民调不靠谱？人工智能预测拜登获胜

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"预测美国大选，人工智能会比民调更准确吗？"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"本文最初发表于 venturebeat，由 InfoQ 中文站翻译并分享。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"预测美国 2020 年总统大选结果的一些民调似乎并没有实现准确的猜测。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"聚合网站 RealClearPolitics 的数据显示，前副总统拜登比现任总统特朗普领先 7 个百分点，而 FiveThirtyEight 的数据显示，拜登在全国平均至少领先 8 个百分点。实际上，这场大选更加激烈。例如，在佛罗里达州，FiveThirtyEight 显示拜登以 2.5 个百分点的领先优势赢得胜利，但特朗普却在迈阿密 - 戴德县获得了意想不到的支持。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"民意调查并非一门完美的科学。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2016 年大选前的报告显示，希拉里在全国领先，在威斯康星州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州等州的竞争更为激烈。但特朗普最终获得了赢得大选所需的 270 张选举人票。一份来自美国民意研究协会（American Association for Public Opinion Research）的报告得出结论，称州一级的民调“低估了特朗普在上中西部地区的支持率”，预测人士指出，这些州缺乏高质量的民调数据。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}