我想给元宇宙泼点冷水

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"硅谷30多年来一直在期待着虚拟现实，并不断遇到同样的问题：人们大多喜欢现实。"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"‘元宇宙的概念是尼尔·斯蒂芬森在其1992年的科幻小说《雪崩》中提出的，故事发生在不久的将来，虚拟世界和物理世界密不可分。’ 图片来源： Artyom Geodakyan\/TASS"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"对于那些不知道元宇宙概念的人来说，“元宇宙”仍然是一个主要由特殊的虚拟现实（VR）和增强现实（AR）技术访问的虚拟世界。其理念是创造一种覆盖在我们现实世界上的下一代互联网。元宇宙的人和其他人一样存在于我们的物理世界中，但可以看到其他人看不到的东西，并与之互动。可以联想下《黑客帝国》或《星际迷航》的全息甲板，或者《准备好的玩家1》里的Fortnite风格的品牌景观。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"元宇宙的概念"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/as\/%20a%20recent%20piece%20in%20Vice%20points%20out,%20%E2%80%9CThe%20Metaverse%20Has%20Always%20Been%20a%20Dystopian%20Idea.%E2%80%9D","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"并不新鲜"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这个词是尼尔·斯蒂芬森在其1992年的科幻小说《雪崩》中创造的，小说的背景设定在不久的将来，虚拟世界和物理世界密不可分。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"硅谷的科技亿万富翁们似乎"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/07\/10\/style\/metaverse-virtual-worlds.html","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"越来越相信"}]},{"type":"text","text":"一个真正的元宇宙即将出现；先前的炒作概念在微软和Facebook的绩效会议上被提及。在最近Verge的采访中，热情的扎克伯格将元宇宙"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/22588022\/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-ceo-metaverse-interview","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"描述"}]},{"type":"text","text":"为“移动互联网的继承者”，是一种“嵌入互联网，在这里，你不仅可以浏览内容，还可以参与其中。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在元宇宙话题升温的同时，这也是加密社区爆发的一年。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今年冬天，不可替代的代币（NFT）风靡了艺术界的想象力。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）引发了一个真正疯狂的比特币泡沫，然后又破灭了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"现在，扎克伯格和比尔·盖茨都没有将元宇宙的概念和加密技术联系起来。但我发现有趣的是，无论是集权者——其权力和影响力与民族国家相抗衡的科技巨头，还是分权者——仍然是一种有影响力的亚文化的加密创新者，都以大致相同的术语看待技术进步的新篇章：逃避现实。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但对此泼冷水是很必要的，要记得虚拟现实的概念——也就是元宇宙的真正含义——可以追溯到很长一段时间以前。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"虚拟现实是在1980年代由计算机科学家和技术逆向者Jaron Lanier推广的；他的公司VPL Research（Virtual Programming Languages的简称）取得了巨大的成功，玩具制造商Mattel被授权他们的“数据手套（DataGlove）”设备——一种"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Wired_glove","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有线手套"}]},{"type":"text","text":"——来创建任天堂游戏控制器。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"然而，这已经过去三十多年了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"任何形式的虚拟现实和增强现实都没能真正起飞。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"尽管2014年Facebook大张旗鼓地收购了虚拟现实耳机公司Oculus，但即使是我最喜欢技术的朋友，也很少有人跳上Oculus的列车。我只在初创公司HQs中遇到过Oculus VR设备，它是一个被遗弃的小玩意——一个随意丢弃在WiFi路由器旁边的新奇玩意。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"正如技术分析师Benedict Evans最近"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/twitter.com\/benedictevans\/status\/1418107230340141058?s=20","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在推特上所说的"}]},{"type":"text","text":"，“我儿子对Roblox（一种在线游戏平台，用户可以在该平台上创建自己的游戏供其他用户尝试）的兴趣大约是我把虚拟耳机从柜子里拿出来的1000倍。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Substack作家Paul Skallas"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PaulSkallas\/status\/1326303919316807681?s=20","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最近指出"}]},{"type":"text","text":"：“早在1999\/2000年，人们就告诉你，虚拟现实正处于接管的关键时刻。它会改变一切。现在是2020年，它在哪里？”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"虚拟现实——以及它之后的增强现实——遇到了一个持续不断的问题：人们大多喜欢现实。自从有了荧屏，自从有了电影院，人们就一直喜欢视觉娱乐。但是，和所有娱乐一样，视觉娱乐也有它的时间和位置。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"还记得Oculus眼镜吗？我有一对。它使用起来很糟糕。谁希望电子邮件通知整天模糊他们的视野？我的手机足够分散注意力了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"可穿戴技术和增强现实的结合很快就分道扬镳了。增强现实变成了有趣的Snapchat过滤器，让你看起来像一个皮克斯角色。可穿戴设备变成了苹果手表，可以计算你的步幅，并在你心脏病发作时提醒你。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"两个因素决定了新技术是否流行：能力和激励。并不是所有的事情技术都可以做（能力），也不是所有的东西人们都想要（激励）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"回想21世纪中期，或者重温David Fincher2010年的经典作品《社交网络》。社交网络的基石早在扎克伯格创建"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/facebook","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Facebook"}]},{"type":"text","text":"之前就存在了。事实上，一些社交网络已经存在。还记得Friendster和MySpace吗？能力就在那里。但激励是什么？为了让人们成群结队地加入他的社交网络，扎克伯格增加了早期社交网络所缺乏的两个因素：排他性和地位。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"当Facebook首次发布时，只有那些就读于一小部分著名大学的人才能加入。我2005年高中毕业，我很惭愧地说，Facebook影响了我的择校。早期的Facebook是一个加分项。在这里，你在来到校园之前就找到了朋友，巩固了新生关系，分享了醉酒和尴尬的回忆。我对元宇宙的支持者的问题是：元宇宙给日常生活带来了什么？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我以前用过Oculus眼镜。我发现它们有一种奇怪的时间扭曲效应。当我摘下它们时，我隐约感到疲惫。这场大流行提醒了所有人，Zoom电话与拥抱你的妈妈是两码事，我怀疑Zoom疲惫的员工是否有兴趣升级到元宇宙工作——不管这意味着什么。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Dazed的一项"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.dazeddigital.com\/science-tech\/article\/53653\/1\/dazed-studio-trend-report-2031-a-future-world","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"新的青年调查报告"}]},{"type":"text","text":"称，只有9%的年轻人希望留在社交媒体上；厌倦了用数字替代现实生活的人，可能比在家工作的Zoom疲劳军团更广泛。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"扎克伯格这样的科技寡头，拥有索伦式野心，用“一枚戒指”统治所有人，似乎是负责建设新世界的最糟糕选择。我更同情加密社区对元宇宙的初步兴趣。在我看来，加密技术的前景是，它有可能在一个过度集权的世界中引发权力下放，向下一代的马丁·路德扮演古腾堡的角色。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"元宇宙提出了一个我们混乱无序的世界的平滑化和合理化版本。加密技术面临的最紧迫的问题是：为什么加密技术对每个人都重要？如果加密技术要真正具有革命性，那么它就必须给出一个答案，将数字生活的形式缩小到人类的水平，而不是达到自大狂的水平。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"作者介绍"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"Sean Monahan"},{"type":"text","text":" 是洛杉矶的一名作家和趋势预测家。他与人共同创立了K-Hole，这是一家趋势预测公司，以创造“核心（normcore）”一词而闻名。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文链接"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2021\/aug\/10\/techies-think-were-on-the-cusp-of-a-virtual-world-called-the-metaverse-im-skeptical","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2021\/aug\/10\/techies-think-were-on-the-cusp-of-a-virtual-world-called-the-metaverse-im-skeptical"}]}]}]}