數據產品經理｜關於產品續費率的思考

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"很多常見的 C 端付費產品（工具類偏多，如 iOS 上很多付費訂閱應用）和 SaaS 軟件，日常重點關注的就是產品續費情況。所以接下來主要圍繞續費率展開思考，希望能帶來一些啓發。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"續費率 = 到期後續訂用戶數 / 付費訂閱到期用戶數"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"主要分爲 2 步說明："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":"1","normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"什麼時候開始「提升續費率」這項任務？"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"如何找到提升續費率的關鍵點？"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在開始想如何提升續費率之前，一定要弄清楚，「提升續費率」這項任務，是不是一定要做，以及什麼階段開始做。因爲「續費率」看似是一個很容易決策需要提升的指標。但其實是否要立馬去做還需要進一步論證，避免最後造成資源浪費和用戶干擾。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在開始「提升續費率」這項任務之前，需要論證，負責的應用續費率，在行業中是屬於什麼水準。一方面是避免資源投入產出低，另外也可以在做這個任務之前，預計到應用續費率天花板，這樣能提前預判，方便續費率目標制定。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"判斷應用續費率參考依據可以先看行業標杆產品的續費情況（從這項依據判斷會比較困難，同行數據並不是很容易就能知道；另外一種情況，就是自己負責的，本身就是行業 TOP 應用）。其次是找到未續費流失用戶，定義不符合產品定位的目標羣體。將這部分用戶剔除，就是理論續費用戶上限。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"舉例：一款共享汽車應用，付費訂閱到期用戶數 1000 人，到期後未續訂用戶數 500 人，當前續費率 50%，這 500 人中，其中有 300 人未綁定駕照，並且用戶屬性是18歲以下。可以簡單得出結論："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"續費率最高能做到： （500-300）/ 1000 + 50% = 70%"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"},{"type":"size","attrs":{"size":10}}],"text":"註明：用戶屬性 18 歲以下不用考慮。因爲這部分人羣和產品定位不符，18 歲以下用戶還在上學，不會用到共享汽車，以及考慮到駕照問題。所以與產品定位不符。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這樣在開始階段，就能有預判，產品續費率最多隻能到 70%，目標續費率能帶來多少用戶數與銷售額，需要投入多少資源，以及提升難度。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"接下來探討"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"如何找到提升續費率的關鍵點。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"續費率指標本身涉及到影響因素太多，包括：產品業務場景、功能體驗、性能、流量渠道、價格等等。可以先進行用戶分羣，通過共性來尋找原因。未續費用戶羣體可以分爲以下幾類羣體："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"版本降級用戶羣體（部分產品會有多個版本，例如：免費版/付費版或者基礎版/專業版）；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"非產品目標人羣體；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"新用戶未續費（訂閱 1 次）；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"老用戶未續費（訂閱 2 次及以上）。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"清楚每個羣體的用戶數以及佔比，然後根據每個細分羣體用戶數以及佔比權重，結合當前可利用的資源，排出優先級，判斷優先處理哪一部分羣體哪一類問題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"這裏還需要說明：爲什麼劃分出新用戶和老用戶未續費羣體？而不是其他劃分方式？一方面，根據經驗得出，新用戶和老用戶羣體。他們的行爲能直接體現出流量渠道以及產品功能上手程度。所以這樣劃分更快速發現問題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而且這裏所說的新用戶和老用戶，是以「訂閱次數」來定義，直接就是續費行爲，能直接體現到續費率指標上。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"當然這裏也有其他一些劃分維度，把「訂閱次數」作爲用戶行爲指標之一，這部分可以根據負責的業務來判斷如何劃分合適，不影響整體思考流程，最終還是殊途同歸。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"劃分出用戶羣體之後，再拿到新用戶和老用戶基礎數據和行爲數據。到這一步就會有部分結論輸出："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":"1","normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"每種羣體用戶數分別佔比多少；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"根據佔比權重、產品定位、操作難度確定優先做哪一撥人羣；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":3,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"開始針對具體人羣出對應解決方案。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"接下來針對每類人羣，展開討論。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"版本降級這類人羣比較直觀，如果佔比很高，說明付費版本沒有留住用戶，低於用戶期望。出現這種情況的原因只能是產品定位問題，產品上沒有抓到業務場景。產品沒有幫助用戶解決問題。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"非產品目標人羣佔比很高本質上是流量渠道問題（可以時間拉長，分2 - 3個週期對比分析，驗證結論）。針對這種情況可以有幾種方式："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":null,"normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"找更精準流量渠道。這是解決方案之一，但是實際情況是：有些應用主要流量渠道本身就很少，推廣方式單一。比如：產品只在在 App Store 上架，只有市場自然流量。其他渠道成本很高或者乾脆就沒有開闢新渠道。如果是這種情況就得尋找其他方式；"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果是新上線產品。可以嘗試根據這部分用戶共性特徵修正產品定位，把產品方向偏到這類羣體上。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"關於未續費新老用戶羣體，用戶在訂閱週期內也許就已經沒用產品功能，沒有再次訂閱只不過是一層表象。這類用戶可以理解爲流失用戶。也就是問題轉化爲："},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"如何挽回流失用戶？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"首先，根據產品特性，需要定義好流失用戶。再來收集產品內部信息、外部信息。將當前情況進行梳理之後。明確流失原因和嚴重程度。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"流失用戶的定義是在一段時間內未進行關鍵操作行爲的用戶（時間長度和關鍵操作行爲和產品有關）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"接下來以下相關信息需要整理過一遍："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":null,"normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"產品內部信息 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。"}]}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"然後根據上面劃分的新用戶和老用戶歸類彙總問題，針對性解決。常見的一般性問題："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"numberedlist","attrs":{"start":null,"normalizeStart":1},"content":[{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":1,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"新用戶"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":2,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"用戶上手難度大，缺少指引"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":3,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"感受不到與競品差別"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":4,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"產品設計缺陷"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":5,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"新版本更新的影響"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":6,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"..."}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":7,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"老用戶（用戶逐漸喪失對產品的使用慾望，關鍵的使用行爲逐漸減少）"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":8,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"產品核心內容單一"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":9,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"缺乏不同用戶的生存空間"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":10,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"產品設計缺陷"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":11,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"..."}]}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"針對流失用戶可以重點檢查一項數據，即用戶是否有走完產品核心流程。根據經驗來看，多數業務用戶流失就是因爲產品核心流程，用戶沒有深度參與。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"對流失用戶排查之後，明確流失用戶具體原因，然後針對流失原因給出對應方案，再根據結論完善流失預警機制和挽回流失用戶方案。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"以上是對產品續費率的理論層面分析，後續有機會再對每個問題和對應方案進行研究說明。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/ed/ed6fbe981d2ca715d15bf2ef8d2dff44.png","alt":null,"title":"","style":[{"key":"width","value":"100%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":"","fromPaste":false,"pastePass":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}