谷歌前CEO发出警告：元宇宙对人类未必是好事，AI技术是“伪神”

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最近一段时间，元宇宙概念大火，不少人甚至将其视为互联网的“终极形态”。但与此同时，也有人给元宇宙泼上一盆冷水。"}]}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"谷歌前 CEO 给元宇宙泼冷水"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"10 月 28 日，Facebook 正式宣布改名为“Meta”，公司业务将以元宇宙优先。Facebook 的这一举动迅速引发热议，谷歌前任首席执行官 Eric Schmidt 近日对此表达了自己不太乐观的观点。他在"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/10\/30\/opinion\/eric-schmidt-ai.html","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"接受采访"}]},{"type":"text","text":"时表示，虽然相信 Meta 力捧的元宇宙很快会“无处不在”，但他警告称，元宇宙“不一定是对人类社会最好的东西。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Eric Schmidt 表示：“所有谈论元宇宙的人都在谈论比当前世界更令人满意的世界——你更富有、更英俊、更美丽、更强大、更快。因此，在某些年份，人们会选择戴着眼罩在元宇宙花更多时间。谁来制定规则？这个世界将变得更加数字化，而不是物理化。这对人类社会而言不一定是件好事情。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"此外，他对于人工智能技术未来的发展也表示出担忧。他认为，人工智能技术是一个巨大的“伪神”，可以创造不健康的准社会关系。“AI 将无处不在，最好的 AI 朋友是什么样子，尤其是对孩子而言？AI 战争又是什么样的？AI 能感知到我们感知不到的现实吗？AI 能看到人类无法理解的东西吗？”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"公开信息显示，Eric Schmidt 曾于 2001 - 2010 年担任谷歌 CEO。2010 年 4 月，Eric Schmidt 将 CEO 职务移交给拉里·佩奇，之后继续担任谷歌执行董事长，直到2020 年 5 月离任。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事实上，除了 Eric Schmidt，也有不少人对元宇宙和 AI 表达过担忧。比如马斯克此前就曾表示，当我们在没有终止开关的情况下构建 AI 时，我们是在“召唤恶魔”，而人类最终可能会像史蒂夫沃兹尼亚克所说的那样成为家庭宠物（如果我们幸运的话。）"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Eric Schmidt 在谈到马斯克的这条警告时也表示：“他们认为，通过释放人工智能，最终你会得到一个比人类聪明 10 倍、100 倍或 1000 倍的机器人霸主。我的答案是不同的。我认为所有的证据都表明这些人工智能系统会思考，不像人类，但它们会非常聪明。我们将不得不共存。”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而对于元宇宙概念，罗永浩也直言“我不相信元宇宙会成为未来（游戏只是游戏）”“技术上还差得远，那种要发展到分不清真实和虚拟的程度才行”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https:\/\/static001.geekbang.org\/resource\/image\/e8\/e7\/e87d22a2b4e94dyy76e8b1460ca857e7.png","alt":null,"title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"据了解，元宇宙（Metaverse）的概念起源于科幻小说《雪崩》。1992 年，尼尔·斯蒂芬森描述了一个人们以虚拟形象在三维空间中与各种软件进行交互的世界。他在书中这样描述这个世界，“只要带上耳机和目镜，找到一个终端，就可以通过连接进入由计算机模拟的另一个三维现实，每个人都可以在这个与真实世界平行的虚拟空间中拥有自己的分身”，这个虚拟空间，就是“元宇宙”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"维基百科对元宇宙的定义是，通过虚拟增强的物理现实，呈现收敛性和物理持久性特征，基于未来互联网具有链接感知和共享特征的 3D 虚拟空间。"}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"元宇宙元年来了？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"虽然饱受质疑，但不可否认的是，元宇宙概念在诞生近 20 年后的今天，是真真实实地火了。一时间，元宇宙成为海内外大厂竞相布局的新阵地，这些大厂包括 Facebook、英伟达等等。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"扎克伯格对元宇宙寄予厚望，从公司改名就能看出他 "},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.infoq.cn\/article\/Zp1iOf6zrw5RuoRIcirI","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"all in 元宇宙"}]},{"type":"text","text":"的决心。同时，他还分享了自己建立“元世界”的计划：一个建立在我们自己的数字世界之上的数字世界，包括虚拟现实和增强现实。“我们相信元宇宙将会接替移动互联网”。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋在 6 月参加电玩展活动时也曾谈到对元宇宙的设想。“许多人不断谈论元宇宙，我相信我们正迈向元宇宙的风口浪尖。元宇宙是一个与真实世界互相连结、多人共享的虚拟世界，有真实的设计、实体经济。你有一个化身，这个化身属于你，或就是你本身，可能具有你的真实头像，或是一个代表角色”。8 月，英伟达宣布，全球首个为元宇宙建立提供基础的模拟和协作平台 — 英伟达 Omniverse™将通过与 Blender 和 Adobe 集成来实现大规模扩展，并将向数百万新用户开放。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在国内，也有不少大厂将目光瞄向元宇宙。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"腾讯早在 2012 年就进行了元宇宙布局，腾讯的元宇宙版图，囊括了社交、直播、电商、游戏等业务。在游戏领域，腾讯投资了美国元宇宙游戏开发商 Roblox。今年 4 月，游戏开发商 Epic 宣布获得 10 亿美元融资用于元宇宙业务开发，腾讯持有 Epic 40% 的股份。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"今年4月份，字节跳动斥资1亿元投资了元宇宙概念公司代码乾坤。官网显示，代码乾坤成立于2018年，公司产品有青少年创造和社交UGC平台《重启世界》。8 月，有消息称字节跳动将以 50 亿元人民币收购 Pico，正式入局 VR。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"有数据显示，随着新技术的不断开发，"},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https:\/\/www.thepaper.cn\/newsDetail_forward_14273951","title":"xxx","type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"虚拟现实元宇宙相关产业或将迎来爆发"}]},{"type":"text","text":"。招商证券认为，目前 VR 技术在产业应用领域不断地扩大，产业链条不断地完善，据 IDC 预测，全球虚拟现实产业规模年均增长率将达到约 54%。另据 WIND 数据显示，目前整个虚拟现实板块的市值高达 1.8 万亿。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"尽管热度很高，但目前，对于元宇宙，还没有统一的明确的概念。元宇宙的实现，既仰赖人工智能、VR\/VR、5G、云计算、大数据等基础设施的支持，又要求深入应用到行业中，并建立起生态，这都需要花费很长的时间。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"至于元宇宙概念究竟是泡沫还是未来，只能交给时间去验证。"}]}]}