一個文科生眼中的技術本質

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"紙上談兵，博君一笑。"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我人生的前 20 多年，所有跟計算機相關的記憶都是遊戲，而非代碼。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"因緣際會進入開發者社區工作以後，倒是在沒有代碼基礎的情況下，接觸了很多技術的上層建築。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我參與採訪過很多稱得上大神的技術人："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Ruby 之父松本行弘；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"阿里 CTO 魯肅；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"螞蟻的褚霸；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"20 多年操作系統研發經驗的老兵；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"開源基金會的 PMC 們；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"各個大廠的首席架構師、技術 VP；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"……"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"也參與撰寫過很多技術領域的年度總結和開年預測：架構、雲計算、大前端、數據庫……"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在過去的六年中，我發現技術的價值愈發受到資本的追捧，由開源項目所成立的初創企業往往僅憑一個故事就能拿到不錯的天使投資。而代表着技術趨勢的開源企業，其估值的膨脹更是不可抑止，比如雲原生數據倉庫的代表——Snowflake 創紀錄的IPO，比如PingCAP估值30億美元的新一輪融資。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從軟件開發的層次上看，技術的發展變化不可謂不快："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"雲計算從虛擬機到容器再到雲原生，十年時間已經迎來送往了多個時代；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"數據庫從關係型到 NoSQL 再到 NewSQL，商業型數據庫、開源數據庫互相印證一路前行；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"運維們也從“人肉運維”到 DevOps、AIOps、DevSecOps，引發了行業性的被替代危機。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但與此截然相反的，卻是底層架構的發展緩慢，其更迭往往以十年爲單位。正如開源軟件誕生以前，辦公套件的更新週期。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Gartner 每年都會發布一份新興技術炒作週期的報告，這個報告或許可以稱得上是科技圈的風向標，每次推出都會得到業界的廣泛關注。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但如果我們把時間維度拉長到以 10 年、20 年爲單位，會發現這裏面的很多所謂新興技術，有的在不知不覺間消亡，有的在沉寂多年以後又再重啓。這起碼說明了兩個問題：一，技術的創新速度其實沒那麼快；二，技術的價值有時候沒有得到有效印證。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"回顧過去幾年聚光燈下的技術名詞，你能想到哪些？從雲計算到人工智能，從區塊鏈到雲原生，然後是最近大熱的低代碼。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這幾項技術，有的其實並不新，比如人工智能就是個老夥計了。有的其實也很新，比如區塊鏈，但也面臨着這樣的困境：區塊鏈是一個不知道要解決什麼問題的解決方案。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果讓我們去總結一下這些技術發展、變化的脈絡，會得出什麼樣的結論？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從軟件工程的角度看，高內聚、低耦合是軟件設計的核心標準，很多軟件研發領域內的定律都是圍繞其在做文章。但再往後，大家發現需求越複雜，反而要求軟件變得簡單、快捷。所以屠龍之術固然看上去牛逼，但大家卻更發現簡單的反而是最難的，KISS 原則也沒那麼簡單。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"於是我們發現，不論是雲原生也好，低代碼也好，Serverless 也好，大的趨勢就是"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"技術的下沉"},{"type":"text","text":"，新興技術的本質都是在這個趨勢下去"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"降低門檻"},{"type":"text","text":"，一方面降低應用開發者的門檻，另一方面也是降低使用者的門檻。這樣才能得出一個結論：技術的本質，其實說穿了就是那四個字——降本增效。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在消費互聯網進入瓶頸的當下，產業互聯網的 B 端紅海，更加凸顯了這個本質的價值。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"所以，從我的角度看，不管是所謂前端的「別更新了，學不動了」，還是其他的奇技淫巧，歸根結底都是爲了降本增效。這纔是技術的本質，也是技術最大的價值，也會是未來受到更多關注的關鍵點所在之處。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這就是我，一個文科生眼中的，技術的本質。"}]}]}