中芯国际 2020 年 Q4 财报：业绩抢眼股价却大跌，国产“芯”路在何方？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"2 月 4 日晚，中芯国际披露 2020 年度第四季度业绩快报。财报数据显示，2020 年第四季度，公司净利润为 12.52 亿元，同比增长 93.5% ，营业收入 66.71 亿元，同比增长 10.3% 。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"受益于消费电子、信息通讯等行业需求强劲，全球芯片用量上涨，晶圆代工行业产能整体紧张，中芯国际全年营收实现增长。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"整体看来，中芯国际 Q4 财报数据表现依然可圈可点，并没有想象中那么糟糕。然而由于此前连续 22 天的大量资金涌入和局部高估，中芯国际今日开盘后股价大跌。截止发稿，下跌幅度已达6.7%，单股报价25.5元。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"业绩向好但股市的表现却并不那么乐观，中芯国际眼下的道路充满了不确定性。但事实上，如果将时间线拉长来看，中芯国际长期发展的基本面，并没有因为这一份季度报的发布而改变太多。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"持续布局成熟制程助力长跑"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"对比中芯国际 Q4 季报和以往财报数据发现，目前中芯国际核心收入主要来源于 28nm 以上的成熟制程，中芯国际 90% 以上的营收都主要源自于此。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"就目前来看，全球半导体制程工艺的发展分为先进制程和成熟制程两类。其中，28nm 以上的属于成熟制程，28nm 以下的则大多被归类至先进制程。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"单纯从工业成本角度考虑，由于先进制程在上游的 IC 设计、制造设备配备等方面所需耗费的成本越来越高，最终导致采用该先进制程的芯片的成本也较高，但市场的需求量相对较小，综合下来盈利能力反而不如成熟制程。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"反观成熟制程技术，出于稳定、安全、性价比等方面的因素考虑，相对成熟的制程技术更容易得到客户的接纳，而这也能让专注于这一方面制程技术研发运用的企业在经营管理方面得到一个更加明确的可预期性。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"为满足客户需求，中芯国际预计 2021 年资本开支 43 亿美元，其中大部分将用于成熟制程工艺的扩产，小部分用于先进工艺。预计 2021 年成熟 12 寸产线扩产 1 万片，成熟 8 寸产线扩产不少于 4.5 万片。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"“成熟制程的布局有利于稳固中芯国际营收增长，能够为后续持续的研发投入储备足够的资金，利好长期发展。”有网友就此发表评论称。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"受益于成熟制程在技术成本以及市场需求上的优势，中芯国际短期的业绩增长并不会出现大幅度的变动。更何况，目前中芯国际已经掌握了成熟的 14nm 稳定量产工艺，并且也达到了业界水准。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"上月中旬，在中芯国际内部的蒋梁之争逐渐平息之后，蒋尚义出席了第二届中国芯创年会，其发言表示：“14nm制程已经能满足生活中大部分所用，只有电子级消费产品才需要高端芯片制程工艺，中芯国际的实力不可小觑。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"而在另一方面，在摩尔定律已经接近物理极限的情况之下，先进制程在朝着更加低nm级别演进的空间也越来越小，这在拉低了整个芯片行业发展速度的同时，也为整个产业链上的后进企业们留下了追赶的余地。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"“最先进的硅工艺运用的领域范畴并不多，这给我们填补多元化市场带来优势。”发言中，蒋尚义如此表示。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"受制于短期出口管制的影响，中芯国际面临不确定性导致股价波动的情况在所难免，但长远来看，万物互联时代，半导体推动各行业创新和发展的脚步不会停滞，尤其是在举国体制和新基建等产业政策的扶持之下，国内半导体产业的发展前景依然可期。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"被卡脖子的晶圆代工巨人"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"自 2019 年正式退出美股市场之后，在本次财报发布前的 1  月 29 日，中芯国际还正式宣布了退出美国 OTCQX 市场营运者的美国场外交易。这意味着，美国公民想要在本国通过合法渠道购买中芯国际的股票，这已经完全不可能了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"但在另一方面，当美股市场将中芯国际狠狠地关在门外的同时，另外一扇大门也正在为中芯国际而打开 —— 这一扇门正是有着占全球半导体需求约 60% 的中国市场，有着庞大的内生需求和高涨的国民热情，长远来看潜力无穷。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"但是，眼下门内正在面临的客观挑战却是：国内半导体产业在尖端技术、核心生产设备自给等方面自给能力低下，一旦被外部力量卡住了脖子，短期内想要取得发展突破的希望依然渺茫。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"一个鲜明的例子是，因为出口管制的限制，中芯国际于 2018 年 4 月份向荷兰半导体制造设备供应商阿斯麦尔（ASML）订购的 EUV 光刻机至今仍然没能到货。如果按照原来的预期，这一光刻机在  2020 年的时候就该正式安装了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"受制于 EUV 光刻机的迟迟未能到货，中芯国际在先进制程领域的工艺水平迟迟未能得到快速推进。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"而在去年 12 月，美国商务部工业和安全局更是进一步将中芯国际列入实体清单，其面临的短期不确定依然在进一步提升。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"据公开数据显示，一台 ASML 的 EUV 光刻机零部件总数超过 10w 多颗，想要将这些零部件制造出来并且精密地组装到一起，同时保障这些零件在运行的时候不出现工程事故，这将会是一件繁复无比的事情。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在此前的采访中，有采访对象曾经用修建公路的例子类比了芯片产品的制造。“造一个芯片，相当于是把上海市所有的公交道路设施都装进一个指甲盖大小的硅片当中，其中的复杂度可想而知。”而要自己制造一台能够生产出这类芯片的机器设备，这中间更是难上加难。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"就目前中芯国际因为 ASML 的 EUV 光刻机忽然被卡住脖子的情况来看，中芯国际如果想完全依靠国内的工业水平以及芯片技术能力实现完全自研自给，这几乎是一件难以实现的事情。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"事实上，这不仅仅是中芯国际或者国内短期无法做到的，放眼世界上任何一家芯片产业相关企业及其所在国，如果忽然遇到不可抗力导致多年合作的供应链伙伴迟迟不肯发货这样的事故，想要短期内依靠自身力量实现自研自给，这同样也几乎是不可能实现的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"芯片产业的超高复杂程度，使得其本身就成为了一个具有全球垄断性质的行业。在这个行业中，以荷兰 ASML 、日本尼康、佳能以及国内上海微电子为代表的少数几家企业，牢牢占据最上游的设备研发领域。再往下是以苹果、三星、高通、英特尔、海思等为代表的芯片设计类企业。随后到了以台积电、格罗方德、联电等为代表的代工制造企业。以及再往下的封测及下游应用类企业。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在这整个的产业链当中，每个环节做得最出色的企业往往只局限于自己所在的环节，在整个产业链向上或者向下的环节中都相对涉猎较少，彼此之间的发展以及产品实现高度依赖上下游企业。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"可以说，在芯片制造环节，即使是目前占据了行业内 50% 以上芯片代工市场份额的台积电，如果其忽然没有了上游的芯片制造设备厂商供货，短期业务运转必然也将受到严重伤害。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"如今迫于美国出口管制政策而迟迟拿不到 EUV 光刻机的中芯国际，仿佛因此成为了一个被某双大手掐住脖颈的巨人。在巨人与双手的力量博弈之间，虽然双手并没那么渴望制服或者一时也制服不了巨人，但是巨人也因此被搅扰得方寸大乱。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"守着偌大的国内市场，未来更是有望追上 5G 、智能汽车等新兴技术带来的增量市场机会，但是巨人却一时之间不知道如何逐一抓起。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"必然走上的自主可控之路"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"短期看来，被卡住脖颈的现状确实不容乐观，对于商业运作或者股市估值的变动自然也存在着直接的影响。但是，从长期视角来看，情况或许没那么悲观。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"事实上，没有哪一家企业会愿意一直受制于人，而中芯国际作为全球晶圆代工市场的前五成员，同时也代表了大陆晶圆代工的最高水平，被寄予了国产半导体行业发展崛起的殷殷厚望，自然也不愿意长期受制于此。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"2019 年 10 月，国家大基金二期注册成立，注册资本 2041.5 亿元，主要由财政部、国开金融、亦庄国投、中国电信、联通资本、中国电子信息产业集团、紫光通信等 27 家实力派企业组织构成重要参股单位，个个来头不小。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"而大基金正式成立并开始启动投资的时候，大基金二期第二家选中投资的企业便是中芯国际。在国家队基金入场支持的情况之下，中芯国际的发展成败，已经不再是最初几个创始股东的事情了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"就在几天前的 1 月 28 日，在工信部发布的全国集成电路标准化技术委员会筹建的公示名单中，包括华为、阿里、腾讯、中芯国际、海思半导体、紫光展锐、清华大学、北京大学、国防科技大学等国内顶尖软硬件企业、高校等90多家企事业单位，共同联手参与了集成电路标准的制定，全国产业界人士团结一致共克时艰的场景，一度使人振奋。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"对于中芯国际而言，最终的结果大致只有三种："}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"第一，被彻底地制服并从此严重受制于制服自己的“双手”，后续所有的行动与权益分配完全听任“双手”发号施令。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"第二，经过一段时间的博弈较量之后，曾经卡脖子的双手逐渐转变为捂手言和的“友谊之手”，双方重新建立起新的对话机制，再次开展合作。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"第三，中芯国际形成了一套完全自主的技术体系，从此彻底摆脱束缚。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"三种可能中，第一种可能是全国产业界都不愿看到的；第二种虽然有些理想主义，但无疑也是最现实可行的；第三种过于极端，需要长久的时间周期考量。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"没有人会精心地去计算并推演这几种可能发生的概率各有多少，但是有一点可以确认的是，在看透了孟晚舟与荣耀被迫剥离事件的真相之后，寻求核心技术的自主可控，已然成为了绝大多数产业界人士内心最真实的呼唤。"}]}]}