鴻蒙能成爲世界第三的操作系統嗎？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"6 月 2 日，鴻蒙又一場發佈會如約而至。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"從誕生之初的「PPT 系統」、「按揭開源」，到源碼公佈後的「套皮安卓」、「抄襲可恥」，再到如今的立場屁股之爭，鴻蒙用兩年不到的時間攪動了天下風雲。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Go 語言之父 Rob Pike 早在 2000 年的時候就說過，“系統軟件研究不再有意思了。”而在那個年代，Android、iOS 系統尚未問世，第一支 Symbian 手機也剛上市，沒有人能預料到後來的移動操作系統會有滄海桑田般的鉅變。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"關於鴻蒙的技術原理和底層實現，我沒有資格過多置喙。對於開源，我的態度向來很明確——讓時間說真話。開源是建立信任、衝散陰影的最佳方式，每一次發版、每一次 issue 的反饋與解決，都是在給予社區最直觀的態度。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"因此，對於鴻蒙，我的態度也很明確——不看它說了什麼，要看它做了什麼。從技術路線的角度看，現階段兼容 Android 生態無可指摘，未來能在多大程度上真正做到自主可控，靠的也並非華爲一家之功。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我對鴻蒙的期待是——先成爲世界第三的操作系統吧！","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"世界第三，難嗎？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"競技體育曾有過一句名言——第二名是最大的輸家。在商業層面上，這句話也同樣成立，比如對技術、產品、資金資源要求頗高的雲計算行業，就是一個贏家通喫的殘酷戰場。市場佔有率最高的一方，一般都自帶龐大的用戶羣體、規模化的開發者資源、強大而完善的社區生態。而第二名及以下的挑戰者們，往往需要花費更多。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另闢蹊徑者不是沒有，但成功者往往寥寥無幾。操作系統領域並不是一個新事物，也遠遠談不上什麼新技術，這只是一個在 20 年前就被人評價爲“沒什麼意思”了的行業。但在中國，操作系統行業卻是“缺芯少魂”之痛中的重要一環。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"鴻蒙最終構建的藍圖，就是華爲 slogan 的終極體現——構建萬物互聯的智能世界。但在現階段來看，最受關注的，仍舊是在移動端發佈的鴻蒙系統。可以預見的是，在未來的一段時間內，移動端鴻蒙系統仍舊是現階段發展的重心和關注焦點。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在 Android、iOS 雄霸的時代，也有過一批全新面貌的操作系統曾在兩大巨頭的夾縫中求生存。而時至今日，已經很少有人知道，誰曾是世界第三的操作系統。 ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Firefox OS，另闢蹊徑的失敗","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2016 年 2 月 5 日，是 Firefox OS 被蓋棺定論的一天：2.6 版本後，Mozilla 將正式停止開發 Firefox OS。而這，距其誕生之日起不過 5 年時間。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Firefox OS 在設計之初，便選擇了複用 Android 開源項目的代碼，這種技術路線跟當前的鴻蒙有其相似之處，也是最爲現實的選擇。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當時的這個項目被稱爲“Boot to Gecko”，底層實現被稱之爲 B2G 架構。這個架構的獨特之處在於徹底去除了 Android 中的整個 Java 層，取而代之的是通過 Gecko 渲染 Web 內容，藉此實現近乎裸機運行的性能表現。按照 Mozilla 工程師的說法，這種設計使得 B2G 在性能方面具備了非常先進的優勢，可以讓 Web 內容獲得類似原生代碼的運行表現。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/c5/c504d66c58b9466fa6328b9185147593.png","alt":"圖片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"B2G 架構","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"工程實現上，B2G 項目開發團隊證明了 Web 技術是可以用來打造智能手機的，同時整個 UI 界面也都可以用 HTML、CSS 和 JavaScript 來創建。2013 年的 MWC（世界移動通信大會）上，搭載 Firefox OS 的商業化手機正式亮相，首發設備包括 ZTE Open 和 Alcatel One Touch 兩款手機。值得一提的是，華爲後來也發佈了搭載 Firefox OS 的智能手機——Ascend Y300II。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"那次的 MWC 讓 Firefox OS 大出風頭，甚至連其公關團隊都沒想到奧斯卡也沒能搶走它的頭條，與其一起出現在了 Twitter 的熱榜上。而當時的 Firefox OS，甚至還遠沒有達到成熟的地步。看起來，它的未來好像無比光明。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"可對於 B2G 項目的成員來說，事實卻並非如此。幾乎團隊所有人都贊同，Firefox OS 無法按照 Android 和 iOS 的路子戰勝他們。功能上，贏不了 Google；設計上，幹不過 Apple。另闢蹊徑成了唯一的選擇。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"B2G 團隊的蹊徑是——廉價版智能手機。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Firefox OS 喊出了連接下一羣十億用戶的口號，選擇去攻堅以印度爲代表的新興市場。這背後的選擇基於這樣一個判斷：Firefox OS 需要規模化，而規模化只能去新興市場找尋。我之前曾經寫過一篇題爲 ","attrs":{}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwNjYzNTcyNw==&mid=2674533861&idx=1&sn=72c80318a42b600e399d1b20340e8dd8&chksm=8194ec45b6e36553c4974106cee5b02598fb9310432ca07e87c8cc19c3dc52216809e6064339&scene=21#wechat_redirect","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《印度手機市場的諸神之戰》","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"text","text":" 的文章，裏面也介紹了當前印度手機市場的亂戰，感興趣的可以看一下。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Firefox OS 設計的廉價版智能手機有多厲害呢？只需要 128 MB 的 RAM 就可運行！在遠遠落後於同期 Android 設備的硬件基礎上，Firefox OS 跑了起來，整機成本不到 35 美元。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但最終結局並不美好，極低端的硬件基礎雖然能跑起來，但不支持多任務，也沒有吸引到主流應用廠商爲其開發 Web 版本，軟件生態相當匱乏。軟件生態的點同樣是鴻蒙未來發展的一大困境，究竟在多大程度上，會有國內廠商願意開發鴻蒙版本應用？究竟有多少個人開發者願意在鴻蒙系統上貢獻自己的代碼？也正是有這樣的顧慮，當前階段下兼容安卓是無可厚非的。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"新興市場的確對手機有巨大的需求，可事實證明，他們要的是 iPhone，或者是性價比超高的智能手機，而不是廉價的智能手機。否則，他們寧願使用功能機。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而這，又引出了另一個世界第三的故事。  ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"KaiOS，當代世界第三","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"KaiOS 的 CEO Codevill 曾經跟 Firefox OS 有過一段緣分，他在 TCL 做工程師的時候曾爲 Firefox OS 系統開發過一款低端智能機。談到後來 Firefox OS 的失敗，他認爲其定位爲智能手機平臺是關鍵失誤：只要是智能手機，大家就會拿它跟 Android 系統比，如果沒有一個能跟 Android 媲美的生態系統，失敗就是必然。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"後來 Codevill 開始創業以後，挖來了 30 多位前 Mozilla 員工一起開發 KaiOS 這個平臺。他們將其定位爲——更智能的功能手機。在 KaiOS 看來，一個基於 Web 的平臺更適合從未使用過智能手機的人。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"KaiOS 與 Firefox OS 有很大的不同。例如，用戶界面是基於物理按鍵和非觸摸顯示屏設計的。應用程序圖標很小，屏幕底部有一個區域，帶有“取消”和“確認”等輸入選項。KaiOS 針對低端硬件平臺進行了優化，它只需要 256MB 的內存就可以運行，從這個層面上看跟 Firefox OS 的思路不謀而合。但更重要的點是，它支持 3G、4G、WiFi、GPS 和 NFC 等等信號模式與功能。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/08/082d704d8fb5ddec1b8f443855bf8387.png","alt":"圖片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4G KaiOS 主界面","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"覆盤 Firefox OS 的失敗時，我們發現沒有得到主流軟件廠商的支持是一個關鍵點。而 KaiOS 的運氣就好多了：建立之初便與 Facebook、Twitter 建立了合作關係，隨後更是得到了由 Google 牽頭的融資，將谷歌的關鍵服務帶給所有 KaiOS 用戶。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/51/51ca91ca4802c3cfe880cab48c5fd551.png","alt":"圖片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"KaiOS 界面中的 Google Assistant","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2019 年 5 月，KaiOS 宣佈完成了 5000 萬美元的 B 輪融資，由 Cathay Innovation 領投，跟投公司包括 Google 和 TCL。截至目前，KaiOS 宣佈其在世界範圍內已經有超過一億的用戶規模，是名副其實的世界第三大操作系統。而且其所錨定的用戶人羣，也基本上確定了不會與 Android、iOS 產生正面競爭關係，真正摸索出了一條出路，但與前兩者相比體量仍是雲泥之別。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一億用戶的規模，就可以成爲世界第三的操作系統，看起來好像也並不是那麼難？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Fuchsia 和鴻蒙","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Fuchsia 和鴻蒙可能是被放在一起對比最多的新興操作系統了：同樣是新生事物，同樣背靠大廠，同樣起於物聯網系統，同樣野心勃勃。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"早在鴻蒙還是華爲備胎的時候，Fuchsia 已經被放出風來是 Android 的替代品。爲什麼 Google 靠着 Android 系統幾乎壟斷了智能手機行業，卻還要做一個新的操作系統來革自己的命？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最可能的原因，還是在於基於 Linux 的 Android 系統的生態過於分裂。庫克就經常在 WWDC 上嘲諷 Android 的升級數據，iOS 最新版本能接近 70%的升級率，而 Android 版本很多時候的升級率甚至在個位數。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Linux 裏大部分開發者只關心服務器的世界，而 Android 爲了彌補 Linux 上的缺點又打上了一個厚厚的中間層，不斷地做着妥協。而 Google 的野心在於，它想構建一個多端適配的超級操作系統。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Fuchsia 是站在成熟操作系統肩膀上被設計出來的新型操作系統，其分層模塊化的設計使得 Fuchsia 可以非常方便地剪裁定製操作系統，以用於手機、平板、筆記本電腦等智能設備，以及路由器、智能音箱、機器人，甚至是 Google 的無人駕駛汽車。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在早前的 5 月 25 日，Google 終於向市場推出了 Fuchsia OS：從 Nest Hub 開始，這個新操作系統可以在實際的消費類設備上運行了。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/29/2935f02e815585221c478c67bba20000.png","alt":"圖片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據報道，Nest Hub 基於 Fuchsia OS 的更新會在未來幾個月內陸續推出，考慮到界面和體驗將保持不變，用戶可能不會有直接的感知。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"考慮到界面和體驗將保持不變，用戶可能不會有直接的感知","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這樣的表述有沒有覺得有些類似？沒錯，鴻蒙開始推送升級的時候，有人就發現華爲手機用戶的數據並不會被抹除，從體驗上看感知並不大。也正是因爲數據不會被清除的特性，鴻蒙再次被質疑爲套皮安卓。但在我個人看來，國內華爲手機用戶的龐大數量，註定了其並不會有一步到位的激進升級，否則用戶體驗會大打折扣。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我之前因爲工作關係，跟華爲內部另一條操作系統線的技術同學有些交流，也跟中科院軟件所、拓林思的操作系統專家們有過幾次採訪。我發現，不論是服務器操作系統，還是移動端操作系統亦或是桌面操作系統，整體行業已經在國外數十年的領先和耕耘下形成了巨大的先發、壟斷優勢。國內的操作系統領域技術人才、操作系統市場規模都太小，無法形成健康的生態讓行業真正地運轉起來。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對於鴻蒙，最大的挑戰不在於技術。事實上華爲公司在 Linux 的貢獻度上一直是國內企業的前列，技術儲備基本沒有問題。真正的難題還是開發者規模和合作夥伴生態，前者的 iOS 約有 2400 萬開發者，後者的 Android 約有 2000 萬開發者，而鴻蒙的口徑只有百萬級。合作伙伴生態層面，國內主流手機廠商對於鴻蒙的接受程度有多高存疑，主流軟件廠商對鴻蒙的投入程度存疑。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"按鴻蒙掌舵人王成錄的說法，2 億存量華爲手機的鴻蒙升級如果給用戶較好的體驗，可能讓鴻蒙生態能站住腳來，而未來的兩年則期望硬件問題能夠得到解決，在移動端捲土重來。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事實依舊很難，但在覈心技術領域想取得突破向來不是一件容易的事。當前國內對於鴻蒙的期待有些過於超前，對於鴻蒙的質疑也有些過於刺耳。如果 2 億華爲手機能成功升級到鴻蒙系統，去重之後的用戶規模應該就能追上 KaiOS 了，那麼先成爲一個世界第三的操作系統或許是當前最實際的目標。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"至於未來究竟能否實現真正意義上的萬物互聯，華爲搞不定的，難道 Google 就行了？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"飯要一口一口喫，讓時間說真話吧。","attrs":{}}]}]}