移动应用不再是初创企业的好主意

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"本文最初发表于 Medium 博客，经原作者 Lance Ng 授权，InfoQ 中文站翻译并分享。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移动应用从一个 9 岁小孩都会写的很酷的东西，变成了一个和全球政治缠绕在一起的知识和资本密集型游戏。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2009 年 2 月，世界各地的媒体都在"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-singapore-iphone-child\/nine-year-old-whiz-kid-writes-iphone-application-idUSTRE5140FI20090205","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"报道"}]},{"type":"text","text":"一位“神童”——来自新加坡的 9 岁男孩 Lim Ding Wen 成为了全球最年轻的 iPhone 应用开发者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"他开发了一款叫“Doodle Kids”的应用程序，用户可以用手指在 iPhone 屏幕上作画。两周内下载次数超过 4000 次。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"他的父亲是当地一家科技公司的首席技术官，而这个男孩从两岁起就开始玩电脑，这对他起到了帮助作用。七岁的时候，他就已经掌握了六种不同的编程语言。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/singapore\/boy-wonder-grows-up#:~:text=Lim%20Ding%20Wen%20was%20just,clear%20them%20by%20shaking%20it.","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"八年后"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，这位神童发布了 20 多个免费的智能手机应用，但是他还在玩游戏。在那时，他正在攻读信息技术专业的学位，并有雄心壮志要成为游戏开发者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"然而，他承认“手机应用市场已经饱和了”，并在尝试其他涉及新语言和编程电路芯片的项目。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"现在，新冠肺炎疫情爆发拯救了移动应用"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这个神童奇迹般地说中了。当那篇文章于 2017 年 1 月发表时，移动应用市场确实已经呈现下滑趋势。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"苹果应用商店的应用季度增长率从 2016 年第四季度开始首次出现负增长。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/e0\/e02d098556572f6d24111a59d1f60216.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"从 2015 年第二季度到 2020 年第三季度，苹果应用商店全球可用移动应用的增长。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"类似的趋势也可以在 Google Play 商店看到，尽管 Android 手机越来越流行，"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2018\/4\/5\/17204074\/apple-number-app-store-record-low-2017-developers-ios","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"开发者们发布 Android 版 iOS 应用"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，从某种程度上缓解了最初急速下滑之后的下滑。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/43\/430192e6896e5a9014c5867050245fd5.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2015 年第二季度至 2020 年第三季度，Google Play 全球可用移动应用的增长。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"对我来说，这种趋势是一种很好的证明。2016 年底，我在 LinkedIn 上发表了一篇题为《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/mobile-apps-disappear-soon-lance-ng\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移动应用很快就会消失"}]},{"type":"text","text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Mobile Apps will Disappear Soon"},{"type":"text","text":"）的文章，暗指市场已经饱和，许多应用将在未来几年中逐渐淡出或整合。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2018 年 10 月，我在 Medium 上更新并重新发布了这篇文章。这篇文章入了编辑们的法眼，被他们以《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/medium.com\/s\/story\/mobile-apps-will-disappear-soon-4b4e54f46eb8","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移动应用的末日即将来临"}]},{"type":"text","text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The End is Near for Mobile Apps"},{"type":"text","text":"）为新标题进行了专题报道。这篇文章在网络上疯狂传播，引发了很多抄袭者和彻底的盗版行为。一位读者甚至向我提出了"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/medium.com\/@prenezisbell_13570\/i-will-place-a-1000-bet-with-the-author-that-the-market-for-mobile-apps-five-years-from-now-is-at-7f275b7198e5","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"挑战"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，赌注是 1000 美元，说我会错。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"命中注定，他也许是靠运气才赢了这场赌局。直到 2020 新冠型肺炎爆发之前，这些数据都证明了我的观点，由于这次疫情对身体活动和互动的影响，手机应用程序得到了大幅提升。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"随着新的应用和下载率的再度提升，许多应用行业人士又一次对未来做出了高度乐观的预测。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是，这是否意味着，现在正是尝试移动应用创业理念的好时机？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我不这么看。大多数在网上博客和行业报告中热心建议这样做的人，都是那些通过为应用发行商提供分析或数字营销等服务来赚钱的人。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果你正在考虑创建一个应用，我会建议你考虑以下几点……"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"数字可能具有欺骗性"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"首先，我们必须将对某项经济活动的增加的兴趣与该活动作为商业活动的经济可行性区别开来，特别是对于刚起步的初创企业来说！"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"尽管世界上总的应用程序数量在不断增加，但事实是，正如网站和博客一样，许多手机应用发布后，失败了，然后在很长一段时间里又"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2018\/4\/5\/17204074\/apple-number-app-store-record-low-2017-developers-ios","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"被丢弃在网上"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，再次被删除。应用商店中充斥着“僵尸应用”、低质量的应用，以及充斥着广告的山寨游戏应用，这使得累积的总数无法准确地反映出应用企业的经济活力。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"应用行业的支持者还指出，智能手机用户和应用下载量不断上升。但是这个统计也有失偏颇，因为在这些下载量中，"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessofapps.com\/data\/app-statistics\/#2.3","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"占据多数的是当前的热门社交、实用和游戏应用程序"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。即使是免费的，新的应用也往往难以获得任何关注。付费应用的情况就更糟糕了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“庞大的受众群体及其增长潜力创造了令人印象深刻的统计数字，但是……消费者被宠坏了，现在他们期待的是高度相关和真正有价值的体验。别的什么都是噪音。”"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"——"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.adjust.com\/resources\/ebooks\/app-trends-2020\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"App Trends 2020"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，Adjust"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"即便是下载了一个应用程序，其用户留存率也很差。在 2020 年，应用第一天的平均用户留存率只有 25.2%。也就是说，在下载了你的应用的用户中，有四分之三的用户在短短一天后就再也不会使用它了。而在 30 天后，则骤降至 3.5%*。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/liftoff.io\/blog\/out-now-2020-mobile-app-trends-report\/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Liftoff 2020 移动应用趋势报告"}]},{"type":"text","text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Liftoff 2020 Mobile App Trends Report"},{"type":"text","text":"）"}]}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"成本大幅上升"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在短期内，应用市场也已十分成熟。今天，为了获得巨大的用户基础而竞争和适当地扩大应用的规模，需要大量的资金。建立和维护企业级的 IT 基础设施需要大量的资金投入，同时持续地投资营销，以获得、激活和接触用户。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"就基础设施而言，问问在一家成熟的初创公司工作过、运行面向数百万用户的应用程序的技术人员就知道了。所需的技术栈和知识远远超出了那些拥有基本编程经验的程序员所能提供的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/clutch.co\/app-development\/cost-build-mobile-app-survey","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Clutch"}]},{"type":"text","text":"在 2015 年对“12 家领先的移动应用开发公司”进行的调查显示，开发一款 iPhone 应用，“[成本中位数在 37913 美元到 171405 美元之间，但很可能会攀升到 50 万美元或更高](https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Did you know? The median cost cost to build a mobile app is between "},{"type":"katexinline","attrs":{"mathString":"37,913 and "}},{"type":"text","text":"171,450.&url=http:\/\/bit.ly\/1Ja7GJB&via=Clutch_co)”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是更为有趣的是，最大的部分总是“基础设施”成本（而非功能、测试或设计），这占了整个成本的三分之一以上。切记，基础设施通常是一种持续成本，而非一次性成本。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/66\/66f4c8bb9b3abe6c7bf573c367825aaa.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《构建移动应用的成本》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Cost to Build a Mobile App: A Survey"},{"type":"text","text":"），Clutch"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"至于营销方面，我们就以 2020 年全球"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessofapps.com\/ads\/cpi\/research\/cost-per-install\/#:~:text=Costs%20in%20USD-,Average%20CPI%20for%20iOS%20and%20Android%20apps%20worldwide,and%20%240.86%20for%20Android%20apps.","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"平均每次安装成本"}]},{"type":"text","text":"（Cost Per Install，CPI）作为一个简单的指标。对于 iPhone 应用程序来说，是 0.86 美元；对于 Android 应用程序来说，是 0.44 美元。现在把它乘以你希望获得的用户数量，你就知道你可能会花费多少钱了（假设你不需要为市场营销而花费其他费用）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"还请记住，美国等发达市场的 CPI 要高得多（iOS 为 2.07 美元，Android 为 1.72 美元），而热门平台的成本则更高（Facebook 为 1.80 美元，Twitter 为 2.53 美元，Instagram 为 2.23 美元）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在这个阶段，一些有抱负的创始人可能会这样想：我有一个不错的主意，我可以从小做起，然后在应用程序显示出吸引力后筹集所需的风险投资。好吧，事实是这样的：现在大多数应用程序的想法并不新颖。对大多数风投来说，投资应用已经没有什么吸引力了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果你还没有听说过风险投资到底是如何运作的，请阅读我的文章《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/medium.com\/swlh\/the-truth-behind-how-venture-capital-chooses-startups-3c95a96ba836","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"风险投资如何选择创业公司背后的真相"}]},{"type":"text","text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The Truth Behind How Venture Capital Chooses Startups"},{"type":"text","text":"）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"不过，如果尽管如此，你仍然能够成为十亿分之一的人，去打造下一个独角兽应用，你仍然有可能会面临比统计数据或金钱更大的障碍。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"移动应用游戏确实已经发生了永久性的改变。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"应用作为经济和政治武器"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作为一种全球性的产品和社交工具，移动应用本身的成功也给业界带来了新的问题：应用正成为经济和政治争端的目标。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这一切都是从特朗普政府以国家安全为由对中国科技企业及其产品 （包括移动应用） 实施制裁开始的。不过，在美国禁止中国应用的努力在生效之前，仍要"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/usa\/trump-bans-transactions-8-chinese-apps-including-alipay","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"受到"}]},{"type":"text","text":"官僚机构的制约。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是印度没有这个问题。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2020 年，印度发布了三项不同的公告，"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/11\/26\/china-responds-to-india-banning-43-additional-chinese-apps.html#:~:text=New%20Delhi%20issued%20an%20order,like%20ByteDance%2C%20Tencent%20and%20Alibaba.","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"禁止"}]},{"type":"text","text":"了至少 220 款中国应用，其中包括像 Tik Tok（抖音国际版）、微信和 AliExpress（阿里巴巴全球速卖通）这样的大受欢迎的应用，也以国家安全为由。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"大多数观察人士认为，从 2020 年 7 月开始的禁令是由于前一个月在喜马拉雅山发生的边境冲突导致 20 名印度士兵死亡后，双边紧张局势所致。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"与此同时，中国政府在 2020 年 12 月"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/technology-55230654","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"宣布"}]},{"type":"text","text":"从其应用商店中删除 105 个应用，其中大部分是非法或不雅内容的国内应用。然而，令人奇怪的是，大多数观察人士都想不通为什么美国的 TripAdvisor 也在这份名单中。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这仅仅是科技企业和应用面临更多地缘政治障碍的开始吗？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"只有时间才能告诉……"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"超越过去"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有一点是肯定的：从总体上看，移动应用业务将继续增长，直到智能手机的拥有量停滞不前。但是对初创企业而言，竞争环境已经变了。你会不会认为，如今在车库里生产个人电脑的几个极客，同样有可能把它发展成价值数十亿美元的全球性公司，就像 70 年代那样？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事实是，如果你知道如何编写代码，或者与几个技术派联合创始人一起引导，你还是能赚到一些不错的钱。但是，发布一个应用程序就能迅速走红，从而让你很快筹集到巨额的风险投资；或者卖掉它换取一笔值得退休的钱的日子早已一去不复返了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"归根结底就是这两个：时间和潮流。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"技术及其带来的现代创新发展迅速。一项产业一旦成熟，它就会成为大企业和实力雄厚企业的博弈。小玩家仍然可以出现，但是现在的机会对你非常不利。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"顺便提一句，本文开头提到的那个神童最近在做什么呢？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"根据他的 LinkedIn 和 Twitter 来看，他已经从开发移动应用转向开发 3D VR 应用和游戏了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"作者介绍："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Lance Ng，撰写关于商业、技术和社会的文章。投资人、企业家、思想家。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文链接："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/medium.com\/swlh\/mobile-apps-are-no-longer-a-good-idea-for-startups-e86d4f7c483b"}]}]}