鸿蒙能成为世界第三的操作系统吗？

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"6 月 2 日，鸿蒙又一场发布会如约而至。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"从诞生之初的「PPT 系统」、「按揭开源」，到源码公布后的「套皮安卓」、「抄袭可耻」，再到如今的立场屁股之争，鸿蒙用两年不到的时间搅动了天下风云。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Go 语言之父 Rob Pike 早在 2000 年的时候就说过，“系统软件研究不再有意思了。”而在那个年代，Android、iOS 系统尚未问世，第一支 Symbian 手机也刚上市，没有人能预料到后来的移动操作系统会有沧海桑田般的巨变。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"关于鸿蒙的技术原理和底层实现，我没有资格过多置喙。对于开源，我的态度向来很明确——让时间说真话。开源是建立信任、冲散阴影的最佳方式，每一次发版、每一次 issue 的反馈与解决，都是在给予社区最直观的态度。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"因此，对于鸿蒙，我的态度也很明确——不看它说了什么，要看它做了什么。从技术路线的角度看，现阶段兼容 Android 生态无可指摘，未来能在多大程度上真正做到自主可控，靠的也并非华为一家之功。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我对鸿蒙的期待是——先成为世界第三的操作系统吧！","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"世界第三，难吗？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"竞技体育曾有过一句名言——第二名是最大的输家。在商业层面上，这句话也同样成立，比如对技术、产品、资金资源要求颇高的云计算行业，就是一个赢家通吃的残酷战场。市场占有率最高的一方，一般都自带庞大的用户群体、规模化的开发者资源、强大而完善的社区生态。而第二名及以下的挑战者们，往往需要花费更多。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"另辟蹊径者不是没有，但成功者往往寥寥无几。操作系统领域并不是一个新事物，也远远谈不上什么新技术，这只是一个在 20 年前就被人评价为“没什么意思”了的行业。但在中国，操作系统行业却是“缺芯少魂”之痛中的重要一环。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"鸿蒙最终构建的蓝图，就是华为 slogan 的终极体现——构建万物互联的智能世界。但在现阶段来看，最受关注的，仍旧是在移动端发布的鸿蒙系统。可以预见的是，在未来的一段时间内，移动端鸿蒙系统仍旧是现阶段发展的重心和关注焦点。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"在 Android、iOS 雄霸的时代，也有过一批全新面貌的操作系统曾在两大巨头的夹缝中求生存。而时至今日，已经很少有人知道，谁曾是世界第三的操作系统。 ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Firefox OS，另辟蹊径的失败","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2016 年 2 月 5 日，是 Firefox OS 被盖棺定论的一天：2.6 版本后，Mozilla 将正式停止开发 Firefox OS。而这，距其诞生之日起不过 5 年时间。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Firefox OS 在设计之初，便选择了复用 Android 开源项目的代码，这种技术路线跟当前的鸿蒙有其相似之处，也是最为现实的选择。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"当时的这个项目被称为“Boot to Gecko”，底层实现被称之为 B2G 架构。这个架构的独特之处在于彻底去除了 Android 中的整个 Java 层，取而代之的是通过 Gecko 渲染 Web 内容，借此实现近乎裸机运行的性能表现。按照 Mozilla 工程师的说法，这种设计使得 B2G 在性能方面具备了非常先进的优势，可以让 Web 内容获得类似原生代码的运行表现。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/c5/c504d66c58b9466fa6328b9185147593.png","alt":"图片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"B2G 架构","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"工程实现上，B2G 项目开发团队证明了 Web 技术是可以用来打造智能手机的，同时整个 UI 界面也都可以用 HTML、CSS 和 JavaScript 来创建。2013 年的 MWC（世界移动通信大会）上，搭载 Firefox OS 的商业化手机正式亮相，首发设备包括 ZTE Open 和 Alcatel One Touch 两款手机。值得一提的是，华为后来也发布了搭载 Firefox OS 的智能手机——Ascend Y300II。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"那次的 MWC 让 Firefox OS 大出风头，甚至连其公关团队都没想到奥斯卡也没能抢走它的头条，与其一起出现在了 Twitter 的热榜上。而当时的 Firefox OS，甚至还远没有达到成熟的地步。看起来，它的未来好像无比光明。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"可对于 B2G 项目的成员来说，事实却并非如此。几乎团队所有人都赞同，Firefox OS 无法按照 Android 和 iOS 的路子战胜他们。功能上，赢不了 Google；设计上，干不过 Apple。另辟蹊径成了唯一的选择。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"B2G 团队的蹊径是——廉价版智能手机。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Firefox OS 喊出了连接下一群十亿用户的口号，选择去攻坚以印度为代表的新兴市场。这背后的选择基于这样一个判断：Firefox OS 需要规模化，而规模化只能去新兴市场找寻。我之前曾经写过一篇题为 ","attrs":{}},{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwNjYzNTcyNw==&mid=2674533861&idx=1&sn=72c80318a42b600e399d1b20340e8dd8&chksm=8194ec45b6e36553c4974106cee5b02598fb9310432ca07e87c8cc19c3dc52216809e6064339&scene=21#wechat_redirect","title":null,"type":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"《印度手机市场的诸神之战》","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"text","text":" 的文章，里面也介绍了当前印度手机市场的乱战，感兴趣的可以看一下。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Firefox OS 设计的廉价版智能手机有多厉害呢？只需要 128 MB 的 RAM 就可运行！在远远落后于同期 Android 设备的硬件基础上，Firefox OS 跑了起来，整机成本不到 35 美元。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"但最终结局并不美好，极低端的硬件基础虽然能跑起来，但不支持多任务，也没有吸引到主流应用厂商为其开发 Web 版本，软件生态相当匮乏。软件生态的点同样是鸿蒙未来发展的一大困境，究竟在多大程度上，会有国内厂商愿意开发鸿蒙版本应用？究竟有多少个人开发者愿意在鸿蒙系统上贡献自己的代码？也正是有这样的顾虑，当前阶段下兼容安卓是无可厚非的。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"新兴市场的确对手机有巨大的需求，可事实证明，他们要的是 iPhone，或者是性价比超高的智能手机，而不是廉价的智能手机。否则，他们宁愿使用功能机。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而这，又引出了另一个世界第三的故事。  ","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"KaiOS，当代世界第三","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"KaiOS 的 CEO Codevill 曾经跟 Firefox OS 有过一段缘分，他在 TCL 做工程师的时候曾为 Firefox OS 系统开发过一款低端智能机。谈到后来 Firefox OS 的失败，他认为其定位为智能手机平台是关键失误：只要是智能手机，大家就会拿它跟 Android 系统比，如果没有一个能跟 Android 媲美的生态系统，失败就是必然。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"后来 Codevill 开始创业以后，挖来了 30 多位前 Mozilla 员工一起开发 KaiOS 这个平台。他们将其定位为——更智能的功能手机。在 KaiOS 看来，一个基于 Web 的平台更适合从未使用过智能手机的人。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"KaiOS 与 Firefox OS 有很大的不同。例如，用户界面是基于物理按键和非触摸显示屏设计的。应用程序图标很小，屏幕底部有一个区域，带有“取消”和“确认”等输入选项。KaiOS 针对低端硬件平台进行了优化，它只需要 256MB 的内存就可以运行，从这个层面上看跟 Firefox OS 的思路不谋而合。但更重要的点是，它支持 3G、4G、WiFi、GPS 和 NFC 等等信号模式与功能。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/08/082d704d8fb5ddec1b8f443855bf8387.png","alt":"图片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"4G KaiOS 主界面","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"覆盘 Firefox OS 的失败时，我们发现没有得到主流软件厂商的支持是一个关键点。而 KaiOS 的运气就好多了：建立之初便与 Facebook、Twitter 建立了合作关系，随后更是得到了由 Google 牵头的融资，将谷歌的关键服务带给所有 KaiOS 用户。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/51/51ca91ca4802c3cfe880cab48c5fd551.png","alt":"图片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":"center","origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"KaiOS 界面中的 Google Assistant","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"2019 年 5 月，KaiOS 宣布完成了 5000 万美元的 B 轮融资，由 Cathay Innovation 领投，跟投公司包括 Google 和 TCL。截至目前，KaiOS 宣布其在世界范围内已经有超过一亿的用户规模，是名副其实的世界第三大操作系统。而且其所锚定的用户人群，也基本上确定了不会与 Android、iOS 产生正面竞争关系，真正摸索出了一条出路，但与前两者相比体量仍是云泥之别。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一亿用户的规模，就可以成为世界第三的操作系统，看起来好像也并不是那么难？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"heading","attrs":{"align":null,"level":2},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Fuchsia 和鸿蒙","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Fuchsia 和鸿蒙可能是被放在一起对比最多的新兴操作系统了：同样是新生事物，同样背靠大厂，同样起于物联网系统，同样野心勃勃。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"早在鸿蒙还是华为备胎的时候，Fuchsia 已经被放出风来是 Android 的替代品。为什么 Google 靠着 Android 系统几乎垄断了智能手机行业，却还要做一个新的操作系统来革自己的命？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"最可能的原因，还是在于基于 Linux 的 Android 系统的生态过于分裂。库克就经常在 WWDC 上嘲讽 Android 的升级数据，iOS 最新版本能接近 70%的升级率，而 Android 版本很多时候的升级率甚至在个位数。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Linux 里大部分开发者只关心服务器的世界，而 Android 为了弥补 Linux 上的缺点又打上了一个厚厚的中间层，不断地做着妥协。而 Google 的野心在于，它想构建一个多端适配的超级操作系统。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Fuchsia 是站在成熟操作系统肩膀上被设计出来的新型操作系统，其分层模块化的设计使得 Fuchsia 可以非常方便地剪裁定制操作系统，以用于手机、平板、笔记本电脑等智能设备，以及路由器、智能音箱、机器人，甚至是 Google 的无人驾驶汽车。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"而在早前的 5 月 25 日，Google 终于向市场推出了 Fuchsia OS：从 Nest Hub 开始，这个新操作系统可以在实际的消费类设备上运行了。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"image","attrs":{"src":"https://static001.geekbang.org/infoq/29/2935f02e815585221c478c67bba20000.png","alt":"图片","title":null,"style":[{"key":"width","value":"75%"},{"key":"bordertype","value":"none"}],"href":null,"fromPaste":true,"pastePass":true}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"据报道，Nest Hub 基于 Fuchsia OS 的更新会在未来几个月内陆续推出，考虑到界面和体验将保持不变，用户可能不会有直接的感知。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"考虑到界面和体验将保持不变，用户可能不会有直接的感知","attrs":{}}]}],"attrs":{}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"这样的表述有没有觉得有些类似？没错，鸿蒙开始推送升级的时候，有人就发现华为手机用户的数据并不会被抹除，从体验上看感知并不大。也正是因为数据不会被清除的特性，鸿蒙再次被质疑为套皮安卓。但在我个人看来，国内华为手机用户的庞大数量，注定了其并不会有一步到位的激进升级，否则用户体验会大打折扣。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"我之前因为工作关系，跟华为内部另一条操作系统线的技术同学有些交流，也跟中科院软件所、拓林思的操作系统专家们有过几次采访。我发现，不论是服务器操作系统，还是移动端操作系统亦或是桌面操作系统，整体行业已经在国外数十年的领先和耕耘下形成了巨大的先发、垄断优势。国内的操作系统领域技术人才、操作系统市场规模都太小，无法形成健康的生态让行业真正地运转起来。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"对于鸿蒙，最大的挑战不在于技术。事实上华为公司在 Linux 的贡献度上一直是国内企业的前列，技术储备基本没有问题。真正的难题还是开发者规模和合作伙伴生态，前者的 iOS 约有 2400 万开发者，后者的 Android 约有 2000 万开发者，而鸿蒙的口径只有百万级。合作伙伴生态层面，国内主流手机厂商对于鸿蒙的接受程度有多高存疑，主流软件厂商对鸿蒙的投入程度存疑。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"按鸿蒙掌舵人王成录的说法，2 亿存量华为手机的鸿蒙升级如果给用户较好的体验，可能让鸿蒙生态能站住脚来，而未来的两年则期望硬件问题能够得到解决，在移动端卷土重来。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"事实依旧很难，但在核心技术领域想取得突破向来不是一件容易的事。当前国内对于鸿蒙的期待有些过于超前，对于鸿蒙的质疑也有些过于刺耳。如果 2 亿华为手机能成功升级到鸿蒙系统，去重之后的用户规模应该就能追上 KaiOS 了，那么先成为一个世界第三的操作系统或许是当前最实际的目标。","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"至于未来究竟能否实现真正意义上的万物互联，华为搞不定的，难道 Google 就行了？","attrs":{}}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"indent":0,"number":0,"align":null,"origin":null},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"饭要一口一口吃，让时间说真话吧。","attrs":{}}]}]}