so let me give you a famous example, a famous failure and a famous success of the law of diffusion of innovation.
所以讓我來給你講一個著名的案例，關於創新擴散定律的一個著名的失敗案例和一個著名的成功案例。
first the famous failure.it’s a commercial example.
首先是這個失敗的案例。這是一個商業失敗案例。
as we said before a second ago, the recipe for success is money and the right people and the right market conditions, right? you should have success then.
就像我們剛纔說的，成功的要素是錢，好同事，好的大環境，對吧？擁有這些你就應該成功。
look at TiVo.from the time TiVo came out about eight or nine years ago to this current day. they’re the single, highest quality product on the market, hands-down（唾手可得的，毫無疑問）, there is no dispute.
看下TiVo。從TiVo出現到現在的8-9年間。他們是市場上唯一有高質量產品的公司，這一點毫無疑問。
they’re extremely well-funded, their market conditions were fantastic.
他們資金相當充足，市場大環境一片好。
I mean, we use TiVo as a verb.I TiVo stuff on my piece of junk（垃圾，老舊的，不中用的） DVR all the time
我的意思是，我們可以把TiVo當作動詞。我經常把東西蒂沃到我那臺老舊的華納數碼視頻錄像機裏面。
but TiVo’s commercial failure.they’ve never made money.
但是TiVo失敗了。他們沒掙到錢。
and when they went IPO, their stock was at about thirty or forty dollars and then plummeted（垂直下落，驟然跌落）, and it’s never traded above ten.
當他們上市的時候，他們的股價是30-40美金，然後斷崖式下跌，再也沒超過10了。
in fact, I don’t think it’s even traded above six, except for a couple of little spikes.
事實上，我認爲他的股價甚至沒有超過6元，除了一些小峯值。
because you see, when TiVo launched their product, they told us all what they had.
因爲當TiVo發佈他們的產品的時候，他們告訴了我們他們產品怎麼樣。
they said we have a product that pauses live TV, skips commercials, rewinds(倒回，回看) live TV and memorizes your viewing habits without you even asking.
他們說：“我們的產品能夠暫停電視直播，跳過廣告，回看電視直播以及默默記住你的觀看愛好。”
and the cynical majority said,we don’t believe you, we don’t need it, we don’t like it, you are scaring us.
然後保守的大多數就會說：我們不相信你，我們不需要它，我們不喜歡它，你在嚇我們呢。
what if they had said,if you are the kind of person who likes to have total control over every aspect of your life, boy, do we have a product for you?
如果他們這麼說：如果你是想要掌控自己人生的人，兄弟，哥幾個給你做個產品如何？
it pauses live TVs, skips commercials, memorizes your viewing habits, etc and etc.
它能夠暫停電視直播，跳過廣告，記住你的觀看愛好，諸如此類。
people don’t buy what you do, they buy why you do it, and what you do simply serves as the prove of what you believe.
人們不買你的產品而買你的信念，你做什麼就會證明你相信什麼。
now let me give you a successful example of the law of diffusion of innovation.
讓我給你們介紹一個關於創新擴散定律的成功案例。
in the summer of 1963, 250,000 people showed up on the mall in Washington to hear Dr. King’s speak.
1963年夏天，250000人出現在華盛頓廣場去聽馬丁博士的演講。
they sent out no invitations, and there was no website to check the date.
他們沒有發出邀請函，當時也沒有網站去查看日期。
how do you do that? well, Dr King wasn’t the only man in America, who was a great orator.he wasn’t the only man in America who suffered in a pre-civil rights America.
怎麼做到的？馬丁博士不是美國唯一的傑出演說家。他不是唯一一個在民權運動之前遭受苦難的美國人。
in fact, some of his ideas were bad.
事實上，他的一些想法不咋地。
but he had a gift.he didn’t go around telling people what needed to change in America.
但是他有種天賦。他沒有四處遊說告訴人們美國需要什麼變化。
he went around and told people what he believed.I believe, I believe, I believe, he told people.
他四處遊說告訴人們他相信什麼。我相信，我相信，我相信，他給人們這樣說。
and people who believed what he believed took his cause（接受某人的觀念）, and they made it their own（變成自己的東西）, and they told people.
而那些與他有同樣信念的人受到了他的啓發，他們也開始把自己的信念告訴別人。
and some of those people created structures to get the word out （幫助宣傳）to even more people.
其中一些人把這些東西組織起來，傳播給更多人。
and lo and behold, 250,000 people showed up on the right day, on the right time, to hear him speak.
瞧瞧，250000人在同一天、同一時間去聽他的演講。
how many of them showed up for him?zero, they showed up for themselves.
多少人是爲他而來？沒有一個，他們是爲自己而來。
it’s what they believed about the America that got them to travel in a bus for eight hours to stand in the sun in Washington in the middle of August.
是他們自己對美國的信念使得他們坐8小時汽車，站在8月中旬的華盛頓太陽底下聽他演講。
it’s what they believed, then it wasn’t about black verses white, twenty five percent of the audience was white.
是他們所相信的，而不是黑白人種族對抗，25%的聽衆是白人。
Dr King believed that there are two types of laws in this world.those that are made by a higher authority and those that are made by men.
馬丁博士相信世上有2種法律。一種是權力機構定的，一種是大衆定的。
and not until all the laws that are made by men are consistent with the laws that are made by the higher authority will we live in a just world.
只有當人民自己制定的法律和權力機構制定的法律保持一致的時候，我們才能生活在公正的世界裏。
it just so happened that the civil-rights movement was the perfect thing to help him bring his cause to life（把目標變成現實）.
碰巧，民權運動是幫助他實現目標的最佳途徑。
we followed not for him but for ourselves.
我們不是追隨他，是追隨我們自己。
and by the way, he gave the I Have A Dream speech not I Have A Plan speech.
順便說下，他的演講叫“我有一個夢想”而不是“我有一個計劃”。
listen to politicians now with their comprehensive 12-point plans, they’re not inspiring anybody.
聽一下現在政客們的綜合12點計劃，這不激勵任何人。
because there are leaders and there are those who lead.leaders hold a position of power or authority, but those who lead inspire us.
因爲一種是領導，一種是領導者。領導擁有權力、地位，但是領導者激勵我們。
whether they’re individuals or organizations, we follow those who lead not because we have to but because we want to.
不管是個人還是機構，我們追隨領導者，不是因爲我們不得不追隨，而是我們想要追隨。
we follow those who lead not for them, but for ourselves.
我們跟隨領導者不是爲了他們，而是爲了我們。
and it’s those who start with why that have the ability to inspire those around them or find others who inspire them.
就是那些思考“爲什麼”的人能夠激勵周圍的人或者找到激勵自己的人。
thank you very much.
感謝大家。