云计算领域将如何重新洗牌

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"当前，云计算提供商已经提供了从开发者体验到硬件的端到端解决方案："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/05\/22\/054ef31e2d75164a576dfa7dc7749622.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"假如云计算提供商把精力集中在最底层，而其他（纯软件）提供商专注于上面的一层，又会如何呢？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/67\/27\/67177356bc450935587b346df7461a27.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我对云计算提供商（AWS、Azure、GCP）有这样以下预测："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"云计算提供商将越来越多地关注堆栈中的最底层；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"基本上就是通过 API 来租用其数据中心的容量，其他纯软件提供商会在它上面构建数据库、运行代码等。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"五年后，你们可以来打我的脸。但是我认为Redshift 的故事很好地解释了这些观点。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"云计算的发展"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在 Redshift 诞生之前，Teradata是这个市场的主要参与者 ，曾推出了 On-prem 。当时的初创公司拒绝 SQL，而使用 Hadoop SQL 也显得有点笨拙。Redshift 是 AWS 提供的数据仓库（也称为 OLAP 数据库）。数据库管理系统提供商 ParAccel，通过AWS 获得技术"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/news.ycombinator.com\/item?id=18992467","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"授权"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"，在2012 年推出了Redshift。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Redshift 是当时第一个运行在云端的数据仓库。Redshift 立即降低了小型公司进行数据分析的门槛。企业不必自己建立任何基础设施或者整天编写自定义的 MapReduce、重新加载 jobtracker。反而，企业可以在 AWS 中启动一个 Redshift 集群，为其提供大量的数据，然后再正常运行。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"同样在2012 年，我在偶然与 Snowflake 创始人共进午餐，第二天就获得了一个工作机会。当时的Snowflake 还很小，但现在它已经是一家上市公司，市值超过 1000 亿美元。总体来说，Snowflake 的产品与 Redshift 类似。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"不过，Snowflake 和 Redshift 在架构上有一大差异。 Snowflake 很早就做了完全解耦。AWS 于 2016 年推出了基于 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/prestodb.io\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Presto"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" 的 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.businesswire.com\/news\/home\/20161130006129\/en\/AWS-Launches-Amazon-Athena","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Athena"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"，在 2017 年推出了 Redshift Spectrum，用户可以通过 Redshift 查询 S3 中的数据。Redshift 现在"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/aws.amazon.com\/about-aws\/whats-new\/2021\/11\/amazon-redshift-serverless\/","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"才发布无服务器产品"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"，但他们可能早就该如此。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Redshift 刚发布时确实带来了很多好处。AWS 具有庞大的规模经济，能够控制底层资源（EC2），并为构建软件做出更大的投资，他们甚至对 RedShift 开发进行补贴。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"8年后，事情发生了一些变化。Snowflake 的发展已经超过了 Redshift。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/72\/14\/72a29e126ec05eyyb23142aef0634614.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"是什么力量支持着像 Snowflake 这样公司的发展？这对其他云产品意味着什么？有人认为，最底层的云服务就是纯粹的商品服务。所以，为了盈利至少需要做到以下一项："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在堆栈的高层赚钱。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在堆栈中使用较高的服务来锁定客户，再从堆栈的底层赚钱。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"从历史的角度来看，这些都有道理。但是，一些有趣的事情正在朝向另一个方向发展："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“头部软件”的竞争变得异常激烈。很多的创业公司在风投推动下追逐热点，并且愿意投入数十亿美元用于软件开发。云计算提供商可能很乐意仅从最底层赚钱。利润率并不会那么糟糕，而且提供商的锁定度仍然相当高。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"初创公司纷纷涌入云计算"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"从未有如此之多的公司寻求云计算服务："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/f6\/26\/f6a6cf128fe231dc03c4918beeda5c26.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这期间发生了什么呢？我认为至少有三种不同的因素："},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":null,"normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"大公司的激励机制往往抑制了新想法的出现。与此同时，风险投资公司正将资金投入到该领域。假如你是个有抱负的人，你是去 AWS 工作，还是加入早期的初创公司，抑或自己创业？创新有望从大公司向初创公司转移。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"一家软件提供商可以同时为所有的云计算提供商开发。对于 Snowflake，我认为这确实是个好消息，因为早期客户很关心多云。Snowflake也扩大了市场规模，甚至超过了任何云计算提供商。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":3,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"许多成功的云产品开始于内部服务。亚马逊、谷歌和微软等已经做了榜样，他们在内部大规模测试后发现，这些工具非常适合其大型企业客户。但另一方面，由于过于注重规模、可靠性和可配置性，开发者的体验已成为攻击媒介，尤其中端市场和小型企业可能更关心提高开发者的工作效率。Uber、Netflix 和 Airbnb 等规模稍大的公司都有团队离职后，将内部工具商业化（通常是通过开源的中间步骤）。这些工具主观上更倾向于关注开发者的体验。"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"云计算提供商们怎么盈利"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"据报道，EC2 的"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2021\/09\/05\/how-amazon-web-services-makes-money-estimated-margins-by-service.html","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"利润率在 50% 左右，而 AWS 整体利润率在 60% 左右"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"。这意味着，如果一个客户每年要在 Redshift 上花费 100 万美元，AWS在付清 EC2 的运营成本和折旧费用之后的毛利润约为 50~70 万美元。但是，如果该客户将 100 万美元\/年的预算给了 Snowflake，那么最终会有约 40 万美元回转到 AWS，因此 AWS 的毛利润大约是 20 万美元。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"这似乎对 AWS 有点不好？这个还不能确定。根据"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/investors.snowflake.com\/news\/news-details\/2021\/Snowflake-Reports-Financial-Results-for-the-Second-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2022\/default.aspx","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"财报"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"，Snowflake 预计 2022 年的研发成本将占公司收入的 20%，销售和营销成本则是 48%。那么，以100 万美元的收入来计算，Snowflake 的成本是 70 万美元。但也许 AWS 创造同样的收入只需要 30~40 万美元的成本。这样似乎是合理的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"现在我想通了。AWS 面临着同样的情况，但是实际上却将构建和销售软件的所有成本“转嫁”给了 Snowflake等企业。这对他们来说是一笔不错的交易。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"AWS 建立软件服务的另一个原因是可以增加用户粘性。Redshift 本身或许并不是一棵摇钱树，但它减少了 EC2 上的流失率。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作为CTO，我已经做云迁移的六年中，我没有考虑过这个问题。与大多数公司一样，我的公司在工程师薪水上的花费比云计算本身要多得多。将宝贵的时间用在云计算迁移上是不值得的，除非云计算开支成为毛利的重要组成部分，而这只有少数公司可以做到。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"企业不能随便选择一个云计算提供商买下最便宜的数据库，然后在上面运行。企业希望在相同的云计算提供商和同一个数据中心中运行。Snowflake、Confluent 和 MongoDB（Atlas）的注册流程中问了两个问题：1. 你的云计算提供商是哪家？2. 在哪个地区？请注意，第一个问题的选项只有 AWS、GCP 和 Azure。"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/3b\/0a\/3bbd113746c9c1c1dbee9a393341150a.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"云迁移可能带来的另一个问题：企业能省多少钱？我认为，价格战从来都不重要，因为"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Co-opetition_(book","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"没人愿意开打"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"。处在相当稳定的寡头垄断地位很舒适，如果我是云计算提供商，也不会去改变现状。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2030 年的云计算"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"转向云计算的历程，我们已经走了大约 10 年。虽然我们构建软件的方式已经有所改变，但我认为现在仍处于起步阶段。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"重大变革通常分两个阶段发生。当一些新技术出现时，人们会用最简单的方法来使用，让它们保留现有世界的概念模型。当我们开始重新审视消费模式时，真正的转变才会发生，因为新世界为创造价值开辟了道路。比如，苹果公司开始在网上销售音乐时，我们消费音乐的方式并未发生重大变化。但在像 Spotify 这样的提供商意识到所有权不再重要的时候，真正的改变发生了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"从这个角度来看，过去的 10~15 年看起来有点像一种愚蠢的“提升和转移”。我们只是把计算机放在云端，这远远不够。我们可以把注意力集中在构建应用程序代码上，而不是担心底层的基础设施。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.infoq.cn\/resource\/image\/23\/51\/23ef9636abc9e5d4cf905def06205051.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/twitter.com\/irvinebroque\/status\/1461002308209152009","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"大多数开发者都不与云计算提供商进行交互"}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"，这一点我并不会感到意外。另外一个令人兴奋的领域是事务型数据库。但我认为即将到来的最大变化是，软件提供商将会越来越多地运行客户代码。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这个想法不新颖——2007 年Heroku 发布，2014 年 AWS Lambda 发布。Kubernetes 在过去的几年中一直很有意思，这仍然是一种必然的趋势：走向一个完全“无服务器”的世界。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"现在，云端中的计算机利用率低得离谱，我猜测 CPU 平均利用率大概只有 10%。有一种观点认为云计算提供商需要在云上运行软件，他们必须自己使用才能推进云的采用。不过，他们已经有了一堆内部的东西可以交付。市场成熟后，他们可以讲精力集中在自己优势最大的领域。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":5},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一些预测"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"云计算市场的收入将增长到每年 10000 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