被接连封杀后，出海的“TikTok们”还在坚持什么？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“中国的互联网应用基本都是中国本土，挣中国人自己的钱，没有去挣全球的钱。”在特朗普试图封杀TikTok之后，华为消费者业务总裁余承东曾在2020年8月7日的一场行业峰会上发表看法，他表示TikTok是中国少数具有全球化决心的互联网公司，绝大部份的互联网公司都只是躺在中国的安乐窝里。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“中国有14亿人口，但是全球有70亿人口，我们还没有挣14亿人口之外的那几十亿人口的钱、为他们提供服务，所以我们的差距还非常大。”但有观点认为余承东此番话很“扎心”——因为出海榜样TikTok遭遇"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/IvqlWpyTcArUoyl8DDmK","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"卖身"}]},{"type":"text","text":"危机，华为亦身陷"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/VPJFTyuXxkOYC7004QX5","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"险境"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，印度当局也在"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/vs2bZO4cYbKpFccM2QiH","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"遏制"}]},{"type":"text","text":"中国出海企业，在这样的形势下，全球化何以为继？中国科技公司能怎么去“挣全球的钱”？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"据印度媒体1月26日报道，印度政府将永久封禁包括微信在内的59款中国App，这批App早在去年6月就被下过禁令，但印度当局最初并没有彻底将路堵死，而是要求它们回答政府的一连串质疑，包括数据收集和处理方法、数据安全及隐私等。如今，印方对这些App给出的答复并不满意，因此决定将禁令永久化。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"打击接连而来"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“纷乱复杂、捉摸不定才是正常的国际商业环境。外面真实的世界就是这个样子，妖魔鬼怪一直都在。发生在华为、TikTok身上的事情，已经在很多国际化公司多次重演。”APUS创始人兼CEO李涛如是说。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2020年6月以来，印度接连“封杀”中国App。当年6月，政府信息技术部宣布，以 “有损印度主权和完整、印度国防、国家安全和公共秩序”为由，禁用59款来自中国的应用，包括抖音海外版TikTok、微信、微博、百度地图、UC浏览器、快手海外版Kwai、QQ等。7月，印度再禁47个App，大多与前面被封禁的59个应用程序有不同程度的关联。9月，印度对中国App的封杀名单再添118个。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"前后三轮下来，已有超过200个中国App遭印度当局下架，其中不乏《绝地求生》手游（PUBG MOBILE LITE）、企业微信、支付宝等出海头部应用。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在9月份印度政府下架的上百款中国App中，TOP6均来自APUS这家中国互联网公司。APUS作为中国最早的一批中国出海应用互联网公司，2020年恶劣的行业环境并未对APUS造成太大影响，反而2020 Q1、Q2 APUS营收呈逆势增长趋势。李涛表示，“影响仅仅在于，如果没有疫情的话，我们大概率会增长得更快。” "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"对APUS而言，这并不是第一次遭遇类似的打击。早在2016年，APUS就实现了基于安卓移动生态的商业化盈利，但随着谷歌广告政策的不断改进和收紧，靠流量广告变现的“躺赚”之路开始变得不好走了。Apus Launcher桌面应用被要求整改，APUS的谷歌广告账号在18年遭到谷歌封禁。但也正因为有了“前车之鉴”，APUS两年前就开始调整业务战略，才得以在风云变幻的市场中顽强发展。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一备受关注的同行“猎豹移动”则被打得有些措手不及。2020年，猎豹移动旗下所有App被谷歌全面封杀，直接导致公司近22%的营收化为乌有。其一季度财报显示，公司总收入5.28亿元，同比下降51.4%，海外移动工具业务收入同比下降62.6%；利润也由盈转亏，从去年归属股东710万的净利润变成净亏损1.04亿。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"猎豹移动董事长傅盛在接受采访时更一度感慨道：“我知道工具会退潮，从2015年就知道。所以那时候我们开始搞内容、搞AI。但我们从来没有想到，变化会是断崖式的。”但他也说，只要坚持不下牌桌，就还有机会拿一手好牌。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/f1\/a4\/f10f5e4e8e0b0bdbf7030b2f2ecdcca4.jpg","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"AI和智能机器人是猎豹移动当前最想讲的故事。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但TikTok在美国面临的“卖身”问题却棘手很多，并给行业提出了一个问题：当产品做得很大的时候，是不是也会面临TikTok的情况？主打国际社交的中国出海应用WorldTalk就曾被投资人问过类似问题。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“当时我真不知道怎么回答，这个问题很难回答。”WorldTalk运营总监雷华萍表示，这个问题算是终极问题，反过来想，作为创业者，如果真能走到那个阶段，企业也算是成功了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"疫情再次催热了社交产品市场，但资本变得更加谨慎。雷华萍坦言，公司在2020年的融资进程并不顺利，但已经实现收支平衡，因此2021年的目标是加强内部造血能力，提高收益，“资本应该是锦上添花的事情，而不是雪中送炭。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"回航、转舵"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"据财新网报道，由于TikTok印度禁令迟迟未解，TikTok印度团队已经在1月27日召开员工会通告裁员决定，与之对应的国内运营团队也已在考虑缩减规模。其中，印度当地将裁去过半运营岗位员工，数量大约在30名左右，目前其他岗位的裁员规模尚不明确。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在海外形势难以把控的大环境下，不少出海企业开始将重心移回到国内，加快推动在国内市场的业务发展。比如，头部出海企业触宝在国内推出的网文平台疯读小说发展迅速。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"第三方数据机构QuestMobile《中国移动互联网2020半年大报告》显示：“App用户规模千万级玩家”赛道中，免费在线阅读领域疯读小说以黑马姿态首次入榜，以2488.18万的MAU排名第59，紧随番茄、七猫其后，跻身免费在线阅读App市场前三。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事实上，触宝早期起步于国内市场，当时的明星产品是触宝电话，后来打开海外市场主要依靠一款输入法产品——触宝输入法。该输入法支持120多种语言，单款产品下载量超过6亿。触宝公关负责人宋宇表示，自2017年遭遇下架事件后，公司就不断调整业务架构，缩减工具类产品矩阵，并逐渐从一家应用型公司转型成泛娱乐生态公司。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"宋宇直言，几乎所有的出海公司都逃避不了这样一个现状，即对谷歌生态过于依赖，尤其是它的广告平台带来的变现。触宝为摆脱对垄断生态的依赖，18年上市之后就推出了自己的广告平台，所以后来在变现方面基本能够自给自足，可以通过自己的内循环经营下去。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"虽然触宝成功在竞争激烈的网文市场分得了一杯羹，但网文平台的免费模式仍存在不少质疑的声音。首先，免费模式容易影响用户体验，其次，广告营收是否能支撑平台和内容成本也有待市场检验。为了与巨头持续争夺流量和客户，触宝在营销上持续投入，这导致触宝的盈利情况并不理想。未来如何把控内容质量和广告投放的平衡，通过内容和增值服务留住客户并实现流量变现，对触宝来说仍是很大的挑战。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"APUS的核心市场战略亦从“出海”转向“全球化”，既布局国内市场，也继续开辟美国、欧洲、日本等发达国家市场。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“全球化的市场策略分散了风险，使APUS避免了过度依赖单一市场，也对冲了疫情和国际关系变化对APUS的影响。”李涛表示，国内市场上有很多小公司都不敢去创新，留出了很大的空白和机会。据了解，APUS正在国内积极尝试和探索to G和to B市场。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"热门风口：跨境电商"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在全球大部分国家因疫情陷入生产停滞之际，中国制造业却迎来了巨大机会。跨境电商增长尤其迅猛，2020年通过海关跨境电子商务管理平台验放进出口清单24.5亿票，同比增长63.3%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"天眼查App显示，中国2020年前10月已新增超过9.5万家跨境电商相关企业，同比去年增长79.22%。其中，第二季度新增超过3.5万家相关企业，环比增长58.8%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"深耕互联网出海服务多年的白鲸出海创始人魏方丹告诉InfoQ，2021年白鲸将重点关注DTC模式（Direct to Consumer，直达消费者），DTC品牌因去除中间环节而性价比高，是跨境电商的重要赛道，DTC品牌出海背后的意义不只是供应链的出海，更是中国品牌崛起的重要机会。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/3f\/8e\/3fdfae46a2242e01c400a639f876cb8e.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"跨境电商公司SheIn，是中国最神秘的百亿美元公司，被视为跨境电商品牌化的标杆。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"魏方丹认为，工具类App和游戏的竞争态势非常激烈，而跨境电商的市场规模容量之大、品类之多，将更容易诞生“独角兽”。此外，这两年也有不少做工具\/游戏出海和做流量的人转进跨境电商，因为他们认为自己对流量很了解，也知道海外市场是什么样的，只是不知道供应链怎么做，仓储怎么做，以及品牌怎么打造。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"跨境电商企业店匠Shoplazza也瞄向了DTC出海市场，其业务范围主要为SaaS建站系统和DTC品牌出海营销服务。据店匠联合创始人兼CTO夏冰介绍，2020年公司客户增速比较快，对公司技术层面来说，面临的挑战主要在于如何保证服务的稳定性和安全性。为此公司在不断加大研发投入，包括吸纳更多人才以及增加服务器的投入等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"夏冰表示，深圳的头部卖家基本是采取平台加独立站的双轨模式来运作。相比亚马逊等大平台模式，独立站模式的品牌性会更强，直接触及消费者，把握消费者全生命周期，意味着生意会变得更长期。所以现在越来越多跨境电商将会在独立站上有更多的投入。“相信未来中国供应链的优势会进一步发挥出来。从海外独立站的趋势看，来源于中国供应链的商品比例会越来越高。”"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"出海，还是那片海吗？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"据金融时报统计，到2019年中国投资者投入印度的资金达14亿美金。以2018年为例，印度排名前100的应用，有44家来自中国开发者。然而几乎一夜之间，印度当局的一纸禁令封禁了59款中国应用，印度，一下子从蓝海变为投资禁区。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TikTok禁令事件也发人深省。李涛指出，疫情让更多的人有时间上网，但是又碰上包括中美贸易冲突、去年印度对整个中国互联网企业连续3至4次的封禁事件，对中国出海企业来说，是敲响了一个警钟。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"魏方丹进一步表示，出海企业将比以往更重视法律上的投入和知识产权事宜，风险意识更强。在产品初级阶段就得考虑更合规的做法，毕竟像TikTok这样被认为所有操作都合规合法的情况下，也还是会受到不公正待遇。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"虽然市场存在危机，也有着越来越多的不确定性，但宏观来看，出海仍是一门有得做的生意。App Annie近日发布的《2021年移动市场报告》显示，用户的应用习惯尚未完全形成——全球对于新应用的需求仍呈增长趋势，下载量同比增长7%，达到2180亿，目前正是获取用户的好时机。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外，消费者将更多现实需求寄托于移动应用，用户支出再创新高，达到1430亿美元，同比增长20%。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"尽管TikTok度过了不安稳的一年，但它仍然席卷全球。报告指出，TikTok超过Facebook，成为2020年iOS和Android下载量最高的应用程序。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"TikTok在使用时长排行榜中排名前5，其用户平均每月使用时长增长速度几乎比其他所有应用都快，在美国达到70%，在英国达到80%。预计2021年TikTok的活跃用户数有望达到12亿。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/8d\/3e\/8d168983fc838c62b129497f954fc83e.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"国产游戏出海也有喜人局面。米哈游推出的《原神》自2020年9月底上市以来，迅速在多国流行起来，成为新的现象级手游。Sensor Tower数据显示，米哈游《原神》移动端上线2个月就吸金3.93亿美元，12月新版本上线后，其移动端当天吸金超过1100万美元，刷新中国手游海外单日收入记录。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外，《原神》还被苹果官方评选为App Store年度游戏，这是中国手游首次获评苹果年度应用。同时，《原神》还获得了Google Play 2020年度最佳游戏。这些案例也是中国企业出海潜力的有力证明。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“最重要的是，你拿到全球市场上的产品，必须是不可替代、不可禁的，国际化的本质是创新。”李涛说道。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"打压还在继续。2021年1月5日，美国时任总统特朗普签署了《应对中国企业开发或控制的特定应用程序威胁的行政命令》（下称《行政命令》）。其中涉及的8个中国应用软件为：支付宝、扫描全能王、QQ钱包、茄子快传、腾讯QQ、短视频平台VMate、微信支付和办公软件WPS Office。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"无论如何，市场一直都是风险和机遇共存，但中国互联网出海的步伐不会轻易停下。"}]}]}