工廠的重組：是時候給軟件工程師提供更多的工具

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"本文最初發表於作者個人網站，經原作者 Erik Bernhardsson 授權，InfoQ 中文站翻譯並分享。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在開發人員中流行的態度是，抱怨我們的工具和東西有多爛。或許我是個樂觀主義者，因爲我的觀點完全相反！1999 年，我得到了第一個軟件工程師的工作，在過去的二十年裏，我見證了軟件工程的變化，使我們的工作效率提高了好幾個數量級。僅舉一些我曾經做過或者接近做過的事情的例子："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"Spotify 使用 C++ 構建了一套完整的 P2P 架構，用於向聽衆分發流媒體音樂，而這在今天已經是一個微不足道的問題（將數據放在 CDN 上）。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"過去，我常常編寫自定義的 mapreduce 作業，以獲取基本的統計數據，然後等上幾個小時才能完成。現在，這些是數據倉庫中的 SQL 查詢，只需幾秒鐘就能運行。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"以前我開過一家網店，用了一個星期才實現信用卡支付。而現在用 Stripe，15 分鐘就可以搞定。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"更不用說開發過程中的變化了："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在這個行業中，單元測試是非常罕見的：我第一次遇到它是在 2006 年穀歌工作時。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在 git 剛剛出現時，git-flow 是盛行的工作流，很多和我一起工作的開發人員都會花很多時間（比如 20~30%）來重新構建基礎。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"CI 系統很脆弱，CD 基本上不存在，部署是可怕的手工事務。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"這些只是例子——我可以說上一整天。正如關於軟件生產力的經典論文《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/No_Silver_Bullet","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"沒有銀彈"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"No Silver Bullet"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"），這些東西本身並沒有什麼顯著的進步。但生產率的增長是累加的，並且是以對數尺度累加起來的，也就是說，當你的時間尺度是幾十年的時候，我們看到的將是數量級的增長，這不是沒有道理的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"（注意：在本文中，我將使用“工具”一詞來指代所有種類的東西：框架、庫、開發流程、基礎設施。）"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對軟件永無止境的需求"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"對於世界有一種極爲粗略的分類："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"有些東西有很好的軟件。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"有些東西有平庸的軟件。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"有些東西沒有軟件。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"到目前爲止，這一點已經很明顯了，因此我繼續說下去：如果有一種能力，能夠在零成本的條件下，瞬間生產出無限量的軟件，那麼最後兩種分類將不再存在。平庸的軟件之所以存在，是因爲有些人沒有能力僱傭更好的工程師，或者他們沒有時間，或者其他什麼原因。沒有軟件的東西……算是萬能的嗎？我是說，爲什麼你的鞋子裏沒有內置計步器？爲什麼會計裏的標記還能生成 PDF 發票，並通過電子郵件發送給客戶？怎麼不……我還能說更多。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"很明顯，我們一直在向這個方向努力，而我的觀點是，仍然有很多東西可以使用軟件。那爲什麼還沒有發生呢？由於一些人做出經濟決策，他們"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/erikbern.com\/2020\/03\/10\/never-attribute-to-stupidity-that-which-is-adequately-explained-by-opportunity-cost.html","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"認爲構建這些軟件的成本太高"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"。僱傭工程師、培訓工程師以及把事情做好，都需要金錢和時間。那麼，我們如何看待這種成本呢？"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"軟件工程師的供求關係"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"現在回到我的觀點，即軟件工程師的生產率會隨着時間而提高。用經濟學術語來說，這意味着單位時間內的產出價值將增加。就需求而言，這意味着構建軟件的成本降低了。過去需要 1000 個小時才能完成的事情，現在需要 100 個小時就能完成。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"如果需求是固定的，那就意味着大規模失業和工程師工資的降低，但需求並不是固定的！正如我前面所暗示的那樣，構建軟件的成本降低意味着新的機會的出現。以前，構建你的小工具不值得花費 1000 個小時的工程努力，但花費 100 個小時還是值得的。這裏面存在着巨大的潛在需求。你甚至可以支付工程師更多的時薪。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"這些情況可以同時發生："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"開發更多的軟件。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"爲軟件工程師加薪。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"軟件工程師的數量越來越多。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"這可能有悖於直覺，因此值得拿它和固定需求進行比較。假設發明了某種工藝，使紙尿褲工廠的產量提高了 10%（保持所有成本不變），並且這項發明可以立即提供給所有紙尿褲製造商。結果會是什麼呢？紙尿褲市場將出現暫時性的供過於求，市場將趨於一個新的平衡點，即供應量萎縮以滿足需求。在這個過程中，一些工廠將會關閉，紙尿褲的價格也將會下降。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"軟件工程師的不同之處在於，當成本下降時，需求就會增長。以前，你阿姨的牙科診所沒有網站，但現在值得擁有一套在線預約系統。你孩子所在的學校突然出現了一個應用程序，可以向家長髮送更新的信息。我不知道——我的觀點是，隨着價格的下降，會有更多的需求出現。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"這種情況不僅發生在整個經濟領域，也可能發生在微觀尺度上。如果你有一個數據科學家團隊，而你引入了一個工具，使當時的生產力提高了 2 倍？很好。你只是增加了一倍的投資回報率，你應該去僱傭更多的人。我從來沒有見過一個公司的數據科學家會沒有工作了：總是有更多的東西需要分析。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"這種情況會一直持續下去嗎？我想在某種終極狀態下，我們會遇到類似奇點的東西，軟件本身製造軟件的速度如此之快，以至於需求不能隨着供應而增長。在這個時候，我會爲軟件工程師的失業擔憂。但是我想，在未來的幾十年中，我們會看到越來越多的軟件工程師出現在我們的視野中。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何成爲軟件工程師"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"很明顯，軟件作爲一個領域的發展和薪資的增長，本身就吸引了更多的人進入，但是我認爲還有一件事在發生。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"幾十年前，軟件工程非常困難，因爲你必須從頭開始構建一切，並解決所有這些基礎問題。你需要存儲空間來爲 100 萬併發用戶提供服務？閱讀關於一致哈希算法，CAP 定理，CRDTs 之類的論文，捲起袖子，準備好迎接 10 萬行硬核 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