工厂的重组：是时候给软件工程师提供更多的工具

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}},{"type":"strong"}],"text":"本文最初发表于作者个人网站，经原作者 Erik Bernhardsson 授权，InfoQ 中文站翻译并分享。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在开发人员中流行的态度是，抱怨我们的工具和东西有多烂。或许我是个乐观主义者，因为我的观点完全相反！1999 年，我得到了第一个软件工程师的工作，在过去的二十年里，我见证了软件工程的变化，使我们的工作效率提高了好几个数量级。仅举一些我曾经做过或者接近做过的事情的例子："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"Spotify 使用 C++ 构建了一套完整的 P2P 架构，用于向听众分发流媒体音乐，而这在今天已经是一个微不足道的问题（将数据放在 CDN 上）。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"过去，我常常编写自定义的 mapreduce 作业，以获取基本的统计数据，然后等上几个小时才能完成。现在，这些是数据仓库中的 SQL 查询，只需几秒钟就能运行。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"以前我开过一家网店，用了一个星期才实现信用卡支付。而现在用 Stripe，15 分钟就可以搞定。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"更不用说开发过程中的变化了："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在这个行业中，单元测试是非常罕见的：我第一次遇到它是在 2006 年谷歌工作时。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"在 git 刚刚出现时，git-flow 是盛行的工作流，很多和我一起工作的开发人员都会花很多时间（比如 20~30%）来重新构建基础。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"CI 系统很脆弱，CD 基本上不存在，部署是可怕的手工事务。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"这些只是例子——我可以说上一整天。正如关于软件生产力的经典论文《"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/No_Silver_Bullet","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"没有银弹"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"》（"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"No Silver Bullet"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"），这些东西本身并没有什么显著的进步。但生产率的增长是累加的，并且是以对数尺度累加起来的，也就是说，当你的时间尺度是几十年的时候，我们看到的将是数量级的增长，这不是没有道理的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"（注意：在本文中，我将使用“工具”一词来指代所有种类的东西：框架、库、开发流程、基础设施。）"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"对软件永无止境的需求"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"对于世界有一种极为粗略的分类："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"有些东西有很好的软件。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"有些东西有平庸的软件。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"有些东西没有软件。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"到目前为止，这一点已经很明显了，因此我继续说下去：如果有一种能力，能够在零成本的条件下，瞬间生产出无限量的软件，那么最后两种分类将不再存在。平庸的软件之所以存在，是因为有些人没有能力雇佣更好的工程师，或者他们没有时间，或者其他什么原因。没有软件的东西……算是万能的吗？我是说，为什么你的鞋子里没有内置计步器？为什么会计里的标记还能生成 PDF 发票，并通过电子邮件发送给客户？怎么不……我还能说更多。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"很明显，我们一直在向这个方向努力，而我的观点是，仍然有很多东西可以使用软件。那为什么还没有发生呢？由于一些人做出经济决策，他们"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/erikbern.com\/2020\/03\/10\/never-attribute-to-stupidity-that-which-is-adequately-explained-by-opportunity-cost.html","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"认为构建这些软件的成本太高"}],"marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}]},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"。雇佣工程师、培训工程师以及把事情做好，都需要金钱和时间。那么，我们如何看待这种成本呢？"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"软件工程师的供求关系"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"现在回到我的观点，即软件工程师的生产率会随着时间而提高。用经济学术语来说，这意味着单位时间内的产出价值将增加。就需求而言，这意味着构建软件的成本降低了。过去需要 1000 个小时才能完成的事情，现在需要 100 个小时就能完成。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"如果需求是固定的，那就意味着大规模失业和工程师工资的降低，但需求并不是固定的！正如我前面所暗示的那样，构建软件的成本降低意味着新的机会的出现。以前，构建你的小工具不值得花费 1000 个小时的工程努力，但花费 100 个小时还是值得的。这里面存在着巨大的潜在需求。你甚至可以支付工程师更多的时薪。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"这些情况可以同时发生："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"开发更多的软件。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"为软件工程师加薪。"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"软件工程师的数量越来越多。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"这可能有悖于直觉，因此值得拿它和固定需求进行比较。假设发明了某种工艺，使纸尿裤工厂的产量提高了 10%（保持所有成本不变），并且这项发明可以立即提供给所有纸尿裤制造商。结果会是什么呢？纸尿裤市场将出现暂时性的供过于求，市场将趋于一个新的平衡点，即供应量萎缩以满足需求。在这个过程中，一些工厂将会关闭，纸尿裤的价格也将会下降。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"软件工程师的不同之处在于，当成本下降时，需求就会增长。以前，你阿姨的牙科诊所没有网站，但现在值得拥有一套在线预约系统。你孩子所在的学校突然出现了一个应用程序，可以向家长发送更新的信息。我不知道——我的观点是，随着价格的下降，会有更多的需求出现。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"这种情况不仅发生在整个经济领域，也可能发生在微观尺度上。如果你有一个数据科学家团队，而你引入了一个工具，使当时的生产力提高了 2 倍？很好。你只是增加了一倍的投资回报率，你应该去雇佣更多的人。我从来没有见过一个公司的数据科学家会没有工作了：总是有更多的东西需要分析。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"这种情况会一直持续下去吗？我想在某种终极状态下，我们会遇到类似奇点的东西，软件本身制造软件的速度如此之快，以至于需求不能随着供应而增长。在这个时候，我会为软件工程师的失业担忧。但是我想，在未来的几十年中，我们会看到越来越多的软件工程师出现在我们的视野中。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如何成为软件工程师"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"很明显，软件作为一个领域的发展和薪资的增长，本身就吸引了更多的人进入，但是我认为还有一件事在发生。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":" "}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"color","attrs":{"color":"#494949","name":"user"}}],"text":"几十年前，软件工程非常困难，因为你必须从头开始构建一切，并解决所有这些基础问题。你需要存储空间来为 100 万并发用户提供服务？阅读关于一致哈希算法，CAP 定理，CRDTs 之类的论文，卷起袖子，准备好迎接 10 万行硬核 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