芯片破壁者（十八）：CPU戰爭三十年

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"20世紀八十年代初，半導體行業看似穩定，卻在醞釀一場前所未有的變化。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當時，政府與軍事訂單中的大型機依舊是市場主流，日本公司憑藉存儲器如日中天。芯片的日子似乎一片平靜。但在太平洋東岸的硅谷，有一些人卻在準備把半導體行業整張桌子掀掉。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果從最終的市場結果來看，這場行動可以被簡單定義爲微型計算機興起，大型計算機衰落。但在PC進入千家萬戶的鉅變最終達成前，各路人馬還需要做很多準備。比如微型存儲、操作系統、顯示設備、軟件開發等等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在芯片領域，最關鍵的準備就是微型處理器——也就是今天人盡皆知，每家都有，並且成爲國際科技博弈核心的——CPU。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"CPU這個如今被認爲是芯片產業珠穆朗瑪的存在，當然不是一朝建成的。在它的崛起與成型中，有相當多的技術與產業必然性，也充滿了商場上兵不厭詐的征伐。回看CPU與家用計算機的歷史紛爭，對於理解今天的芯片產業規則至關重要。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而這一切，要從IBM籌劃進入微型計算機市場說起。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如今IBM已經退出了PC市場，但長期以來人們在談論PC時，會認爲是IBM奠定了它的基本形態與產業規律。與蘋果的封閉戰略不同，80年代初的IBM破天荒地打算用開放生態與產業合作的方式完成PC生產。而當時硅谷能夠提供微型處理器的最佳選擇，就是諾伊斯、摩爾、格魯夫從仙童出走後創立的英特爾。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"早在1971年，英特爾就製造了第一款4位處理器4004，隨後不斷進化，到1978年已經發布了16位處理器8086。1981年，藍色巨人IBM選擇將8086衍生出的8088作爲自身產品的處理器，這在後來被稱爲“英特爾有史以來最偉大的勝利”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/18/18af19689ddce4464d47a6c90961b248.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當時參與這個選擇的所有人可能都不會想到，一個行業標準就此誕生，一場美國反超日本的半導體戰爭宣告打響，一個PC和互聯網支撐的時代隨之到來。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"英特爾和AMD的CPU，支撐了整個信息化革命，支撐了我們每個人對電腦和網絡的認知，改變了人類的工作效率和信息獲取方式。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"也隨着那個選擇，英特爾和AMD兩家公司開始了30年的征戰。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"“文泰來”傳奇"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2016年，中國科技界曾經熱議一個名叫“文泰來”聯盟的東西。這名字聽上去像一家南方老字號或者一位廣東武術家，但其實是兩家硅谷老字號——也就是微軟的Windows操作系統+英特爾CPU組成的Wintel聯盟。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"聯盟的起因，還是IBM在80年代初準備進軍微型機市場。當時蘋果已經與摩托羅拉的CPU合作，取得了先發優勢。IBM想要後發先至，就必須拿出點出人意料的東西。IBM的選擇是利用生態合作的力量，讓自身的微型機產業充分開放，各家公司都可以拿出自身擅長的東西加入這個市場，以聯盟的方式搶佔蘋果的市場份額。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/83/830988d9a861878b340bea5d37fbd562.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這個舉措之下，兩家公司馬上開始了表演。首先是坐擁當時微處理器最前沿與核心技術的英特爾，終於在8086時代找到了IBM這個商業化大靠山。並且由於IBM的支持和開放態度，大量軟硬件企業都來兼容適配英特爾的架構，這也導致英特爾在此後一舉成爲行業龍頭。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"差不多同一時間，IBM選擇了微軟來爲微型機提供操作系統。如果說英特爾的中選有充沛的技術必然性，那麼微軟的上位在當時還頗有僥倖。IBM原本打算自己開發系統，但被微軟方面巧妙說服了。由於開發時間緊迫，微軟還購買了另一個操作系統QDOS的使用權來加速開發，最終給IBM帶來了Microsoft DOS。這段歷史也成爲微軟發展的最大轉折點。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"說回到英特爾的CPU。之所以英特爾能不斷取得成功，與當時IBM-英特爾-微軟合作架構有重要關係。首先IBM的開放策略真的非常開放，只提標準需求，不向下游合作方要求技術捆綁。這導致英特爾的CPU和計算架構變成了行業標準，但IBM卻僅僅是一家主機廠商。雖然IBM也進行了一系列自主研發，但在底層技術中的突破始終不太順利。最終結果是IBM的選擇培養起了“文泰來”聯盟兩大怪獸，但其PC市場卻率先衰落了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/a4/a4bd2257f1d9d5f314cc262bf5ff1b28.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":null,"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"再一個就是“文泰來”聯盟本身的價值。英特爾與微軟，一個在硬件一個在軟件，看似各自爲政，但卻從南北兩側卡死了整個PC產業。從最開始同爲IBM供應商，到後來兩家內部達成了驚人的默契。比如英特爾的CPU更貴，微軟就把Windows降價促銷搞捆綁銷售；微軟不斷推出更加消耗內存的操作系統與軟件，英特爾就把內存加大適配系統。兩家的策略就是高度互補，讓消費者和PC廠商選擇一家的同時也必須選擇另一家，最終導致80、90年代PC崛起中出現了“雙寡頭”格局，一度佔據PC市場90%以上的份額。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"文泰來聯盟的意義是多方面且富有歷史爭議的，有人說其扼殺了PC市場的競爭，有人說他們聯手才把PC推向全世界。但不管怎麼說，“文泰來”聯盟給PC行業快速打造了一個標準化底座，各個軟硬件廠商與開發者得以無障礙進入這一新興市場。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在英特爾的核心技術與文泰來聯盟的商業手腕雙加持下，CPU很快成爲了芯片產業的核心。而它影響最深遠的副產品，就是x86架構。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"x86，統治與紛爭"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"美國對中國不斷加碼科技封鎖之後，到底哪個影響最嚴重？如果這個問題在街頭訪問，受訪者大概率會脫口而出是手機芯片，但如果問科技業內人士，回答很可能是x86。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"英特爾獲得IBM訂單，結成文泰來聯盟，給芯片產業內帶來的最大影響是英特爾的x86架構開始成爲行業默認的標準。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而這件事其實並不完全靠英特爾的推動。事實上，IBM在發放處理器訂單時，已經開始提防英特爾會趁機做大，攜CPU以自重。於是標準動作是找到第二供應商，於是同樣從仙童走出來的AMD就成爲了一個很好的選擇。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"與英特爾是諾伊斯、摩爾這些“八叛逆”核心人物創建不同，AMD的創始人桑德斯是仙童銷售部出身。核心技術和產業洞察在當時不是AMD的強項，但靈活的市場手段和獲取訂單的決心，讓AMD的基因裏攜帶着靈活與韌性。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作爲IBM-PC的CPU第二供應商，AMD深知與第一供應商英特爾的關係非常微妙。如果真的不斷推出競爭產品，只會以弱攻強，並且造成供應商之間的內耗。於是在IBM推動下，AMD也開始兼容英特爾的x86架構，推出了大量作爲英特爾追隨與候補的產品。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而這個決定，也讓英特爾從8086時代開始使用的x86架構不再是英特爾自己的技術，而變成了行業標準。由x86架構確定的CPU使用範疇與升級方法，也不斷向後兼容，吸引更多軟硬件廠商加入生態，最終成爲整個信息時代的底層計算架構。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今天絕大多數的PC、服務器、數據中心、超級計算機都沿用x86架構，支撐着國家與社會的計算。這也是爲什麼美國一旦發起芯片封鎖，x86是最嚴重的問題之一。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"8086發佈時，英特爾的廣告語是：“開啓了一個時代”。事實上大量科技產品都會用類似的表達，非常套路。然而8086雖然很快過去，但其使用的x86架構，卻如實開啓了一個統治力無比強大的時代。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是x86的開放性和生態性是一把雙刃劍，其好處在於讓英特爾立於不敗之地，可以一次次碾壓妄圖發起的挑戰；但另一方面x86也容納了衆多公司進入其內部，引發了x86體系內無窮的競爭。圍繞CPU這個利益制高點，英特爾和AMD隨後展開了x86架構內長達三十年的近身肉搏，這可能也是x86誕生之初萬沒想到的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/ae/aeae0735b87c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