美團公開外賣配送中的“預估到達時間”算法規則

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"9月10日，美團稱於近日收到了市場監管總局等部門關於算法的指導意見，邀請了不同相關方一起探討配送時間的計算規則——通過騎手懇談會收集意見，邀請外部專家學者討論算法的調整方向和細節，並在部分城市進行了試點和用戶調研。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"同時，美團首次"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/LgXP2IRbyidRSSH9U7q5RQ","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"公開"}]},{"type":"text","text":"外賣配送中的“預估到達時間”算法規則。根據美團的公開資料，其算法測算出的“預估到達時間”其實不是一個時間，而是四個時間，即“模型預估時間”和“三層保護時間”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"考慮到模型預估時間與現實情況不符將導致騎手配送壓力增加的情況，算法從城市特性、配送過程分段累加和距離三個維度，額外測算出了三個時間，並從四個時間計算結果裏，選擇一個最長的給騎手。而用戶在訂單頁面看到的，就是算法選定的"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"最長時間"},{"type":"text","text":"："}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/ef\/efde37c5df5baa08af1059a60e4a0ed4.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"據瞭解，經過騎手懇談會後，美團根據各方意見優化了算法策略。目前，有兩項正在持續迭代的調整："},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"一是在異常場景下爲騎手提供時間補充"},{"type":"text","text":"，二是"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strong"}],"text":"在部分情況下，將“預估到達時間”變爲“預估到達時間段”"},{"type":"text","text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"美團表示，將通過兩種方式爲騎手延長配送時間，一種是通過歷史數據識別出長期出餐慢的商家，任何騎手配送該商家餐品，都會提前自動獲得配送時間的延長。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另外，美團梳理出了一些異常場景，比如在商家接單環節，可能會出現因特殊節假日或外賣營銷活動導致單量激增的異常場景；在騎手到點等餐環節，可能會出現遇到長期出餐慢的商家\/突發性出餐慢商家；在騎手在途環節，可能會遇到惡劣天氣、封路；在騎手末端交付環節，可能會出現“小區難進入”的情況。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"遇到上述異常場景（異常場景仍在持續迭代中），將用人工干預的方式爲騎手提供時間補充。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今年上半年，對於騎手在配送過程中可能遇到的一些難度較高的特殊場景，如遠距離、單量多等場景，美團在這些場景進行了試點。當用戶下單，訂單顯示的預估到達時間，將由之前的“時間點”變爲“時間段”，未來將在更多場景和更多區域推廣這個算法改進。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/infoq\/f5\/f5036b9d347cb0d47ef985a50249711b.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"美團外賣訂單頁面顯示的預估到達時間"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"“外賣配送場景複雜且多變，騎手在每一個環節都可能面臨一些突發狀況，‘預估到達時間’並不是完美的，但我們始終在思考如何讓它更完善更合理。”美團在公告中說道。"}]}]}