玉伯：前端的現狀之痛及未來趨勢

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在 GMTC 北京上，我聽了螞蟻金服玉伯老師的分享。玉伯 2008 年加入阿里，在這期間，他和團隊一起折騰過 KISSY、SeaJS、Ant Design、AntV 等開源項目，現在我們都喜歡用的語雀也是他團隊的產品。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"他說他的人生觀是敢想敢說、敢做敢當、簡單真誠、自由活着。整個演講，他娓娓道來，特別地真誠，也很實在。我把 PPT 放到文末鏈接了，如果你想看可以直接去下載。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"下面是我根據他演講內容的總結，他沒聊具體的技術，但聊到了整個行業的方向，以及一些技術趨勢，挺有意思的，希望能給你一些啓發吧。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1、現在行業裏，大概有三種聲音。第一種是說，前端技術卷，論點是前端的輪子多，重複工作多（大量 CRUD），技術創新越來越難。第二種是說，前端發展難，比如有的人說，前端高 P 很少，前端的晉升很難。第三種是從企業的角度說，前端工程師難招，整個行業都在喊，前端招聘難，甚至在某些公司，前端外包人數已超過正式前端了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2、先不談玉伯的觀點，我聽到這裏的時候，就想起了幾年前羅振宇在跨年演講上的一句話，大概意思是這樣的。“總有人問，今年經濟到底好不好。想論證好，有一堆事實。想論證不好，也有一堆事實。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3、是啊，現在我一聽到內卷這詞就煩躁，都是瞎歸因。你說內卷，能找到一堆事實。你說不內卷，也能找到一堆事實。關鍵是，有些人覺得內卷，他就不努力了，到最後，論證了半天，把自己積極性給打擊了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4、玉伯也辯證性的給出了自己的思考。他說，比如低代碼平臺，阿里內部確實也有很多，但業務層面你深入進去看，那些“輪子”都是合理的，它確實是在解決特定領域的特定問題。技術層面，這些低代碼平臺在技術上的高水平競爭非常少，真正的角逐纔剛剛開始。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"5、所以，冷靜下來看前端技術，有兩個結論。第一，內卷並不多，無論業界還是公司內，前端技術棧都在快速收斂。第二，前端的“外卷”正在發生，開放高效的 Web 前端技術，正在滲透各個領域。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"6、第二點解釋下，之前有句話叫做能夠用 JavaScript 實現的，可能遲早都會用 JavaScript 實現。這個趨勢你我都能看到，比如通過 Node.js 前端還可以做一些服務端的工作，前端還能寫一些 IoT 的應用，還能影響設計等等。這都是積極的變化。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"7、回到行業，這兩年，行業都在談雲計算，從底向上，分別是 IaaS、PaaS、SaaS，19 年之前，雲計算行業對人才的需求是個正金字塔（IaaS 需求最多）。但現在，SaaS 已經成爲新的創業風口，IaaS + PaaS 的從業者會逐步收斂，SaaS 的從業者會急劇增加。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"8、目前，前端工程師在中國的量級應該是幾十萬，程序員總體是有百萬。隨着行業的發展，程序員肯定會到千萬量級，那時候，前端也必定會到百萬量級，這是大勢所趨。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"9、給個數據，目前整個阿里將近有四五千個前端。在杭州有一些以 SaaS 型爲主的創業公司，他們一百個工程師裏面，基本上有五六十個是前端工程師，前端已經成爲整個技術團隊的中堅力量。你要知道，現在整個行業的方向是數字化轉型、產業互聯網，這裏面對工程師，特別是前端工程師的需求都是指數級增長的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"10、就從這個視角看，這真的是一個前端最好的時代，你應該樂觀、積極。有人追問說，那爲啥前端工程師都這麼年輕，老一點的前端幹嘛去了？是的，前端整個行業 90 後的佔比很高，在支付寶，90 後前端已經接近 70%。那 80 後幹嘛去了？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"11、資深前端的發展是多元化的，這和後端一樣。比如有的人已經成爲領域專家，大家去做低代碼平臺之類更難的事情去了。有的人做了管理，甚至成爲了 CTO。總之，玉伯看到的資深的前端，發展都很不錯。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"12、回到前端技術本身，玉伯看到三個方向，我們一個個說。首先肯定是低代碼或者無代碼，這可以解放前端自己的生產力，消除重複勞動，比如四表一局（圖表、表單、列表、表格以及佈局）的開發。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"13、第二個是智能化領域。特別是端智能，現在大家對用戶隱私、數據安全越來越看重，那智能的計算放到端側肯定是最合適的，而這塊，必然會和前端結合。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"14、第三個是體驗型的工具產品，從國外看，不少生產力工具，或者體驗型產品的創業者，他們都是前端或者設計師出生，因爲他們都是對體驗天然有追求的一幫人。這裏面會有不少的機會。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"15、演講裏，玉伯還提到說，他認爲，越來越多前端工程師，會成爲 SaaS 型產品工程師，總人數會超過後端工程師。這塊我沒有理解特別透，先說下玉伯的解釋，他覺得，從更宏觀視角看，前端就是人機交互工程師，需要和機器交互，需要 UI 界面的地方，就需要前端。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"16、而人機交互的 IT 載體，其實就是產品。所以，前端、產品的融合之處，也許就會有新的分工。有個圖，也許可以幫你你理解。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"17、週四，7 月 22 日晚上 8 點，"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"我會在視頻號連麥閒魚的宗心和字節跳動的徐東，和他們聊聊 Flutter"},{"type":"text","text":"。字節和阿里，應該是國內落地 Flutter 最好的公司了吧，他們都是其中的關鍵角色。如果你對這事感興趣，那千萬不要錯過。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}