打字员为什么要去看商业模式

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"其实这是一篇读书笔记,作为一名勤恳的Java打字员,不知道为什么微信读书给我推了这一本","attrs":{}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://book.douban.com/subject/34923245/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《商业的本质和互联网》","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"text","text":"。页数不多,标题挺唬人,索性就看了进去,总的来说这是一本互联网经济科普,查了一下作者","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"许小年","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":",是个大佬,这本书大概花了4个多小时看完,非常推荐在一线干活的RD同学们也看一下,可以增加一些大局观和对现今互联网经济的一些基本认知。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"互联网之前","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"人类在互联网之前建立的第一张网络就是交通网络,交通网络因为蒸汽机的发明而产生了革命性的变化,俗称工业革命。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"第二张网络为电力的网络,直接将人类带入电气时代,俗称第二次工业革命。","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这是否就意味着技术创新就能改变一切呢?并不能这么说。首先技术的发展并没有既定的方向,人类的想象力是无限的,蒸汽机发明之前也有无数的机械化设备发明,但最终留下来且被人们接受是瓦特和他的蒸汽机,这背后的原因一方面可能是历史的巧合,另一个重要原因作者认为是","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"市场规模","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"的推动。仅有技术创新还不足以改变生产方式,生产规模的扩大才能降低分摊的成本。才有足够的推动力去带来生产革命。作者有关经济增长的论述也让我耳目一新,作为一名Java打字员,之前我以为的经济增长就是赚到钱了。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有收入支持的消费需求反过来刺激生产,经济进入供给和需求相互推动的良性循环,在宏观层面上表现为经济增长。","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有关互联网的一些经济基本概念","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这两章大部分是理论和公式,比较枯燥,但建立概念是分析的前提。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"规模经济效应","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":":销售利润随着产量的增加而上升。固定成本的占比越高,单位成本随产量下降的幅度越大。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"边际成本递减","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"和","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"边际收益递增","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":":这个很好理解,一个良性发展的公司每增加一单业务成本必然是递减的,同时收益也是递增的。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"梅特卡夫效应","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":":互联网公司的市场价值与网络节点数的平方成正比。“赔本赚吆喝”的公司不适用。网络节点数可以理解为活跃用户数。","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"双边市场效应","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":":不同类型用户之间正反馈交互所创造的价值。","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作者举例分析当下的电商和网约车平台的价值模型:电商平台有以下的角色,比如京东,苏宁,亚马逊(淘宝严格意义上不能算电商,电商一般是面向供应商采购,然后自行管理物流和用户侧交易):","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"供应商","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"电商平台","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"买家","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"电商平台作为中介,让买家和供应商隔绝了交流,杜绝了更多价值的可能性。网络价值:","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"K1*(N+M)","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。其中N为供应商数量,M为用户数量,K1为系数。滴滴,优步,爱彼迎的交互模型:","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"房东/车主","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"平台","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"用户","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这三者均有直接的交流,网络价值:","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"K2*(N*M)","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。共享单车等所谓“共享经济”:与传统行业没有太大区别,只有平台和用户,网络价值:","attrs":{}},{"type":"codeinline","content":[{"type":"text","text":"K3*N","attrs":{}}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"text","text":"。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最后作者引用了另外一本书(","attrs":{}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://book.douban.com/subject/27171481/","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《平台革命》","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"text","text":")的一些观点来阐述互联网公司估值的三个准则:","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"梅特卡夫网络效应——社交平台多对多网络","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"双边市场效应——B2C平台,电商,团购,外卖,打车","attrs":{}}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"成本结构和规模效应——企业内部的组织和成本的优化以及外部的用户规模","attrs":{}}]}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"只有规模效应的公司对估值的加成很小。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"竞争","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"当下多数的互联网公司的打法依旧是以同质化的产品补贴用户去抢占市场,想法设法提升用户规模,赔钱赚吆喝。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"齐白石说:学我者生,似我者死。","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"脸书在社交网络方面拥有压倒性优势,活跃在专业人士中的领英(Linkedin)不仅没有缴械投降,而且越办越好,诀窍同样是细分市场中的差异化服务。国内微信在社交媒体方面的地位类似于脸书,它也不能一枝独秀,具有类似社交功能的微博与它并立,两者既竞争又互补,微信着眼于小范围的互动交流,微博则可以做大面积的信息发布。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果不能差异化,公司的实力再强也难以动摇先发者的优势。腾讯曾经试图挑战新浪微博在信息发布和社交上的领先地位,于2010年推出腾讯微博,投入大量的人力和财力争夺用户,最终因收效甚微而不得不在2018年放弃。赶超之难在于新浪微博的免费使用,而客户迁移到腾讯微博却是有成本的,迁移成本不只是下载和熟悉新软件所花费的时间,还有新浪微博上关注的对象和粉丝的损失。2011年腾讯发布与微博不同的微信,这才打开一片新的天地。微信的崛起并不意味着微博的末日,用户注册微信的同时保留了微博,因为两者存在差异,无法完全相互替代。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"眼看微信火爆,阿里不甘落后,于2013年隆重推出自己的社交产品“来往”,不料却重蹈前人同质化的覆辙。来往被疑为是微信的姊妹版,连Logo看上去都似曾相识,完全不能撼动微信的根基。待到阿里另辟市场,于2015年正式发布面向企业的沟通平台“钉钉”,方大获成功,在社交媒体的竞争中扳回一城。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong","attrs":{}}],"text":"规模不可怕,可怕的是同质化,是缺乏创新的能力。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number"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