存储产业反转的一年：从抢库存到消化库存

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在信息产业时代，计算和存储密不可分。存储器是半导体行业的三大支柱产业之一，DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）和NAND（闪存）是其中市场容量较大的细分领域。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今年是特殊的一年，疫情影响着各行各业，对于存储产业来说，也是具有历史意义的一年。日前SK海力士对英特尔NAND闪存及存储业务的收购案，打开了NAND Flash产业整并序幕。另一方面，今年国产存储芯片实现从0到1，国际存储市场迎来了中国玩家。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一系列变化下，存储产业的发展走向备受关注。集邦咨询研究副总经理郭祚荣在日前举办的一场存储峰会上表示，全球内存产业发展在疫情之下变得诡谲多变——"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"今年上半年受到疫情影响，客户端因拉高库水位让内存价格一路攀升，下半年还是因为疫情，部分内存需求减弱导致价格下滑。因此，今年整体市场还是供过于求。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"展望明年，内存产出量预计从今年14.3%增长到17.6%，原厂在疫情下的投资趋于保守，产能与工艺转进都未见大幅扩张。但是，需求端的产品内存规格依然往上提升，明年供需上有机会"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"从今年的供过于求转为供需平衡甚至供不应求。"},{"type":"text","text":"集邦咨询预估，明年内存价格将有机会在上半年止跌反弹，下半年恢复到上涨的格局走势。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"细分存储应用市场，主要有智能手机、PC和服务器市场。而全球内存需求的增长还是主要依赖于智能手机和服务器领域的增长，不过从今年来看，服务器的增长较为突出。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"目前内存在服务器部分的市场份额在逐渐逼近移动式内存，预计2020年达到34%，接下来每年将会增长20%到30%，未来3到5年将会反超成为内存主导。郭祚荣进一步指出，在智能手机没有新杀手级应用的情况下，移动式内存的需求就不会那么强劲，而是开始面临成长瓶颈期，成长幅度会趋缓。"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"以后笔记本、智能手机的效能可能都不是最重要的，这些也许都只是显示的工具，运算、分析都在往云端走。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"集邦咨询预测，2021年针对移动设备的内存仍然会保持16.7%的增长，但是在整个内存供应当中的占比将轻微下滑至39.7%。这主要是由于目前"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"单部智能手机的内存容量已经达到了较高水平"},{"type":"text","text":"，比如高端旗舰手机内存容量已经上到了8~16GB，遇到现阶段的“天花板”，目前手机端也没有需要比16GB更高内存容量支持的应用出现。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另外，后疫情时代也进一步拉动了数据中心建设等在内的云端商机。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"集邦咨询资深分析师刘家豪表示，5G商用后将赋予数据中心活化的因子，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"带动微型数据中心与边缘运算成长，并成为2021至2025年的产业发展主线"},{"type":"text","text":"；"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"物联网与车联网等应用场景落地，也提升了对服务器的需求。"},{"type":"text","text":"其中，数据中心的落实成为近年DRAM需求的主要推手，全年占DRAM市场五成以上的消耗量与三成以上的出货量。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"刘家豪举例道，2020年受疫情影响，大部分企业采取开源节流的方式。他们放弃了很多服务器的采买，而转向云服务器的采购。而云服务商也提供了更为弹性的服务，这些服务针对终端客户不同的需求进行调整，终端客户不需要再买服务器回去，而是采用租赁的方式，用多少量付多少钱，或者是按月付费。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在新生活常态的改变方面，近几年短视频是市场上最火的平台，以中国区新崛起的短视频公司为例，字节跳动的服务器也开始转向台湾ODM，这块市场也有很大的发展。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外，资料自主权也是影响因素。受到地缘政治不确定性影响，各个国家对资料落地的掌控要求越来越大，比如谷歌今年在亚太区和欧盟区建设的数据中心越来越多，这也是应欧盟的GDPR（《通用数据保护条例》）的要求，资料必须留在欧盟境内，预计会带来中小规模的数据中心的建设，这一趋势需求将持续到2025年。"}]}]}