群雄逐鹿，谁会赢得自动驾驶之战？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自动驾驶技术行业今天正处于一种奇怪的状态。过去多年来，整个行业已经在自动驾驶技术上投入了庞大的资金，其中许多公司都拥有了看起来跑得不错的自动驾驶汽车原型。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但据我所知，只有一家公司推出了完全无人驾驶的商业出租车服务 — Waymo，而且只有一家公司 — Nuro —在公共道路上运行着无人驾驶的商业递送服务。你可能会认为这些公司可以迅速扩张，充分利用早期的领先优势，但他们似乎都没有这样做。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"同时，包括Cruise和Mobileye在内的其他一些从业者也表示，他们计划在2023年之前推出大规模的商业服务。但是，许多自动驾驶公司都一再推迟了他们曾经预设的发布期限，因此目前我们无法确定这些企业的计划是否能够实现。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"简而言之，预测未来几年的进展是一个挑战。因此本文要做的预测不是一项而是八项：我将未来分解为八种可能的场景，每种场景的出现概率都很大。希望这种预测方法可以很好地展现当今自动驾驶公司所采用的多种策略。从现在开始再过十年，我们就能回顾今日，看到哪些公司或方法位于正确的轨道上。但在目前，我们能做的只有猜测。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1、Waymo获胜（20％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/43\/dd\/438104b5bf2bc54137f5d6b5ec6378dd.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自从十多年前谷歌推出自动驾驶汽车计划以来，Waymo就一直被视为自动驾驶行业的技术领导者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在乐观的情况下，Waymo将保持并扩大其当前的领先优势。它将把无人出租车服务从凤凰城市区的一个角落扩展到整个凤凰城，然后稳步扩展到其他都会区。运营最大的无人出租车服务可以让Waymo获得比其他任何公司更多的实际驾驶数据和运营经验，这可以让它进一步改善软件并保持领先地位。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"那么为什么我只给Waymo 20％的概率？虽然Waymo看起来仍然是技术层面的领导者，但它并没有像几年前许多人（显然包括Waymo自己的领导者）预期的那样充分利用自己的领先优势。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在2018年，Waymo宣布了购买“最多”82,000辆汽车来壮大自己的出租车队，这表明该公司认为它正处于大规模商业扩张的前夜。但是今天，它的车队仍然只有几百辆汽车而已。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我不知道Waymo为何进步这么缓慢。也许他们的软件对凤凰城郊区做的优化太多了；也许他们的硬件或后端支持成本太高而难以盈利；或者Waymo希望在大规模扩张之前解决一些长期存在的安全性或可靠性问题。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但无论出现什么问题，它应该都不会那么快消亡，这样其他公司也能从中看到希望。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2、另一家无人出租车公司获胜（25％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/e5\/dd\/e56a7bcbe0c5acdec8853713c5a928dd.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"很多公司都在推行与Waymo相同的基础策略，也就是建立和运营一个无人出租车队。这些公司包括："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"bulletedlist","content":[{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Cruise（由通用、本田等公司所有）"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Argo（福特和大众所有）"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Motional（由现代和汽车零部件供应商Aptiv所有）"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Zoox（一家初创公司，最近被亚马逊收购）"}]}]},{"type":"listitem","attrs":{"listStyle":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Aurora（一家初创公司，最近被优步的自动驾驶计划收购）"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果Waymo失败了，我认为问题最有可能在业务执行上：Waymo依旧拥有行业领先的技术，但无法迅速扩张来充分利用它。相比在一个大都会市区中运营一个几百辆出租车的服务来说，在数十个城市中运营数十万辆出租车的服务完全是两回事。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由汽车制造商支持的公司，如Cruise、Argo和Motional，可能拥有更大的能力来迅速扩大自动驾驶汽车的生产规模。亚马逊显然在处理大型物流问题方面具有丰富的经验。而且Aurora与优步有着密切的关系，后者可能会为Aurora提供对自身租车网络的优先访问权。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"3、特斯拉（和Comma.ai）获胜（5％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/12\/b7\/1294edde96177406b3899db41a21feb7.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这会让特斯拉的粉丝兴奋不已，但我认为这的确有可能：特斯拉长远更有优势。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"特斯拉获胜的情况是，它可以获取从客户的车辆收集的大量现实世界的驾驶数据。如果你认为训练数据不足是改善自动驾驶算法的主要瓶颈所在，那么这可能是特斯拉一个显著优势。与其他研究自动驾驶技术的公司相比，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对风险的偏好也更大。马斯克愿意在道路上使用未经验证的技术，这可能会加速特斯拉的发展，尽管这会带来更大的致命事故风险。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一方面，特斯拉也有一些明显的劣势。该公司的商业模式（向最终用户销售汽车）意味着激光雷达传感器和高密度地图会因为财务因素而难以部署。埃隆·马斯克试图将这种情况说成是正面的，他说激光雷达是“拐杖”。但事实是，几乎其他所有公司都在使用激光雷达和高清地图，因为大家认为这是有用的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"更坦率来说，如果看一看特斯拉软件实践中的运行视频，很难得出结论说特斯拉处于领先地位，甚至很难说他们在追上领先者。特斯拉称为“完全自动驾驶Beta”（很不幸他们取了这样的名字）的软件在Waymo汽车多年前就能的场景中经常犯糊涂。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"par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Hotz创立的自动驾驶创业公司。Comma正在构建旨在智能手机上运行的开源自动驾驶系统。Comma的策略是让早期采用者能够改造自己的汽车，从Comma基于智能手机的软件中获取方向盘输入，然后Comma会使用从早期客户那里收集的数据来进一步改进软件，方法基本和Tesla相同。像特斯拉一样，Comma也避开了激光雷达，认为它可以通过智能手机级相机实现足够的性能。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果说特斯拉是这个行业中的苹果公司，那么Hotz的最终目标是让Comma成为Android。也就是说，如果特斯拉成为自动驾驶技术的领导者，那么其他汽车制造商将需要购买自动驾驶技术授权才能与特斯拉竞争。Hotz希望Comma的软件成为汽车制造商的行业标准，就像Android是非苹果生产的智能手机的行业标准一样。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4、Mobileye（及其合作伙伴）获胜（10％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/ed\/ed10de9589d205c74369cb32c60b3c5e.jpeg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"来自Mobileye的自动驾驶汽车在底特律的街道上穿行。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"英特尔于2017年收购的以色列公司Mobileye具有一些显著优势。作为高级驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）的领先提供商，Mobileye与许多汽车制造商都有合作关系。该公司利用这些关系从众多客户的汽车中获取数据，从而使Mobileye能够获得大量现实世界中的道路数据。Mobileye在ADAS市场上的主导地位也让它积累了丰富的工程人才资源。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"与特斯拉一样（但与Waymo等公司不同），Mobileye认为，行业可以通过逐步改进ADAS来实现完全的无人驾驶。Mobileye希望能提供越来越出色的ADAS，直到某个时候客户可以放开手，在驾驶员座位上小睡片刻。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"同时，Mobileye并没有像特斯拉那样面临财务约束。有英特尔母公司的支持，Mobileye拥有同时探索多种技术方法的资源。像Waymo一样，Mobileye在激光雷达上进行试验，并在公共街道上测试完全自动驾驶技术（测试时让安全员坐在方向盘后）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Mobileye的计划是将其芯片、传感器和软件授权给一系列客户。因此，如果Mobileye的技术行之有效，它可以让一些较小的公司来尝鲜。例如，递送服务初创公司Udelv最近宣布，他们计划在2023年至2028年之间在至少35,000个交付机器人中使用Mobileye的技术。Mobileye希望在几年内拥有几十家像Udelv这样的客户。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":3},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"行业最爱？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Mobileye的胜利对于其他汽车制造商来说也会是个好消息，因为这意味着它们不太可能受到Waymo、特斯拉或其他暴发户的压制。Mobileye的主要业务是向汽车制造商提供技术授权，因此如果Mobileye开发出领先的自动驾驶技术栈，汽车制造商应该能够轻松地将其集成到自己的现有产品线中。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Mobileye已发布了一些令人印象深刻的技术视频。但是，人们很难只根据一些视频来判断自动驾驶技术的发展水平。许多公司都已经发布了令人印象深刻的视频，但大多数公司对自己的技术并没有足够的信心，所以还没有推出自动驾驶商业服务。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Mobileye的业务模式（将其技术授权给从汽车制造商到运营送货车队的公司的各种客户）也可能会阻碍这家公司的发展。为一种特定的应用开发自动驾驶技术已经足够困难了。Mobileye希望开发一种能够在各种应用场景中良好运行的单一技术栈，那可能是不现实的。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"5、中国获胜（15％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/cc\/7c\/cc43570da6238fc8803f3a3deb85fd7c.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2021年4月，小马智行的自动驾驶汽车在北京行驶。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自动驾驶领域有很多国际合作项目，本田和大众汽车等海外公司会投资美国的自动驾驶项目，英特尔收购了以色列的Mobileye。但是中国基本上在自己玩自己的。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"中国有一些稳定发展的自动驾驶公司，这些公司的进展在很大程度上独立于西方国家。中国领先的自动驾驶公司包括AutoX、小马智行、文远知行、搜索巨头百度和叫车公司滴滴出行。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"去年12月，AutoX成为中国第一家在公共道路上测试完全自动驾驶车辆的公司，尽管这只是纯技术的测试，而不是商业化自动驾驶服务。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我没有看过关于这些公司的多少报道，所以我无法深入探讨它们的前景。但基本上很清楚的是，如果美国自动驾驶公司将面临严峻的海外竞争，则这种竞争最有可能来自中国。（除中美外，最强大的海外公司可能是俄罗斯的Yandex。）从理论上讲，中国权力集中而相对称职的政府可以找到一些方法来加速国内自动驾驶技术的发展，例如建立支持性基础设施或是让企业拥有更大的自由度。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是到目前为止，中国公司似乎并没有明显领先于美国公司，因此我认为这种可能性并没有那么大。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"6、自动驾驶卡车获胜（5％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/58\/09\/58f35e8ecfa75e1a48bfyyf5df8e6009.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自动驾驶汽车得到了最多的关注，但是很少有自动驾驶公司认为卡车（而不是汽车）将是自动驾驶技术的第一大应用。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"诸如Kodiak、Embark和TuSimple之类的公司专注于实现长途货运路线的自动化。另外两家公司（Waymo和Aurora）正在对冲赌注，同时研究卡车和出租车项目。送货初创公司Nuro（我将在下文中详细讨论）也在去年收购了Ike加入了长途卡车运输行业。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"其中一些公司正在设计仅在高速公路上自主运行的系统。在这种模式下，驾驶员将把卡车开到高速公路附近的中转站，然后拖车被转移到自动驾驶卡车上。无人卡车会在高速公路上将拖车拖到另一个城市，然后拖车将被切换到另一辆有人卡车上，后者走完最后几英里的复杂城市道路，将货物运至最终目的地。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这种模式有许多优点。高速公路是受控的环境，通常没有行人、骑自行车的人和其他障碍物。它们通常标记清晰，并且没有复杂的交叉路口。这些因素可能会让高速公路驾驶自动化的任务变得相对简单。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"从理论上讲，公司可以将自动驾驶卡车从早期成功中获得的数据和经验用到其他市场，最终发展成为各种自动驾驶应用的领跑者。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但是，我仍然对自动驾驶卡车持怀疑态度，原因很简单：尽管高速公路在某些层面上更容易导航，但潜在的失败成本却非常高。如果满载的半挂卡车在每小时70英里的速度下失控，则可能造成巨大的损失。而且没什么方法来渐进测试这种技术。这些公司迟早都需要按下按钮，让卡车以高速公路的速度自行驾驶。我怀疑短期内并不会有人有足够的信心承担这种风险，或者有监管者愿意承担这种风险。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"7、送货机器人获胜（10％）"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/8d\/20\/8d1324c623736952e1cbf226bc1a5220.jpg","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Nuro最近宣布了一个试点项目，在休斯顿递送Domino的比萨饼。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Nuro是另一家计划运送物品而非人员的公司。但是，Nuro并没有让高速公路上的大型高速卡车自动化，而是研发了针对住宅区街道优化的小型低速送货机器人（Nuro的车辆比人行道机器人更大、更快）。这是自动驾驶车辆的一种有吸引力的初始应用场景，因为以每小时最高25英里（40km\/h）的速度行驶的小型机器人不太可能撞死什么人。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"两年前我提出了一个论点，说专注于低速场景的Nuro等初创公司可能会击败Waymo。我在那篇文章中提到的另一家初创公司是Voyage，该公司正在佛罗里达州的一个退休社区发展低速出租车服务。我认为，在受控环境中专注于低速运营将大大简化技术挑战，让这些公司比试图为整个都市地区运营全速出租车服务的公司更早进入市场。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我认为，一旦这些公司掌握了简单场景的自动驾驶技术，它们便可以利用自己收集的数据和运营经验来推向高端市场，并最终击败专注于更具挑战性驾驶任务的公司（如Waymo）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这个预测并不怎么符合现实。的确，Waymo很难将自己的技术大规模推向市场，但是目前尚不清楚像Nuro和Voyage这样的初创公司是否能做得更好。Voyage在今年早些时候被Cruise收购。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Nuro仍然是一家独立公司，并且看起来正在发展壮大。但是，Nuro的处境似乎与Waymo类似。例如，本周早些时候，Nuro启动了一个为Domino交付比萨饼的试点项目——这是最早于2019年宣布的合作。像Waymo一样，Nuro似乎已经处于大规模商业运营的前夜，可是黎明已经持续两三年了。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这并不一定意味着Nuro会做错什么事情——它可能只是需要多年的实践才能让自动送货车跑起来。但是这种进展速度确实表明，专注于低速交付机器人并不是商业化的捷径。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"尽管如此，事实上Nuro仍然是真正运营商业自动驾驶服务的少数公司之一。而且它可能会一点点积累经验，这将让它在未来几年内迅速扩展。如果Nuro确实取得了成功，那对Zoox来说可能是个好消息。虽然Zoox主要致力于建立出租车服务，但它可以轻松转型，为其母公司亚马逊制造无人驾驶送货车。此外，如果Nuro获得成功，我们可以期望其他许多构建自动驾驶技术栈的公司将Udelv作为潜在的合作伙伴或收购目标。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"8、别的什么人获胜（10％）"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"技术市场总有办法给我们带来惊喜。或许我可能还没有注意到的一些初创公司注定要让上述资金雄厚的公司颜面扫地。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一种可能性是“人人都赢”。也许自动驾驶不是一个问题，而是一系列单独的问题，每个问题都需要精心设计的技术栈来解决。也许自动驾驶出租车、自动驾驶车辆和自动驾驶卡车是三个不同的市场，每个市场都将由各自的公司集团主导。也许这一技术的早期版本将需要大量的人工监督，我们将逐步从人类驱动的车辆过渡到无人驾驶的车辆。我认为这种结果可能性不大，但并不是不存在。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另一个可能性是没有人能赢得胜利：即使经历了数年的挫折，自动驾驶仍是一个比人们想象的还要困难的问题，而且要花几十年而不是几年的时间才能解决。在这种情况下，我们可能会再度走进“人工智能冬天”，许多公司都会缩减在这一领域的研究。再说一次，我认为这种结果可能性不大，但并不是不存在。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"作者介绍"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Timothy B.Lee是一位高级记者，他的报道涵盖技术政策、区块链技术和交通运输的未来。他住在华盛顿特区。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"原文链接："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/cars\/2021\/04\/who-will-win-the-self-driving-race-here-are-8-possibilities\/?fileGuid=hf3RWPkIQz0o9odI","title":"","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/cars\/2021\/04\/who-will-win-the-self-driving-race-here-are-8-possibilities\/"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":4},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"福利推荐"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在数字化的浪潮下，掌握数字化能力，已经不能算是竞争优势了，而是会逐渐成为起跑线问题。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但，到底什么叫数字化？什么是数字化转型？和信息化的关系是什么？技术人要学点什么技能呢？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"推荐 IBM 副合伙人付晓岩的《说透数字化转型》专栏，为你梳理一整套数字化人才成长指南，详解 6 大转型关键技术，15+ 经典案例，帮助你建立一套系统的转型知识框架。早鸟 + 口令「shuzihua8」到手 ¥89，原价 ¥129，扫码免费试读👇"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/1b\/cc\/1b17e9bb4e1a751496da02a4ddc19ecc.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static.geekbang.org\/infoq\/5c6947ecc1649.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}}]}