比特幣暴漲後：買？賣？還是再等等？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"多年來，我一直關注比特幣走勢，也寫了不少評論性的文章。結合受衆的關注重點與關注程度，我們往往可以比較準確地判斷目前正處於市場週期中的哪個階段。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"之前在大多數情況下，朋友或者同事聚會時，基本不會有人想到要聊比特幣。由於我的習慣，有點新動向，我就喜歡把話題往比特幣上引，所以估計朋友們也有點怕在我面前提起這個敏感的字眼。但當比特幣價格一路上漲時，大家就會原諒我，主動跟我討論比特幣，詢問我要不要買、該買多少。如果價格下跌，人們則慌張地提出自己要不要賣、何時離場最科學。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"任何有經驗的交易者和投資者都會發現，這種漲買跌拋的做法並不正確。事實上，我們應該在感覺不該買時買進（特別是市場信心低下且新聞報道偏向負面時），並按照自己的判斷進行出售。這一切都未必要跟當前價位直接相關。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但人類天生有趨利避害的本能，所以很難做到這麼更改的判斷。於是乎，最簡單的“低買高賣”原則反而成了投資行爲中最難以落實的理念，無數人也因此而傾家蕩產。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/wechat\/images\/01\/01c17ce6e2b53d353235024def4d0f96.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1 月 7 日，比特幣價格首次飆升至 4 萬美元，將加密貨幣的總市值推高至 1 萬億美元以上。面對比特幣的暴漲，很多朋友不淡定了——還沒買過的人問我怎麼買，已經買過的人問我要不要賣。實際上，其他研究比特幣趨勢的同事也遇到了類似的情況。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"比特幣走上新聞頭條，價格一路上漲，各個機構都在貪婪地操作。但是，散戶們還是感到無所適從。他們還在猶豫、在懷疑，在等着像我這樣的人幫他們做出決定。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這份責任太過沉重，我沒辦法給出確切的結論。但我很樂意與大家一起討論這些選項，向各位分享我自己的看法——這也正是本文的意義所在。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所以，在回答要不要買比特幣、或者要不要在當下這個歷史價格高位上賣出的問題之前，我們先考慮以下幾點。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我還沒有比特幣，但正考慮。該買嗎？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"過去幾年裏，大家可能已經無數次陷入過“在這場擊鼓傳花的遊戲裏，我會不會成爲最後一個接盤俠”的沉思。關鍵是，你行動了嗎？當時行動的話，真的太晚了嗎？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"回顧過去再追悔莫及沒有任何意義。首先請大家放心，每個投資過比特幣的傢伙現在都希望自己能買得再早點、再多點，連我自己也是這樣。但這都是種無意義的幻想，唯一的作用就是摧毀我們的信心。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"例如，在我自己真正投身於比特幣交易時，其價格已經漲到接近 1000 美元。如果我能在 2013 年到 2014 年間，比特幣只有 100 美元左右時進場就好了，但最終我沒有，因爲當時我還沒做好心理準備。每每想到，我都覺得焦躁不已。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這個錯誤帶來了高昂的成本，而我用了三、四年的時間才真正調整好，並意識到每個人都會面臨這樣的難題，所以沒必要爲此浪費精力。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"結果就是，我在價格高位時進場，但現在回看起來又算是絕對的低位。很簡單，如果當下有個用 1000 美元的單價購買比特幣的機會，你會抓住嗎？當然會，這簡直是廢話。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所以再換個思路：如果你可以準確判斷比特幣在未來 12 個月內的交易價格會上漲到 10 萬美元，那你現在願意用 31000 美元買進嗎？有了這樣確切的保證，你可能會。但問題是沒人能給出這樣的保證。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所以，無論是我、分析師們乃至任何其他人都一樣，需要根據自己的研究與判斷做出選擇，別無他法。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所以重點在於，任何時候進場都不會太晚，只是當前價位有所不同。我很贊同幾位同事的觀點：比特幣沒有峯值，法定貨幣沒有低谷。任何對當前金融體系有所瞭解的朋友，相信都能體會到這句簡單評判背後蘊藏的深刻含義。而且請別忘了，美國現有使用的法定貨幣系統只有區區 49 年的歷史。比特幣同樣是一項社會實驗，甚至比我本人還要年輕。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當然，我提供的只是一些背景信息，希望幫助大家打破慣性思維的束縛。究竟如何選擇，還是在你自己。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"以我自己爲例，我每天都會買進更多比特幣，而且從來沒有將其變現。但我做出的決定只符合我自己的財務狀況、對比特幣價值的判斷、投資目標以及未來規劃，絕不一定就適合你。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"於是新的問題來了：你在銀行中是否有着大筆儲蓄，而且其價值正隨着通貨膨脹與利率下調而有所萎縮？如果是，那麼請思考這種趨勢未來可能產生的影響，然後評估你的風險承受能力。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當然，風險本身也是主觀而複雜的。面對全球經濟壓力之下各國政府紛紛增發貨幣的基本面，有些人認爲持有現金的風險開始高於持有比特幣，更有甚者認爲持有黃金都存在風險——因爲多國政府都曾有過在金融動盪時期全面收繳黃金的行爲。那這種情況會再次出現嗎？未必，但也有可能，這就是風險。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果判斷錯了，你能在多大程度上承擔損失？你打算如何操作比特幣？如果無法擺脫法定貨幣，還是想投投快線賺點快錢？或者說二者兼而有之？你希望參與到這波浪潮中來嗎？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而回答這一切問題的關鍵，在於另一個問題：你的目標是什麼？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"明確了目標，才能理解一切。我們無法準確預言未來，對一切未至結果的預測，都與你自己的信念相關。還是那句話，這件事靠不得別人，只能獨力完成。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但我還要再加上一點。比特幣以往很難進行“無腦”購買、持有和出售，人們甚至無法判斷其是否合法。但情況正在快速變化，而且比特幣生態每天都在不斷改善。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在大多數國家 \/ 地區，比特幣已經具有合法性，配備清晰的稅收框架，而且與互聯網上的其他商品一樣易於買賣。因此入門門檻已經不再是問題，剩下的就只有你自己的預期目標與心理障礙。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"總而言之，你要選擇是否接受它，心態上的這道坎纔是大家需要克服的最終難關。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我買比特幣了，現在該賣嗎？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"截至本文撰稿時，比特幣已經處於歷史最高價位區間。因此無論你之前是多少錢買進的，現在賣掉都能賺錢（以法定貨幣計算）。所以，恭喜各位。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但做判斷沒這麼簡單，對吧？我們要不要馬上變現、落袋爲安，還是繼續持有，堅信哪怕有所波動，比特幣未來還能衝上新高？正確答案到底是什麼？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"同樣，這一切都將取決於你的實際目標。如果想消費了，那就安心賣掉並享受生活，這沒什麼不好。而且比特幣的價格本來就波動很大，過一段時間趁低價位買進也是個好選擇。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但話又說回來，你知道的套路，我知道、大家也都知道。所以如果你真的很需要一筆現金來改善生活或者消除壓力，那就賣，沒必要糾結。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但也有不少朋友不需要現金，而且覺得持有比特幣是件很酷的事兒，價格還有可能再竄一波。這時候大家不僅沒必要拋售，反而可以適當再補補倉。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但無論如何，只要已經身在局中，你就已經佔得優勢。因爲你可以隨時選擇賣出先賺一筆，再選擇價格低點重新進入。這也是最符合邏輯的收益最大化策略。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"很多人沒意識到持有比特幣本身會帶來利息，所以最好別優先使用比特幣付款。目前，大多數錢包和交易所都提供標準利率配置，這裏建議大家定期查看 Blockchain.com 和 Luno 發佈的信息，其日複利與月複利年化計算分別爲 4.4% 與 4%。按月計息的優點在於用戶友好性高，更適合新手比特幣玩家。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但你也有其他選擇。例如，Nexo、Celsius 等提供更高利率，日複利率年化高達 12%，同時提供高達 1 億美元的保費儲備（大多數銀行都提供不了這種水平的擔保）。更重要的是，只要你能證明自己的償還能力，就可以隨時借用比特幣資產。我們可能仍然要依靠銀行獲取各類支付渠道，但儲蓄和借貸問題已經可以通過比特幣網絡解決了。這將是一種觀念上的重大轉變。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"本文的內容不可能面面俱到，你還有更多選擇。但在我看來，無論你的實際目標如何，以上幾個核心選項都基本可以滿足需求。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"然而，究竟如何操作，仍然取決於你自己。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"別忘了風險"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在貪婪情緒高漲的時候，人們似乎會忘了一些風險。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"風險投資機構 Eden Block 合夥人 O’Riordan 指出了比特幣的兩大長期風險：首先，如果交易費用的增長不足以彌補比特幣發行量的不斷減少，那麼其粗糙的共識治理機制可能出現協議安全預算方面的問題。其次，比特幣制度化的風險阻礙了不可靠的基礎層。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“常被忽略的一個事情是，每一個新的價格里程碑都會解鎖一個新的、更大類別的機構投資者來購買資產，這將減輕賣方壓力。”O’Riordan 表示，雖然短期內，比特幣作爲一種不受主權審查的美元對沖工具，其價值支撐正在日益增強，但比特幣的波動性不會很快消失，預計未來幾年那些賺錢的人會帶來很大的波動性。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"無論何時，高收益都意味着高風險。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"注意：本文不構成任何投資建議，加密貨幣投資風險高，投資者需謹慎。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文鏈接"},{"type":"text","text":"："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/medium.com\/original-crypto-guy\/bitcoin-buy-sell-or-hodl-fa19023c98b6","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/medium.com\/original-crypto-guy\/bitcoin-buy-sell-or-hodl-fa19023c98b6"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}