在線教育嚴監管背後：中產逃離公立校，警惕教育“拉丁美洲化”

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"針對K12課外輔導，這次國家監管，源頭來自於公立校和課外輔導機構之間的關係和分工問題。"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"監管密集出拳，在線教育急“剎車”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這個酷熱的夏天，可能沒誰比在線教育行業更冷了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"伴隨着一系列政策密集發佈，在線教育行業正在經歷着一場史上最嚴厲的監管風暴。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"K12在線課外輔導和幼教處在監管的風暴眼。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今年3月，教育部印發《關於大力推進幼兒園與小學科學銜接的指導意見》要求，落實國家有關規定，校外培訓機構不得對學前兒童違規進行培訓。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"5月，“雙減”政策 — 《關於進一步減輕義務教育階段學生作業負擔和校外培訓負擔的意見》（以下簡稱《意見》）被審議通過。《意見》指出，要通過全面提高學校教學質量減輕學生負擔。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《意見》指出，校外培訓機構無序發展，“校內減負、校外增負”現象突出。"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"要全面規範管理校外培訓機構。要明確培訓機構收費標準，加強預收費監管，嚴禁隨意資本化運作。完善相關法律，依法管理校外培訓機構。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"6月1日，新修訂的《未成年人保護法》 正式施行，其第三十三條規定，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"幼兒園、校外培訓機構不得對學齡前未成年人進行小學課程教育。"},{"type":"text","text":"《未成年人保護法》是目前規範和整治校外培訓機構所依據的最高層級的法律之一。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"該法規一出，不少在線教培機構開始調整自己的幼教業務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"高途課堂官方稱，根據《未成年人保護法》規定，公司決定停止小早啓蒙面向3-6歲兒童的招生工作，並據此對組織架構和人員進行調整。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據悉，學而思網校、猿輔導等也全面下架了針對學前兒童的課程。VIPKID的“啓蒙英語”業務線被砍。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"大抵是爲了規避政策風險，多家少兒啓蒙AI課機構集體更名。猿輔導的斑馬AI課更名爲斑馬，火花思維的小火花AI課更名爲小火花啓蒙，好未來的小猴AI課更名爲小猴啓蒙。此外它們在內容上也有調整，上線了一些素養類課程，如美術課。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"不過，這些課程仍存在被界定爲學科類知識培訓的風險。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這或許也是爲什麼火花思維希望趕在政策落地前，加快IPO進程的原因。6月21日晚，火花思維悄悄遞交了招股書，尋求赴美上市。招股書中，火花思維提到，無法保證學齡前的課程不會被認定爲小學課程教育，也無法排除課程服務被判定會加重課業負擔的風險。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"6月15日，教育部新設的部門 — 校外教育培訓監管司宣佈成立，其主要職責是，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"承擔面向中小學生（含幼兒園兒童）的校外教育培訓管理工作，擬訂校外教育培訓規範管理政策和相關標準、制度等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"7月2日，校外教育培訓監管司領導班子成員正式公佈，俞偉躍任司長，楊劍波、陳東昇任副司長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“爲管理教育培訓機構，教育部專門成立一個司局級部門，說明確實下定決心了”，一位資深教育行業觀察者認爲。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“近些年來，對行業如此大力度的監管，這是第一次”， 教育科技領域資深投資人前梧桐樹資本投資總監董帥在接受InfoQ採訪時表示，“以前針對幼兒園、APP進校、教師資格證等有相關的指導方針，大多力度有限，這次多部門對K12課外輔導推出了多個監管政策，包括開課限制、培訓時長和投放限制、資金管理等，並且成立了專門的監管司，可以說是對市場影響最大的一次”。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"裁員風波或波及四五萬人"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"強監管之下，近期，行業開啓了大裁員。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據新浪科技報道，一位作業幫員工透露，僅6月7日上午，作業幫就裁掉了1000多人。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在線教育領域的資深獵頭王秋明（化名）告訴InfoQ，“高途課堂的小早啓蒙項目整體被裁，大約影響了幾千人，有些人可以內部轉崗，聽說很多人要去鄭州分中心，也有不少人不想去而選擇離職，不過，高途給的賠償不是很理想”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"王秋明瞭解到，作業幫的幼教項目鴨鴨AI課也被裁員了幾百人左右，被裁員工給了N+1的補償。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"裁員潮來臨時，應屆生往往是首先被裁的對象。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據報道，猿輔導停止了2021年的校招生入職；好未來裁掉了不少2021年畢業的應屆生，且讓被裁員工“二選一”：一是直接離職，每人可獲得2500元補貼；二是留職，每個月可獲得800元補貼，持續到7月31日。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"輔導老師是受影響最大的羣體。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"王秋明告訴InfoQ，被毀約的輔導老師特別多，例如在高途等機構。輔導老師是在線教育行業規模最龐大的一個羣體。監管壓力下，機構業務萎縮，便不再需要那麼多輔導老師了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"招聘市場也不景氣。“暫停職位招聘的特別多，學而思網校等大部分K12在線課外輔導機構都在暫緩招聘，且都是針對整體崗位的暫緩”，王秋明說。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"只有一些幾乎不受這次政策影響的細分賽道如職業教育機構，還在大舉招人。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"某IT教育機構的品牌李氪（化名）告訴InfoQ，這些年，K12和幼教賽道培養了很多人才，藉着這波人員流動的高峯期，他們公司正在吸納一部分來自這兩個領域的人才，包括市場、運營、銷售等人才。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"李氪估計，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"“在線教育行業這次裁員，大概波及四五萬人，且多體現在頭部機構”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“我覺得可能還不止（這個數字）” ，王秋明覺得，“這只是‘前菜’，等後面的政策落地了，各家機構可能還會有很大的（裁員）動作”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"沒過多久，在“雙減”和校外教育培訓監管司的基礎上，又一政策 —"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"暑期託管"},{"type":"text","text":"落地了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"7月2日，北京市教委宣佈，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"暑假期間，北京市各區教委組織面向小學一年級至五年級學生的託管服務。"},{"type":"text","text":" 學生以就近原則參加託管服務。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"託管服務內容主要包括提供學習場所，開放圖書館、閱覽室，有組織地開展體育活動等。**但不組織學科培訓和集體授課。**適當收取費用，對家庭困難學生免收託管服務費用。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"隨後，上海、武漢、蘇州、無錫、深圳等多地也陸續宣佈啓動試點暑期託管班政策。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"7月8日，教育部印發了《關於支持探索開展暑期託管服務的通知》（以下簡稱《通知》），"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"引導支持有條件的地方積極探索開展暑期託管服務工作。"},{"type":"text","text":" 可以預見，暑期託管政策或許會逐漸向全國推廣。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外，多地下發通知禁止暑期補課。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"7月8日，山西省朔州市教育局發佈了暫停全市學科類校外培訓機構線下培訓的通知。7月14日，山西省榆林市全市各縣區也正在全面關停義務教育階段學科類校外培訓機構。近日，安徽省合肥市巢湖市教體局發通知稱，不允許2021年暑假對義務教育階段學生提供學科類培訓。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"近日，有傳聞稱，新東方的部分小區傳出，已有老師通知家長暑期不能上課。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"寒、暑期檔是線上教育機構在一年之中獲客最爲關鍵的時期，暑期託管服務將導致線上教育機構暑期培訓課程生源的減少。而未來，暑期託管模式一旦長期施行，對在線教育的衝擊也將是巨大的。不少人惴惴不安，這個暑期是否會成爲最後一個暑期檔？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"正如王秋明所預料的，裁員還在繼續。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有高途匿名員工在脈脈上無奈吐槽，“昨天還在想裁員結束沒有，（沒想到）高途第二次裁員這就開始了？救救我救救我” 另有傳聞稱，一起教育即將大比例裁員....."}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"內卷嚴重，泡沫凸顯"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原來的速度太快了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2013年被認爲是在線教育的元年，這一年，在線教育項目爆發式增長，巨頭開始入局，行業融資總額接近10億美元，迎來了首波資本熱潮。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"接下來的幾年裏，伴着移動互聯網的浪潮，在資本裹挾下，加上AI等技術的突破作支撐，在線教育一路突飆猛進。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一輪輪的融資“軍備競賽”，令在線教育行業加速發展的同時，也帶來了人員的高速擴張。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"這次在線教育行業的裁員潮並不是因企業經營危機導致的裁員，而更多的是，國家的限制政策帶來的需求切斷，供給過剩。"},{"type":"text","text":" 通過合理的裁員以及合理的限制招人，將原來的系統降速，是應對政策變化不得已而爲之的緩解策略”，董帥表示。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"經過8年發展，雖然目前在線教育行業在逐漸步入成熟期，但在很長一段時間裏，行業都處在野蠻生長的階段，市場過度狂熱，滋生了各種亂象。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"賽伯樂投資集團創新部投資總監楊光認爲，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"這次監管趨嚴，是因爲泡沫凸顯到一定程度了"},{"type":"text","text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“去年，我看到小型美術課已經出現了泡沫，小規模的賽道有泡沫的話，主流的K12課外輔導也難免有泡沫。大家全都往線上湧，線上課程的質量、性價比、師資如果沒那麼好的話，會出現很多問題，如負面反饋，課程捆綁、課程疊加等，監管遲早會有行動。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“現在一些在線教育公司，沒融到資金，政府一監管，行業的泡沫就被擠壓了”，楊光認爲，通過監管，淘汰尾部玩家，倒逼線上課程服務、質量提升，這對行業來說也是好事。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"做教育獵頭的這5年，王秋明見證了這個行業一路走向高光的歷程，也見到了不少高光背後的暗影。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在他看來，在線教育行業尤其是頭部機構，確實有點“烏煙瘴氣”。“有的老師學歷是假的，有的就是包裝，明明剛畢業但聲稱有5-10年經驗。老師的專業能力也參差不齊，很多老師並不是學師範的，我見過太多老師，有學獸醫的、林業的、園藝的...總之多來自一些難就業的專業。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"在2020年以前，很多老師甚至都沒有教師資格證"},{"type":"text","text":"。“我不方便說是哪家，有的大廠直接就買教師資格證”。王秋明覺得，當老師連基本的教師資格證都沒有，這太不可思議了。“國家發現這個問題後，從去年開始，要求機構的主講老師必須有教資，很多人這纔去考證。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"監管之後，情況有了很大改善。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據王秋明觀察，現在能教課的老師基本都有教資了，因爲一旦查出來就會被封課，老師也會暫停上課，沒有課時費。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"沒有辦學許可證的教育機構不在少數。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"教育部等4部門2018年開展的校外培訓機構專項治理行動有關通報顯示，截至今年5月**在摸排到的近13萬所校外培訓機構中，證照不齊的佔到六成以上。**缺乏資質的校外培訓機構往往存在師資隊伍不穩、教學水平較差等情況，嚴重影響服務質量，引發消費者不滿。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不止亂象頻出，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"教育行業的內卷現象也尤爲嚴重"},{"type":"text","text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"資本和玩家不斷湧入，把行業的薪資“炒”了起來。據王秋明介紹，頭部機構的教學、教研崗位的待遇水平處在高位，尤其是主講老師。猿輔導剛畢業的主講老師，薪資保底約在50萬元以上，優秀的老師年薪百萬很正常。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"高薪意味着超高的選拔要求。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“頭部機構對主講老師的學歷要求高，現在普遍要求是C9聯盟（即國內前9的高校聯盟）。猿輔導有很多老師從哈佛、斯坦福畢業，清華、北大都成第二梯隊了，一般的機構也得要求985 211。普通本科想去這些機構當老師基本是不可能的，普本畢業的當輔導老師的比較多”，王秋明坦言，行業已經高度內捲了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不過，一個令人費解的現象是，這些有光鮮學歷背景的主講老師，所扮演的角色，有些像演員。王秋明透露，“與傳統的公立校老師不同，校外輔導機構的很多老師教學的教案、教學的流程，都是別的團隊給準備好的，主講老師可能就是上去表演一下”。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"防止“教育拉丁美洲化”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"瘋狂的在線教育是時候戴上“緊箍咒”了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此番國家出手整治課外培訓輔導市場，一方面是爲了規範行業亂象，促進行業健康發展。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而更深層次的目的，是爲了保障中國教育事業的長期發展。“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"針對K12課外輔導這次國家監管，源頭來自於公立校和課外輔導機構之間的關係和分工問題"},{"type":"text","text":"”，董帥表示。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"爲什麼國家要突然這麼的嚴監管？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"董帥認爲，監管政策確實有些嚴厲，這背後與三個關鍵詞高度相關。第一個關鍵詞是“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"貧富差距和階級固化"},{"type":"text","text":"”；第二個關鍵詞是“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"生育壓力或者說教育焦慮"},{"type":"text","text":"”，第三個關鍵詞是“"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"教育的功利主義"},{"type":"text","text":"”，即，在中國的生源選拔機制下存在的教育功利主義的現象。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事情還要從在線教育的崛起說起。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在線教育的崛起實際上源於公立學校的減負。2010年，《國家中長期教育改革和發展規劃綱要（2010-2020）》出臺，綱要明確提出，要給學生減輕課業負擔，同時要求，在減少課業的同時，增加課時和提高難度。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一場持續十餘年的公立學校“減負”運動拉開帷幕。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"公立校“減負”的主要方式有，減少學生在校時間；減少學生作業量；控制教材及考試的難度；控制招生過程中文化課的要求等。公立校希望通過“減負”，讓學生能有更多的時間，希望孩子自由快樂的成長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"然而，公立校大幅減負釋放的時間和學習空間反而成了課外輔導機構生存和發展的基礎。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2016年，《民辦教育促進法》開始允許設立盈利性教育機構，推動課外輔導進入發展的黃金時代，各種各樣的課外培訓層出不窮。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"儘管初衷是好的，但最終造成的結果是，公立學校單向減負後，孩子的時間反而再一次被擠壓了。家長的發展焦慮沒解決，學生放學後，又被送入課外輔導機構補習，對學生來說，又形成了新的負擔。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"上公立學校，每個孩子的學費都是一樣的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而上課外輔導機構的費用較高，動輒成千上萬，尤其是一對一培訓，線下游學、名師的課程更是昂貴。窮人家的孩子上不起或者覺得沒必要上，有錢人家的孩子更追求高端的課程。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"富裕的家庭重視給孩子灌輸更好的學習資源，沒錢的家庭可能直接就放棄了，這些孩子可能因此產生對社會的抱怨，他們自身也會感受到教育壓力，產生教育焦慮。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"孩子產生成績比較的壓力，父母則感受到的是，恐懼階級固化的焦慮。父母會縈繞在一種‘別人在投資教育我也要投入’的焦慮感之中。最後帶來的長遠影響，就是教育的功利主義 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:{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"俞偉躍在2020在線教育論壇上發言時曾強調，學校在學科教育和輔導作業之外，還要開展一些體育、藝術、閱讀等活動。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“國家希望孩子迴歸到公立校參與共同建設。"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"輔導機構如果能順應國家的需求，順應大環境，抓住這波公立校改革的機會，或許是市場新的發展機會"},{"type":"text","text":" 。這是一個系統性的變化。內部的機會被‘打壓了’，優秀的組織必然會嘗試去探索外部性的機會” ，董帥表示。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"楊光認爲，監管是否會擠壓教培機構的生存空間，這裏面涉及多方力量的博弈，包括國家的要求，教師收入的要求，家長教育投入的需求，孩子的需求，這將是一個市場和監管不斷磨合，平衡各方力量的過程。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從市場化的消費趨向來看，在很多中國家長的教育觀念裏，提分是核心，大多數人還是願意把錢花到給學生提分的項目上。因此，楊光認爲，K12在線課外輔導仍是剛需，監管緩和後，未來的發展趨勢仍向好。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"終局之戰：沒有贏家，難出超級巨頭"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"經過這輪監管，資本的態度也更加謹慎了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一些在線教育公司的融資沒那麼快了，融資進度受到了一定影響，最難的是中小機構，融資的難度更大。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在線教育行業的公司普遍高估值，監管之下，很多公司的估值或將下調，甚至大打折扣。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"每當有政策變動的傳聞出來，多家在線教育上市公司如好未來、跟誰學、新東方的股價已經跌了好幾輪。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"還沒有上市的公司，現在可能都不太敢上市了。據傳，政策對K12上市也有了一定限制。目前雖沒有正式的文件落地，但業內似乎已心照不宣。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"尤其是猿輔導、作業幫等TOP選手，融資已到後期，離上市近在咫尺。但短期來看，監管將一定程度上影響它們上市，他們背後的投資人可能面臨損失，尤其是去年跟進的後期投資人。一個最直接的影響是，如何跟老股東解釋業績是否達標，就是一個大難題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事實上，與此前最爲瘋狂的時候相比，現在在線教育在資本市場已經不是最熱的時候了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"據瞭解，大概從2019年開始，諸多投資機構大幅減少了對於K12教育行業的中早期公司的投資行爲。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"投資風向集體轉變的原因主要是，猿輔導、作業幫等公司已經成爲行業頭部，後面的創新型小公司基本沒機會了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2020年，前10家在線教育機構拿了市場上90%以上的錢，且82%的錢投向了作業幫、猿輔導兩家公司。這意味着，去年行業已經進入終局之戰，不再是“百花齊放”了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外，這次監管政策又將猿輔導、作業幫等大玩家帶來一波衝擊，市場本身規模變小，投資人就更不看了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"曾幾何時 ，很多投資人摩拳擦掌，希望在線教育行業孵化出千億美元市值的超級大公司。但在未來市場被限制、縮小的情況下，這個願望恐怕難以實現了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"多重因素疊加之下，這場在線教育的終局之戰，可能很難有真正的贏家。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}],"text":"（爲保護受訪者隱私，文中王秋明，李氪均爲化名）"}]}]}