中芯國際 2020 年 Q4 財報：業績搶眼股價卻大跌，國產“芯”路在何方？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"2 月 4 日晚，中芯國際披露 2020 年度第四季度業績快報。財報數據顯示，2020 年第四季度，公司淨利潤爲 12.52 億元，同比增長 93.5% ，營業收入 66.71 億元，同比增長 10.3% 。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"受益於消費電子、信息通訊等行業需求強勁，全球芯片用量上漲，晶圓代工行業產能整體緊張，中芯國際全年營收實現增長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"整體看來，中芯國際 Q4 財報數據表現依然可圈可點，並沒有想象中那麼糟糕。然而由於此前連續 22 天的大量資金湧入和局部高估，中芯國際今日開盤後股價大跌。截止發稿，下跌幅度已達6.7%，單股報價25.5元。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"業績向好但股市的表現卻並不那麼樂觀，中芯國際眼下的道路充滿了不確定性。但事實上，如果將時間線拉長來看，中芯國際長期發展的基本面，並沒有因爲這一份季度報的發佈而改變太多。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"持續佈局成熟製程助力長跑"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"對比中芯國際 Q4 季報和以往財報數據發現，目前中芯國際核心收入主要來源於 28nm 以上的成熟製程，中芯國際 90% 以上的營收都主要源自於此。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"就目前來看，全球半導體制程工藝的發展分爲先進製程和成熟製程兩類。其中，28nm 以上的屬於成熟製程，28nm 以下的則大多被歸類至先進製程。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"單純從工業成本角度考慮，由於先進製程在上游的 IC 設計、製造設備配備等方面所需耗費的成本越來越高，最終導致採用該先進製程的芯片的成本也較高，但市場的需求量相對較小，綜合下來盈利能力反而不如成熟製程。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"反觀成熟製程技術，出於穩定、安全、性價比等方面的因素考慮，相對成熟的製程技術更容易得到客戶的接納，而這也能讓專注於這一方面製程技術研發運用的企業在經營管理方面得到一個更加明確的可預期性。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"爲滿足客戶需求，中芯國際預計 2021 年資本開支 43 億美元，其中大部分將用於成熟製程工藝的擴產，小部分用於先進工藝。預計 2021 年成熟 12 寸產線擴產 1 萬片，成熟 8 寸產線擴產不少於 4.5 萬片。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"“成熟製程的佈局有利於穩固中芯國際營收增長，能夠爲後續持續的研發投入儲備足夠的資金，利好長期發展。”有網友就此發表評論稱。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"受益於成熟製程在技術成本以及市場需求上的優勢，中芯國際短期的業績增長並不會出現大幅度的變動。更何況，目前中芯國際已經掌握了成熟的 14nm 穩定量產工藝，並且也達到了業界水準。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"上月中旬，在中芯國際內部的蔣梁之爭逐漸平息之後，蔣尚義出席了第二屆中國芯創年會，其發言表示：“14nm製程已經能滿足生活中大部分所用，只有電子級消費產品才需要高端芯片製程工藝，中芯國際的實力不可小覷。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"而在另一方面，在摩爾定律已經接近物理極限的情況之下，先進製程在朝着更加低nm級別演進的空間也越來越小，這在拉低了整個芯片行業發展速度的同時，也爲整個產業鏈上的後進企業們留下了追趕的餘地。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"“最先進的硅工藝運用的領域範疇並不多，這給我們填補多元化市場帶來優勢。”發言中，蔣尚義如此表示。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"受制於短期出口管制的影響，中芯國際面臨不確定性導致股價波動的情況在所難免，但長遠來看，萬物互聯時代，半導體推動各行業創新和發展的腳步不會停滯，尤其是在舉國體制和新基建等產業政策的扶持之下，國內半導體產業的發展前景依然可期。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"被卡脖子的晶圓代工巨人"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"自 2019 年正式退出美股市場之後，在本次財報發佈前的 1  月 29 日，中芯國際還正式宣佈了退出美國 OTCQX 市場營運者的美國場外交易。這意味着，美國公民想要在本國通過合法渠道購買中芯國際的股票，這已經完全不可能了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"但在另一方面，當美股市場將中芯國際狠狠地關在門外的同時，另外一扇大門也正在爲中芯國際而打開 —— 這一扇門正是有着佔全球半導體需求約 60% 的中國市場，有着龐大的內生需求和高漲的國民熱情，長遠來看潛力無窮。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"但是，眼下門內正在面臨的客觀挑戰卻是：國內半導體產業在尖端技術、核心生產設備自給等方面自給能力低下，一旦被外部力量卡住了脖子，短期內想要取得發展突破的希望依然渺茫。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"一個鮮明的例子是，因爲出口管制的限制，中芯國際於 2018 年 4 月份向荷蘭半導體制造設備供應商阿斯麥爾（ASML）訂購的 EUV 光刻機至今仍然沒能到貨。如果按照原來的預期，這一光刻機在  2020 年的時候就該正式安裝了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"受制於 EUV 光刻機的遲遲未能到貨，中芯國際在先進製程領域的工藝水平遲遲未能得到快速推進。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"而在去年 12 月，美國商務部工業和安全局更是進一步將中芯國際列入實體清單，其面臨的短期不確定依然在進一步提升。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"據公開數據顯示，一臺 ASML 的 EUV 光刻機零部件總數超過 10w 多顆，想要將這些零部件製造出來並且精密地組裝到一起，同時保障這些零件在運行的時候不出現工程事故，這將會是一件繁複無比的事情。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在此前的採訪中，有采訪對象曾經用修建公路的例子類比了芯片產品的製造。“造一個芯片，相當於是把上海市所有的公交道路設施都裝進一個指甲蓋大小的硅片當中，其中的複雜度可想而知。”而要自己製造一臺能夠生產出這類芯片的機器設備，這中間更是難上加難。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"就目前中芯國際因爲 ASML 的 EUV 光刻機忽然被卡住脖子的情況來看，中芯國際如果想完全依靠國內的工業水平以及芯片技術能力實現完全自研自給，這幾乎是一件難以實現的事情。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"事實上，這不僅僅是中芯國際或者國內短期無法做到的，放眼世界上任何一家芯片產業相關企業及其所在國，如果忽然遇到不可抗力導致多年合作的供應鏈夥伴遲遲不肯發貨這樣的事故，想要短期內依靠自身力量實現自研自給，這同樣也幾乎是不可能實現的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"芯片產業的超高複雜程度，使得其本身就成爲了一個具有全球壟斷性質的行業。在這個行業中，以荷蘭 ASML 、日本尼康、佳能以及國內上海微電子爲代表的少數幾家企業，牢牢佔據最上游的設備研發領域。再往下是以蘋果、三星、高通、英特爾、海思等爲代表的芯片設計類企業。隨後到了以臺積電、格羅方德、聯電等爲代表的代工製造企業。以及再往下的封測及下游應用類企業。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在這整個的產業鏈當中，每個環節做得最出色的企業往往只侷限於自己所在的環節，在整個產業鏈向上或者向下的環節中都相對涉獵較少，彼此之間的發展以及產品實現高度依賴上下游企業。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"可以說，在芯片製造環節，即使是目前佔據了行業內 50% 以上芯片代工市場份額的臺積電，如果其忽然沒有了上游的芯片製造設備廠商供貨，短期業務運轉必然也將受到嚴重傷害。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"如今迫於美國出口管制政策而遲遲拿不到 EUV 光刻機的中芯國際，彷彿因此成爲了一個被某雙大手掐住脖頸的巨人。在巨人與雙手的力量博弈之間，雖然雙手並沒那麼渴望制服或者一時也制服不了巨人，但是巨人也因此被攪擾得方寸大亂。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"守着偌大的國內市場，未來更是有望追上 5G 、智能汽車等新興技術帶來的增量市場機會，但是巨人卻一時之間不知道如何逐一抓起。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"必然走上的自主可控之路"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"短期看來，被卡住脖頸的現狀確實不容樂觀，對於商業運作或者股市估值的變動自然也存在着直接的影響。但是，從長期視角來看，情況或許沒那麼悲觀。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"事實上，沒有哪一家企業會願意一直受制於人，而中芯國際作爲全球晶圓代工市場的前五成員，同時也代表了大陸晶圓代工的最高水平，被寄予了國產半導體行業發展崛起的殷殷厚望，自然也不願意長期受制於此。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"2019 年 10 月，國家大基金二期註冊成立，註冊資本 2041.5 億元，主要由財政部、國開金融、亦莊國投、中國電信、聯通資本、中國電子信息產業集團、紫光通信等 27 家實力派企業組織構成重要參股單位，個個來頭不小。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"而大基金正式成立並開始啓動投資的時候，大基金二期第二家選中投資的企業便是中芯國際。在國家隊基金入場支持的情況之下，中芯國際的發展成敗，已經不再是最初幾個創始股東的事情了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"就在幾天前的 1 月 28 日，在工信部發布的全國集成電路標準化技術委員會籌建的公示名單中，包括華爲、阿里、騰訊、中芯國際、海思半導體、紫光展銳、清華大學、北京大學、國防科技大學等國內頂尖軟硬件企業、高校等90多家企事業單位，共同聯手參與了集成電路標準的制定，全國產業界人士團結一致共克時艱的場景，一度使人振奮。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"對於中芯國際而言，最終的結果大致只有三種："}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"第一，被徹底地制服並從此嚴重受制於制服自己的“雙手”，後續所有的行動與權益分配完全聽任“雙手”發號施令。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"第二，經過一段時間的博弈較量之後，曾經卡脖子的雙手逐漸轉變爲捂手言和的“友誼之手”，雙方重新建立起新的對話機制，再次開展合作。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"第三，中芯國際形成了一套完全自主的技術體系，從此徹底擺脫束縛。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"三種可能中，第一種可能是全國產業界都不願看到的；第二種雖然有些理想主義，但無疑也是最現實可行的；第三種過於極端，需要長久的時間週期考量。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"沒有人會精心地去計算並推演這幾種可能發生的概率各有多少，但是有一點可以確認的是，在看透了孟晚舟與榮耀被迫剝離事件的真相之後，尋求核心技術的自主可控，已然成爲了絕大多數產業界人士內心最真實的呼喚。"}]}]}