碎碎念之「创造力可能是新的生产力」

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"「科学技术是第一生产力」这个论断在我们国家深入人心，也引领和见证了国家从生产力匮乏的年代，走到了生产力丰富的年代。这条路走了几十年，那么未来的路呢？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"国家、社会层面的事情太大，今天想说一些和我们切身相关的事。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"生产力富足改变工作价值","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不管我们是领导一个团队，还是领导一家公司，在团队或者公司规模扩张的时候，常见的做法都是，找人来接手我们之前自己手头上做的某些事情。这样我们才能专注于对自己来说价值更高的事情，比如产生和衡量产品创意、思考公司的未来。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"从某种意义上，人类运用科学技术去提高生产力，也是在做同样的事，只是在找机器来做。机器与人相比，更精确、更不容易出错，规模化之后成本更低。随着科学技术的进步，越来越多的工作已经从人类手里交给了算法、机器人。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"人类作为一个群体，在不断解放自己的精神和身体精力，从事越来越高级别的工作","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。但这对个体来说，未必是一件好事。我们接受的教育、掌握的技能，如果是按照上一个时代的思路来安排，显然不符合未来需要。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"靠创造力吃饭，在生产力匮乏的年代是需要勇气和信仰的。那种辛苦的简单重复的工作，是社会所需要的，从职业的角度要安全得多。那个年代流行的口号是，学好数理化，走遍天下都不怕。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"随着科学技术的进步，生产力水平逐步进入了富足阶段，人类用技术从钢铁和石英中开采出了巨大的生产力。实际上我们国家作为世界工厂，很长一段时间，是抓住了全世界生产力从匮乏到富足的尾巴，用低廉的人力成本承担了相对低端的产业链环节。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"资本对效率的追求是无情的，当欧美工人不够便宜的时候，低价值工作就会向人力成本更低的地区流动，亚洲四小龙、中国、越南、印度……。当机器和算法足够便宜的时候，所有人类迟早都要靠边站。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"创造力是值得关注的生产力","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不管从世界范围来看，还是从中国来看，生产力必然是日益丰富的。那么，我们思考职业规划还是子女教育，就必须认识到，什么是未来的稀缺资源。除了科学技术之外，创造力是值得关注的。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"任何事物不再稀缺之后，都会变成容易获得的标准化资源，生产力也是如此。当人类用科学技术，特别是近年来的人工智能算法，把生产力成本降到足够低之后。","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"用生产力来干什么，就是更有价值的问题了。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我们需要关注诸如下面这类问题：","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何理解人类的情感需求？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何设计更好的产品？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何创造性地去解决问题？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何从眼前的问题里发现机会？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何让一群人能一起作出好决定？","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"等等","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人类的终极目标是更幸福，而不只是更富裕。物质上的追求终究是有尽头的，人类的寿命越来越长，拥有高质量的生活体验，长寿才有意义。","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"用创造力带给人类更丰富的体验，是值得长期投资的事业","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"某种意义上，创造力是一种更高级的生产力，","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"科学技术让人类更好地做事，创造力让人类做更好的事","attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"生产力的极度富足，让创造力的解放成为可能。","attrs":{}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/","title":""},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Open AI 的 DALL·E 项目","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"text","text":"，已经可以从一段文本自动设计出图片了。并不是会画画就等同于有创造力。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我们需要认真思考什么是创造力，我们自己和孩子们应该如何培养。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"未来已来，本文未完待续。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}