移動應用不再是初創企業的好主意

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"本文最初發表於 Medium 博客，經原作者 Lance Ng 授權，InfoQ 中文站翻譯並分享。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動應用從一個 9 歲小孩都會寫的很酷的東西，變成了一個和全球政治纏繞在一起的知識和資本密集型遊戲。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2009 年 2 月，世界各地的媒體都在"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-singapore-iphone-child\/nine-year-old-whiz-kid-writes-iphone-application-idUSTRE5140FI20090205","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"報道"}]},{"type":"text","text":"一位“神童”——來自新加坡的 9 歲男孩 Lim Ding Wen 成爲了全球最年輕的 iPhone 應用開發者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"他開發了一款叫“Doodle Kids”的應用程序，用戶可以用手指在 iPhone 屏幕上作畫。兩週內下載次數超過 4000 次。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"他的父親是當地一家科技公司的首席技術官，而這個男孩從兩歲起就開始玩電腦，這對他起到了幫助作用。七歲的時候，他就已經掌握了六種不同的編程語言。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/singapore\/boy-wonder-grows-up#:~:text=Lim%20Ding%20Wen%20was%20just,clear%20them%20by%20shaking%20it.","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"八年後"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，這位神童發佈了 20 多個免費的智能手機應用，但是他還在玩遊戲。在那時，他正在攻讀信息技術專業的學位，並有雄心壯志要成爲遊戲開發者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"然而，他承認“手機應用市場已經飽和了”，並在嘗試其他涉及新語言和編程電路芯片的項目。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"現在，新冠肺炎疫情爆發拯救了移動應用"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這個神童奇蹟般地說中了。當那篇文章於 2017 年 1 月發表時，移動應用市場確實已經呈現下滑趨勢。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"蘋果應用商店的應用季度增長率從 2016 年第四季度開始首次出現負增長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/e0\/e02d098556572f6d24111a59d1f60216.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從 2015 年第二季度到 2020 年第三季度，蘋果應用商店全球可用移動應用的增長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"類似的趨勢也可以在 Google Play 商店看到，儘管 Android 手機越來越流行，"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2018\/4\/5\/17204074\/apple-number-app-store-record-low-2017-developers-ios","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"開發者們發佈 Android 版 iOS 應用"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，從某種程度上緩解了最初急速下滑之後的下滑。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/43\/430192e6896e5a9014c5867050245fd5.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2015 年第二季度至 2020 年第三季度，Google Play 全球可用移動應用的增長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對我來說，這種趨勢是一種很好的證明。2016 年底，我在 LinkedIn 上發表了一篇題爲《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/mobile-apps-disappear-soon-lance-ng\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動應用很快就會消失"}]},{"type":"text","text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Mobile Apps will Disappear Soon"},{"type":"text","text":"）的文章，暗指市場已經飽和，許多應用將在未來幾年中逐漸淡出或整合。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2018 年 10 月，我在 Medium 上更新並重新發布了這篇文章。這篇文章入了編輯們的法眼，被他們以《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/medium.com\/s\/story\/mobile-apps-will-disappear-soon-4b4e54f46eb8","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動應用的末日即將來臨"}]},{"type":"text","text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The End is Near for Mobile Apps"},{"type":"text","text":"）爲新標題進行了專題報道。這篇文章在網絡上瘋狂傳播，引發了很多抄襲者和徹底的盜版行爲。一位讀者甚至向我提出了"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/medium.com\/@prenezisbell_13570\/i-will-place-a-1000-bet-with-the-author-that-the-market-for-mobile-apps-five-years-from-now-is-at-7f275b7198e5","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"挑戰"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，賭注是 1000 美元，說我會錯。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"命中註定，他也許是靠運氣才贏了這場賭局。直到 2020 新冠型肺炎爆發之前，這些數據都證明了我的觀點，由於這次疫情對身體活動和互動的影響，手機應用程序得到了大幅提升。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"隨着新的應用和下載率的再度提升，許多應用行業人士又一次對未來做出了高度樂觀的預測。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是，這是否意味着，現在正是嘗試移動應用創業理念的好時機？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我不這麼看。大多數在網上博客和行業報告中熱心建議這樣做的人，都是那些通過爲應用發行商提供分析或數字營銷等服務來賺錢的人。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果你正在考慮創建一個應用，我會建議你考慮以下幾點……"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"數字可能具有欺騙性"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"首先，我們必須將對某項經濟活動的增加的興趣與該活動作爲商業活動的經濟可行性區別開來，特別是對於剛起步的初創企業來說！"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"儘管世界上總的應用程序數量在不斷增加，但事實是，正如網站和博客一樣，許多手機應用發佈後，失敗了，然後在很長一段時間裏又"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2018\/4\/5\/17204074\/apple-number-app-store-record-low-2017-developers-ios","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"被丟棄在網上"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，再次被刪除。應用商店中充斥着“殭屍應用”、低質量的應用，以及充斥着廣告的山寨遊戲應用，這使得累積的總數無法準確地反映出應用企業的經濟活力。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"應用行業的支持者還指出，智能手機用戶和應用下載量不斷上升。但是這個統計也有失偏頗，因爲在這些下載量中，"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessofapps.com\/data\/app-statistics\/#2.3","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"佔據多數的是當前的熱門社交、實用和遊戲應用程序"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。即使是免費的，新的應用也往往難以獲得任何關注。付費應用的情況就更糟糕了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“龐大的受衆羣體及其增長潛力創造了令人印象深刻的統計數字，但是……消費者被寵壞了，現在他們期待的是高度相關和真正有價值的體驗。別的什麼都是噪音。”"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"——"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.adjust.com\/resources\/ebooks\/app-trends-2020\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"App Trends 2020"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，Adjust"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"即便是下載了一個應用程序，其用戶留存率也很差。在 2020 年，應用第一天的平均用戶留存率只有 25.2%。也就是說，在下載了你的應用的用戶中，有四分之三的用戶在短短一天後就再也不會使用它了。而在 30 天后，則驟降至 3.5%*。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/liftoff.io\/blog\/out-now-2020-mobile-app-trends-report\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Liftoff 2020 移動應用趨勢報告"}]},{"type":"text","text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Liftoff 2020 Mobile App Trends Report"},{"type":"text","text":"）"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"成本大幅上升"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在短期內，應用市場也已十分成熟。今天，爲了獲得巨大的用戶基礎而競爭和適當地擴大應用的規模，需要大量的資金。建立和維護企業級的 IT 基礎設施需要大量的資金投入，同時持續地投資營銷，以獲得、激活和接觸用戶。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"就基礎設施而言，問問在一家成熟的初創公司工作過、運行面向數百萬用戶的應用程序的技術人員就知道了。所需的技術棧和知識遠遠超出了那些擁有基本編程經驗的程序員所能提供的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/clutch.co\/app-development\/cost-build-mobile-app-survey","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Clutch"}]},{"type":"text","text":"在 2015 年對“12 家領先的移動應用開發公司”進行的調查顯示，開發一款 iPhone 應用，“[成本中位數在 37913 美元到 171405 美元之間，但很可能會攀升到 50 萬美元或更高](https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Did you know? The median cost cost to build a mobile app is between "},{"type":"katexinline","attrs":{"mathString":"37,913 and "}},{"type":"text","text":"171,450.&url=http:\/\/bit.ly\/1Ja7GJB&via=Clutch_co)”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是更爲有趣的是，最大的部分總是“基礎設施”成本（而非功能、測試或設計），這佔了整個成本的三分之一以上。切記，基礎設施通常是一種持續成本，而非一次性成本。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/66\/66f4c8bb9b3abe6c7bf573c367825aaa.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《構建移動應用的成本》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Cost to Build a Mobile App: A Survey"},{"type":"text","text":"），Clutch"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"至於營銷方面，我們就以 2020 年全球"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessofapps.com\/ads\/cpi\/research\/cost-per-install\/#:~:text=Costs%20in%20USD-,Average%20CPI%20for%20iOS%20and%20Android%20apps%20worldwide,and%20%240.86%20for%20Android%20apps.","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"平均每次安裝成本"}]},{"type":"text","text":"（Cost Per Install，CPI）作爲一個簡單的指標。對於 iPhone 應用程序來說，是 0.86 美元；對於 Android 應用程序來說，是 0.44 美元。現在把它乘以你希望獲得的用戶數量，你就知道你可能會花費多少錢了（假設你不需要爲市場營銷而花費其他費用）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"還請記住，美國等發達市場的 CPI 要高得多（iOS 爲 2.07 美元，Android 爲 1.72 美元），而熱門平臺的成本則更高（Facebook 爲 1.80 美元，Twitter 爲 2.53 美元，Instagram 爲 2.23 美元）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在這個階段，一些有抱負的創始人可能會這樣想：我有一個不錯的主意，我可以從小做起，然後在應用程序顯示出吸引力後籌集所需的風險投資。好吧，事實是這樣的：現在大多數應用程序的想法並不新穎。對大多數風投來說，投資應用已經沒有什麼吸引力了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果你還沒有聽說過風險投資到底是如何運作的，請閱讀我的文章《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/medium.com\/swlh\/the-truth-behind-how-venture-capital-chooses-startups-3c95a96ba836","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"風險投資如何選擇創業公司背後的真相"}]},{"type":"text","text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The Truth Behind How Venture Capital Chooses Startups"},{"type":"text","text":"）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不過，如果儘管如此，你仍然能夠成爲十億分之一的人，去打造下一個獨角獸應用，你仍然有可能會面臨比統計數據或金錢更大的障礙。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移動應用遊戲確實已經發生了永久性的改變。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"應用作爲經濟和政治武器"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作爲一種全球性的產品和社交工具，移動應用本身的成功也給業界帶來了新的問題：應用正成爲經濟和政治爭端的目標。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這一切都是從特朗普政府以國家安全爲由對中國科技企業及其產品 （包括移動應用） 實施制裁開始的。不過，在美國禁止中國應用的努力在生效之前，仍要"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/usa\/trump-bans-transactions-8-chinese-apps-including-alipay","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"受到"}]},{"type":"text","text":"官僚機構的制約。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是印度沒有這個問題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2020 年，印度發佈了三項不同的公告，"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/11\/26\/china-responds-to-india-banning-43-additional-chinese-apps.html#:~:text=New%20Delhi%20issued%20an%20order,like%20ByteDance%2C%20Tencent%20and%20Alibaba.","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"禁止"}]},{"type":"text","text":"了至少 220 款中國應用，其中包括像 Tik Tok（抖音國際版）、微信和 AliExpress（阿里巴巴全球速賣通）這樣的大受歡迎的應用，也以國家安全爲由。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"大多數觀察人士認爲，從 2020 年 7 月開始的禁令是由於前一個月在喜馬拉雅山發生的邊境衝突導致 20 名印度士兵死亡後，雙邊緊張局勢所致。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"與此同時，中國政府在 2020 年 12 月"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/technology-55230654","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"宣佈"}]},{"type":"text","text":"從其應用商店中刪除 105 個應用，其中大部分是非法或不雅內容的國內應用。然而，令人奇怪的是，大多數觀察人士都想不通爲什麼美國的 TripAdvisor 也在這份名單中。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這僅僅是科技企業和應用面臨更多地緣政治障礙的開始嗎？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"只有時間才能告訴……"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"超越過去"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有一點是肯定的：從總體上看，移動應用業務將繼續增長，直到智能手機的擁有量停滯不前。但是對初創企業而言，競爭環境已經變了。你會不會認爲，如今在車庫裏生產個人電腦的幾個極客，同樣有可能把它發展成價值數十億美元的全球性公司，就像 70 年代那樣？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事實是，如果你知道如何編寫代碼，或者與幾個技術派聯合創始人一起引導，你還是能賺到一些不錯的錢。但是，發佈一個應用程序就能迅速走紅，從而讓你很快籌集到鉅額的風險投資；或者賣掉它換取一筆值得退休的錢的日子早已一去不復返了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"歸根結底就是這兩個：時間和潮流。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"技術及其帶來的現代創新發展迅速。一項產業一旦成熟，它就會成爲大企業和實力雄厚企業的博弈。小玩家仍然可以出現，但是現在的機會對你非常不利。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"順便提一句，本文開頭提到的那個神童最近在做什麼呢？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"根據他的 LinkedIn 和 Twitter 來看，他已經從開發移動應用轉向開發 3D VR 應用和遊戲了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"作者介紹："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Lance Ng，撰寫關於商業、技術和社會的文章。投資人、企業家、思想家。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文鏈接："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/medium.com\/swlh\/mobile-apps-are-no-longer-a-good-idea-for-startups-e86d4f7c483b"}]}]}