣體已排放了60%。
市場涵義：
由於PC生產的複雜性，一臺PC消耗的能源的80%發生在生產和運輸途中。
PC升級可以推遲購買新PC，PC升級早已被提出來作爲減少環境影響的有效戰略。
在理想情況下，PC更模塊化、更強壯，它們可以升級以延長壽命。由於顯而易見的慾望，工業界沒有將升級作爲其戰略。隨着二氧化碳排放量的增加，PC製造商和供應商面臨着交付更模塊化、可升級的PC的壓力。
製造商、供應商和PC用戶如何對不斷增長的趨勢作出反應，是Gartner來年繼續研究的焦點。
預測六：互聯網市場將在2015年之前被管制，在世界範圍內控制互聯網市場上多於2500億美元的花費。
市場涵義：
互聯網消費者所蘊藏的能量不可小視。最終市場商人將濫用互聯網渠道，折騰客戶，以達到理髮機構管制互聯網活動的目的。結果會是：
—以互聯網爲主作爲市場宣傳的公司會發現他們自己不能有效地向客戶開展市場活動，他們處於競爭劣勢地位。
—以互聯網廣告生產爲主的供應商會發現自己面對一個萎縮的市場，因爲客戶慢慢轉移到其它渠道上去。
Gartner將密切監視和評估這一趨勢，並向廣告商和互聯網上做生意的商戶提供策略，幫助他們延遲或避免這一心頭之患。
預測七：到2014年，30多億成人將在手機和互聯網上交易。
市場涵義
徹底改變世界貿易經濟的兩個趨勢正在湧現：
—在新興經濟體裏，移動和互聯網技術的採用正在迅速崛起。
—移動支付、移動商務和移動銀行的到來
兩個趨勢聯合，將爲佔世界人口相當比例的人們開啓電子交易的途徑。對這些剛剛從新興經濟體解放出來的人們，會發送短消息（SMS）、電子郵件和支付帳號，就意味着他們能夠通向這個約一萬億美元的全球市場。
對於可口可樂和加樂福這樣的全球性商行，他們的能力將得到延伸，能夠和這個星球上的絕大部分人達成交易。
象eBay、淘寶、和Craigslist，C2C交易將擁有巨大的機會。
對於移動運營商、互聯網公司和金融機構來說，供應能力和資金轉移能力方面存在一個巨大的新市場。
2010年全年，Gartner將跟蹤和分析這些聯鎖趨勢的複雜關係。
預測八：到2015年，上下文之於移動消費者服務和消費者關係，就象現在的搜索引擎之於Web一樣。
市場涵義：
上下文敏感計算將顛覆性地影響商業—特別是對零售商、金融服務、媒體、衛生保健和電訊企業。
在上下文業務模型中佔據最有利地形的是上下文提供商。我們認爲Google、 Nokia、Apple、Microsoft和通信服務提供商這樣的企業成爲這一領域的服務、平臺和解決方案的領頭羊。
聯盟將成爲關鍵。因爲很多組織只擁有技術和商業基礎的一部分，沒有一個供應商擁有全部。
例如，網絡運營商和社交網絡之間的聯盟—前者可以提供位置和計費，後者帶來客戶、開發團隊和一些軟件工具—可產生強大的競爭優勢。
預測九：到2013年，手機將取代PC，成爲最常用的上網工具。
根據Gartner的估計：
l 2012年PC總數達到16.2億，儘管有些沒有連上互聯網，但均具備上網能力。
l 到2012年，職能手機和裝備瀏覽器的手機總數將超過16.9億部。2012年之後，這一數字將超過PC。
不過，在2012年大多數用戶仍使用PC作爲主要的上網工具，手機是次要的上網工具。然而，隨着智能手機全球遍地開花，2015年將取代PC成爲最常用的主要的上網設備。
這一變化意味着，很多網站要重新調整格式或重建。移動設備用戶點擊會更少，網站如果不爲手機小屏幕做優化的話，將面臨很多風險，如用戶數和交易量減少。
下面這些公司對這個市場障礙特別關注：
l 地處沒有普及PC的地方
l 擁有直接面對消費者的網站
l 被教育機構和政府部門使用的信息門戶
在線零售商、銀行和金融服務提供商面臨的風險最大。
Gartner Top End User Predictions for 2010:
Coping with the New Balance of Power
Summary Report
By 2012, 20% of businesses will own no IT assets
Market Implications:
While the need for computing hardware will not go away, the shift of actual ownership of it will reverberate throughout every facet of the IT hardware industry.
— For example, enterprise IT budgets either will shrink or—in more enlightened organizations—be re-allocated to more strategic projects. IT staffers, and hardware specialists in particular, will face layoffs or will need to be retrained to meet other requirements. Laid-off hardware specialists find themselves chasing a declining job pool.
Hardware distribution will have to change radically to meet the requirements of the new IT hardware buying points such as cloud services providers, vertical application value-added retailers (VARs), server farm maintenance organizations as well as end users for PCs, notebooks and handheld communications devices. This, in turn, will mean that hardware OEM sales strategies must adapt to meet the requirements of the new buyers.
Enterprise sales of servers will become a shrinking part of overall share.
Low-margin, bare metal sales will increase.
Turn-key solutions will become increasingly important for traditional enterprise customers.
PC sales will shift toward end-user, personal buyers. The employee purchases may be out-of-pocket from consumer channels or from employer-subsidized plans.
By 2012, India-centric IT service companies will represent 20% of the leading cloud aggregators in the market (through cloud service offerings).
Market Implications:
As cloud computing continues to emerge as a disruptive force, organizations will want to assess its potential for their organizations. This change in the market will help CIOs and business unit heads understand and delineate the vendors, IT services, software and infrastructure components.
Many Indian vendors have used transparency as a way to build the confidence of Western buyers in foreign IT service providers. Thus, if India-centric providers play a substantial role in developing cloud service offerings, CIOs and business unit leaders will embrace this transparency to an even greater extent.
The R&D efforts of Indian vendors will speed development of cloud-based solutions from all types of IT providers, which will create more choice and more competition in the market. Over time, it will result in deeper, higher-quality offerings. These new offerings, in turn, will accelerate the transition from traditional to industrial offerings and the growth of utility and cloud-based services.
Buyers—business unit teams and IT organizations—will be forced to separate unique business process areas that truly drive competitive advantage from those that simply deliver competitive parity. Organizations that can appropriately adopt newer utility and cloud-based offerings in select areas of their enterprises—with a heavy dose of strong risk management skills—will gain an important advantage within their industries.
By 2012, Facebook will become the hub for social networks integration and Web socialization.
Market Implications:
The number of active users on Facebook—already the largest social network community—is expected to rocket to more than a billion by the end of 2010. More than 15,000 websites, devices and applications have implemented the Facebook Connect APIs and protocols to interface with Facebook. This interoperability will become critical to the success and survival of other social networks, communication channels and media sites.
Facebook is simply too big for firms not to factor it into their B2C strategies. Its potential for advertising, communication, marketing and client support is huge. That said, there are two aspects of the Facebook phenomenon that organization should track carefully. They include:
— Privacy issues, which will only get thornier as Facebook’s role in integration with other websites and networks increases.
— The possible disruptive influence from the Far East, speciically QQ in China, which could outstrip Facebook should the Chinese government allow it to compete on the open market. While this is an unlikely scenario, it remains a possibility and will be tracked closely by Gartner throughout 2010.
By 2014, most IT business cases will include carbon remediation costs.
Market Implications:
Incorporating carbon costs into business cases will help provide organizations with a measure of savings, as well as help prepare organizations for increased scrutiny of their carbon impact.
Energy savings aside, the link between carbon dioxide (C02) emissions and climate change is widely accepted by politicians and mainstream media in developed economies. Therefore, policies are emerging that will penalize companies for CO2 emissions. These penalties could easily range of between $10 and $50 per ton of CO2 emitted. Incorporating carbon analysis gives a manager the ability to better understand the impact of policy changes on the business.
In practical terms, carbon costs shadow energy costs, requiring the addition of an emissions factor (carbon emissions per kWh) and a projected cost of carbon remediation. Therefore, updating the spreadsheets is a moderately simple task. As carbon emissions are a global issue, we expect most organizations to include carbon costs in IT business cases by 2014.
In 2012, 60% of a new PC’s total life greenhouse gas emissions will have occurred before the user first turns the machine on.
Market Implications:
Due to the complex nature of PC production, 80% of the energy a PC consumes during its lifetime occurs during production and transport.
PC upgrading, which can delay the need to purchase new PCs, has long been suggested as an effective strategy for reducing the environmental impact.
In an environmentally ideal world, PCs would be more modular and robust, allowing them to be upgraded to extend life. Due to the obvious implications on demand, the industry has not pursued upgrading as a strategy. As usage-related CO2 emissions grow, PC manufacturers and vendors can expect pressure to deliver more modular, upgradable PCs.
How manufacturers, vendors and PC users will need to respond to this growing trend will be a focus of Gartner research during the coming year.
Internet marketing will be regulated by 2015, controlling more than $250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide.
Market Implications:
The potential backlash from consumers on Internet marketing cannot be underestimated. Eventually marketers WILL abuse the Internet channel and annoy customers enough to generate an outcry strong enough to push legislation regulating Internet marketing activity. Consequences will include:
— That companies focusing primarily on the Internet for marketing purposes could find themselves unable to market effectively to customers, putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage.
— Vendors that focus solely or predominately on producing Internet marketing could find themselves faced with a declining market, as companies shift marketing funds to other channels to compensate.
Gartner will monitor and evaluate trends in this arena closely and offer strategies for both advertisers and Internet marketing firms that can help delay or avoid the pitfalls that lie ahead.
By 2014, more than three billion of the world’s adult population will be able to transact electronically via mobile and Internet technology.
Market Implications:
Two trends are merging that will drastically alter the future of the world’s trading economy:
— The rapid rise of mobile and Internet technology adoption in emerging economies.
— Advances in mobile payment, commerce and banking.
Together they will open the way for a significant portion of the world’s adult population to transact electronically. For many of these newly enfranchised consumers from emerging economies, the ability to use short message service (SMS), e-mail or payment accounts will constitute their first and only access to the estimated $1 trillion global economy.
For global firms such as Coca Cola and Carrefour, it will provide electronic reach and the ability to transact with a significant majority of adults on the planet.
For entities such as eBay, TaoBao or Craigslist, it will open a huge opportunity for consumer-to-consumer transactions.
For mobile operators, Internet companies and financial institutions, it will open vast new markets for the provision of transactional and funds transfer capabilities.
Gartner will track and analyze the intricacies of these interlocking trends throughout 2010.
By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and relationships as search engines are to the Web.
Market Implications:
Context-aware computing will have a transformation, disruptive effect on business—particularly for retailers, financial services, media, healthcare, and telecom firms.
The most powerful position in the context business model will be the context provider. We expect firms like Google, Nokia, Apple, Microsoft, and communication service providers to lead the way in creating these services, platforms and business ecosystems.
Alliances will be key, since many organizations have part of the technical or commercial foundations for context, but no vendor as yet has them all.
— For example, an alliance between a network operator and a social network—where the former could provide location and billing and the latter brings customers, developers and some software tools—could yield a strong competitive position
—
By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide.
According to Gartner estimates:
l The total number of PCs in use will reach 1.62 billion units in 2012, all of which are capable of Internet access, even if some are not connected.
l By 2012, the combined installed base of smartphones and browser-equipped enhanced phones will exceed 1.69 billion units. From 2012 onwards, this combined installed base will be greater than the installed base for PCs.
Nevertheless, most users in 2012 will use a PC as their primary Web access device and their phone as a secondary access device. However, as use of smartphones spreads globally, they will overtake the PC as the most common primary device for Web access sometime in 2015.
This shift means that many websites will need to be reformatted or rebuilt. Mobile device users typically make many fewer “clicks” on a website than PC users, and websites not optimized for smaller screen formats will risk reduced customer interaction and fewer transactions.
This market barrier will be of particularly concern to:
l Organizations in geographies where the PC is not as prevalent.
l Organizations with consumer-facing websites.
l Informational portals used by educational institutions and the government sector
Online retailers, banks and inancial service providers will be the most exposed to this risk.