國際酒店用戶服務能力提升（三）

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"本文承接"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzA3NDcyMTQyNQ==&mid=2649265706&idx=1&sn=2d364ca7ae6fc12ebb656fc2cd50a59a&chksm=876747d4b010cec230c54707f407f371c4e7302991404a702e1e96b3ec33d54cf9da9a140ed7&scene=21#wechat_redirect","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《國際酒店用戶服務能力提升（一）》"}]},{"type":"text","text":"、"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzA3NDcyMTQyNQ==&mid=2649265715&idx=1&sn=32788079c1ac763a1f5e8eb389be8037&chksm=876747cdb010cedbff01912e72827b2ed94a1224533224b09aaf82d52585aa19cef4a86b597b&scene=21#wechat_redirect","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《國際酒店用戶服務能力提升（二）》"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。前兩篇文章中主要說了售前服務，本篇會重點說下售後服務相關業務和改進。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3. 售後體驗"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3.1 售後服務"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"售前用戶體驗對於用戶來說是從瀏覽開始一直到支付完成用戶購買流程的順暢體驗，而售後體驗相對的是用戶從購買完成一直到成功入住（離店）的體驗了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"1、售後環節"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從用戶購買完成到成功入住的過程中，存在多個環節："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":1,"normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"確認中（confirming）：用戶下單支付後，需要代理商確認訂單的環節。代理商會向它的貨源（酒店\/更上層的代理商）確認酒店商品的價格和庫存，由於國際業務存在時差等原因這個環節是存在較長的確認時間的（1min 到 12h 不等）。在 confirming 環節中可能存在如下情況："}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":1,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"用戶本身可能會取消訂單，這種情況是用戶主動觸發雖然其中也會存在一些業務問題但是和缺陷無關這裏不做討論；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":1,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"代理商也可能會拒單，拒單原因可能是庫存原因無法提供房型產品也可能是由於價格上漲不能以原有價格進行售賣；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":1,"number":3,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"爲保障用戶的超時確認系統拒單。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"已確認（confirmed）：用戶的訂單被代理商確認的環節，即代理商側確認交易成功用戶可以入住，對於用戶來說是等待入住的狀態。這個時候對於用戶需要根據產品的退改條件進行變更，代理商在有特殊情況時也可以進行拒單。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":3,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"到店（check-in）：用戶入住到店環節。如果在 OTA 平臺進行過酒店商品的預定，應該會體驗過在入住酒店時，酒店的服務人員會向用戶索要入住憑證並檢查入住憑證是否無誤，確認後酒店服務人員安排房間，用戶入住。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":1,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"到店無預定，很多時候是因爲用戶下單後較短時間內抵達酒店入住，代理商還沒有完成向酒店下單，當然也存在代理商紕漏導致沒有向酒店下單的情況；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":1,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"到店無房，由於酒店（或代理商）存在超售的情況，即同一酒店房型售賣量超過了原有庫存，可能會給用戶升級房型入住或者告知用戶客房已滿無法入住。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":4,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"離店（check-out）：用戶完成入住離開酒店的環節，一些售後評價以及返現等都是在離店後完成。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"2、售後客服"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"並且在售後場景中，用戶還有很多其他訴求並且會在 APP 中進行線上諮詢或者電話進線到客服溝通。例如："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（1）用戶想要重新郵件發送入住憑證（操作類）"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（2）用戶想要確認售賣（已經下單的）酒店房型的基本信息（諮詢類）"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（3）用戶到店後發現無預定或者無房（投訴類）"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3.2 指標定義"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"爲了衡量用戶在售後環節的實際體驗，定義瞭如下兩個口徑：缺陷率、SPO。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"1、缺陷率"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"確認前拒單（confirming 環節）、確認後推翻（confirmed 環節）、到店無預定和到店無房（check-in 環節）與整體量做比率，再根據售後行業內的的客服專家衡量出的係數做加權，得到了加權缺陷率。從一定程度上，加權缺陷率反饋了在售後環節中我們存在問題的一個情況。其中，加權係數會以季度（年）爲單位由客服專家根據用戶的實際反饋情況（對用戶的傷害情況）進行更新。如下圖所示，是某一時間段內國際酒店的售後缺陷率情況。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/86\/25\/86017f43f01e920da8ff0e0d6daf5925.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"100%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"2、SPO"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"SPO 的全稱是 Service Per Order，即每個訂單對應的服務量。"},{"type":"text","text":"其中服務由電話申請人工量（p"},{"type":"text","text":"hone）和在線服務問題量（chat）兩部分構成。"},{"type":"text","text":"如果說缺陷率是反饋我們自身問題的指標，那麼 SPO 就是最直接反饋用戶體驗的指標。"},{"type":"text","text":"如下圖所示，是某一時間段內國際酒店的"},{"type":"text","text":"售後 SPO 情況。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/71\/1f\/711e95b47acc73efbaaa444d5e560f1f.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"100%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3.3 指標提升"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"1、降低缺陷率"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"缺陷率指標中，確認後推翻是無法干預的，能干預的只有確認前和到店環節，而確認前拒單是指標比重較大的一環，我們優先集中精力解決這一環節。由於代理商天然存在差異，各個代理商的拒單情況也是不同的，所以整體的思路在於對代理商的服務質量進行管控，扶持更高質量（缺陷率更低）的代理商，將訂單流量向高質量代理商傾斜，自然可以帶動整體的拒單率降低。這裏面我們重點做了幾件事："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（1）代理商管控：單個訂單拒單後會在一段時間內禁售對應的代理商酒店商品；對代理商維度拒單嚴重的代理商進行懲罰，進行全量禁售即一段時間內不允許代理商在平臺售賣產品；對缺陷率不好的代理商，在對客賠付等方面追加賠款；對於產單不多但是對整體缺陷影響較大的代理商，線下溝通一起協作降低確認前拒單率。並且在產品方面，在對代理商的平臺上，羅列出代理商的缺陷情況、管控情況、對代理商收益的影響，使代理商能及時感知自身的缺陷情況並及時處理。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（2）流量置換：在用戶訂單被拒單時，我們在用戶無感知的情況下更換到質量更高的代理商的同類產品上，替代用戶完成下單。換單模式存在多種，涉及的業務也比較複雜，這裏不一一贅述。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（3）平臺補貼：爲用戶更換訂單時爲了讓用戶能成功入住到心怡的產品房型，會額外進行補貼價格。例如：原單被拒單並且拒單原因爲價格上漲，那麼系統會爲用戶重新生成訂單並由平臺補貼差價。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從問題分析、case by case 的排查、策略制定以及實施花費了近兩個月的時間。期間我們改動了訂單交易系統、禁售系統、售後供應鏈系統、代理商平臺系統。當然，結果也是理想的，確認前拒單缺陷下降了 60%。而後的重點放在瞭解決到店缺陷率。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"到店缺陷和確認前缺陷一個重要的差異點在於，這部分更依賴於代理商而不是平臺的干預，所以這部分的改進我們的策略是通過運營手段干預。我們協調了部分運營的資源支持，對於存在到店風險的訂單，由運營同事給代理商和酒店確認入住憑證的確認號（酒店入住的預定唯一標識）是否已經生成並且有效以及酒店是否有足夠的房源能安排用戶按照訂單入住。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"其實國際酒店業務相較於機票、國內酒店業務有一個很大的不同就在於上面提到的，有很多環節是非標準化的，可以理解成沒有一套標準化的流程（接口）來解決訴求，這部分訴求無法通過系統直接實現。而非標準化的工作往往只能通過人工介入的方式來解決。對於客服人員來說，會形成一套標準的處理流程 SOP（Standard Operating Procedure），並在客服系統中呈現出來。而爲了解決類似的訴求，我們也需要對運營構建一個系統來管理和解決用戶的訴求。爲此，我們搭建了衆包系統來解決上面的問題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"衆包系統的能力職責如下："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（1）事件接入能力：所有的衆包任務需要有外界訴求觸發，在衆包系統中這一部分有用戶、系統等多種不同的事件用來解決不同的訴求；"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（2）任務分配和調度能力：將衆包任務合理調度分配給不同處理該任務資質的運營人員，做到人效的最大化利用；"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（3）任務處理和反饋能力：包含運營外呼用戶代理商酒店能力（接入電信運營商坐席電話）、運營標準處理流程（SOP）、對用戶展示過程和結果信息的能力（結果回填同步到訂單）等；"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（4）統計分析能力：包含郵件、報表、運營人員的人效統計分析能力等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一個衆包任務的基本主流程如下圖所示："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/c1\/5f\/c1d815b5b69b69bc7bee6724b64e995f.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"100%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"2、降低 SPO"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"SPO 主要問題在諮詢類上，經過產品同事的分析，這些問題主要原因在於訂單詳情頁的展示和用戶訴求不相匹配。在系列文章的開篇中有提到，國際酒店業務是從國內酒店業務中拆分而出，由於國內酒店業務佔比更重，訂單詳情頁的設計遵循了國內業務的訴求，而國際酒店用戶的訴求在訂單詳情頁面上沒有很好的體現。我們對於國際酒店的訂單詳情頁從頁面的展示到系統代碼進行了一次較大的重構。從指標方面，後續諮詢類 SPO 降低了 60%。從技術方面，我們將原來分散在 4 個系統的代碼整合並收口並精簡了邏輯；從接口來看訂單詳情頁的響應報文縮減50%，優化後接口的響應時間從 2s 以上降低到 80ms。上文提到了，國際業務很多用戶訴求是非標準化的。而擁有了衆包系統，其實很多 SPO 的問題也迎刃而解。通過衆包任務解決了很大一部分用戶的諮詢類、操作類訴求。在一些衆包任務場景中用戶在 APP 中點擊按鈕，後臺就會生成衆包任務由運營同事解決用戶訴求，實現了非標準化流程的 APP 交互。從體驗上也較呼入客服進線和線上 chat 溝通更好。整體來看，後續整體 SPO 指標降了約 40%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3.4 到店缺陷預測"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對於重運營的業務，研發角色一個重要的作用在於賦能和提效，而衆包系統恰恰就是一個重運營的業務。我們在解決到店缺陷率時，會有運營人員人工對於可能存在風險的訂單進行提前確認。那麼如何衡量可能存在的風險訂單是哪些呢？這裏主要是當日或第二日入住的訂單。但是就當日入住的訂單的體量如果交給運營也是無法完全確認的，所以必須要縮小風險範圍，將運營的資源用在最核心最容易發生到店缺陷的訂單上。爲了提前發現風險訂單，我們嘗試使用模型進行預測可能存在風險的國際酒店訂單。這裏參考借鑑了公司、業內的其他業務以及論文。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"1、特徵分析"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我們根據業務，收集了大量可能對風險有影響的因素。經過初步的篩選，整理出了以下幾個維度的特徵："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（1）訂單的基本信息 如：酒店房型、星級、價格；代理商；國家；有無確認號等"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（2）統計信息 A. 反應酒店、城市、代理商服務能力的指標 B. 反應酒店、城市、代理商庫存緊張程度的指標 C. 反應酒店、城市、代理商到店缺陷情況的指標"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"（3）時間信息 確認時長；提前入住天數；入住日期和預定日期日期差；入住最早 check-in 時間和確認時間差；入住時間日期週期特徵；節假日因素等"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"2、模型選擇"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"因爲到店缺陷對用戶的傷害是較大的，所以存在到店問題時基本上用戶都會通過客服進行投訴，所以在客服系統中有客服對於訂單問題的原因判斷，即天然的存在對訂單的標籤標註該訂單是存在到店缺陷。所以我們採用了有監督的決策樹模型來進行到店缺陷風險單的預測。這裏使用了 LightGBM 模型。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"簡單介紹下 LightGBM 模型：LigthGBM 是 boosting 集合模型中的新進成員，由微軟提供，它和 XGBoost 一樣是對 GBDT 的高效實現，原理上它和 GBDT 及 XGBoost 類似，都採用損失函數的負梯度作爲當前決策樹的殘差近似值，去擬合新的決策樹。LightGBM 在很多方面會比 XGBoost 表現的更爲優秀。它有以下優勢："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"更快的訓練效率"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"低內存使用"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"更高的準確率"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"支持並行化學習"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"可處理大規模數據"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"支持直接使用 category 特徵"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從下圖實驗數據可以看出，LightGBM 比 XGBoost 快將近10倍，內存佔用率大約爲 XGBoost 的 1\/6，並且準確率也有提升。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/bc\/2a\/bc30cdcb496e8f8dee265c31946yy82a.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"100%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"3、效果"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由於正負樣本是不平衡的，即風險樣本僅佔非風險樣本極小的一部分，所以對於特徵數據我們做了過採樣（OverSample）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"測試集上的效果如下： 準確率 0.93 精準率（微平均） 0.93 精準率（宏平均） 0.54 召回率（微平均） 0.93 召回率（宏平均） 0.67 f1 0.95 roc 0.67"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從結果上看，運營每天最大的確認能力爲 150 單，通過模型預測爲風險的訂單交給運營來進行確認，平均可以命中 9.4 單風險訂單。雖然看上去命中數量不多，但是較原有的大海撈針方式進行確認命中率已經有了較大的提升。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3.5 疫情突發"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2020 年初疫情的爆發，對國際酒店業務的打擊無須贅述。但是國際酒店用戶服務團隊以及其他團隊和部門都在堅持不懈盡己所能站在用戶的角度保障用戶的訴求。由於國際業務受打擊最大，退改量激增，並且隨着不同國家的政策等用戶的行爲和訴求也不停在變化。我所在的用戶服務團隊，很多同事年夜飯都沒有喫，過年期間基本每天都是加班到深夜處理退票以及其他服務問題，保障用戶順利完成退票。在此表示對這一年期間以及疫情期間團隊成員以及國際酒店其他團隊同事的大力支持的感謝！相信隨着疫情的好轉，國際酒店業務會越來越好！"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4. 總結經驗"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最後，分享下項目過程中的一些心得："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":1,"normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"要理解業務和前人的邏輯和設計是爲什麼服務的才能更好的開發出貼合業務的系統；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"業務的落地重點在於膽大心細、勇於試錯、快速迭代。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/09\/e2\/095dec5aa6ab39ccbc358c5c6651b5e2.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"100%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1、攜程專利：Ota平臺到店無房的預測方法及系統 （"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/patentimages.storage.googleapis.com\/cf\/a0\/29\/bbc97ae761a5d4\/CN107506877A.pdf","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/patentimages.storage.googleapis.com\/cf\/a0\/29\/bbc97ae761a5d4\/CN107506877A.pdf"}]},{"type":"text","text":"）"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2、論文：預測房間取消達到減少不確定性因素同時提升收益 （"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/310504011_Predicting_Hotel_Booking_Cancellation_to_Decrease_Uncertainty_and_Increase_Revenue","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/310504011_Predicting_Hotel_Booking_Cancellation_to_Decrease_Uncertainty_and_Increase_Revenue"}]},{"type":"text","text":"）"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"horizontalrule"},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"頭圖"},{"type":"text","text":"：Unsplash"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"作者"},{"type":"text","text":"：張楚宸"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文"},{"type":"text","text":"："},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/zuMpDjT0TZlZ2PAoLxjKbw","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"國際酒店用戶服務能力提升（三）"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"來源"},{"type":"text","text":"：Qunar技術沙龍 - 微信公衆號 [ID：QunarTL]"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"轉載"},{"type":"text","text":"：著作權歸作者所有。商業轉載請聯繫作者獲得授權，非商業轉載請註明出處。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}